How did you do in the market this year?

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I've made no secret of my investments on this board over the past 5 or so years.
Mostly VLO, TSO, and SUN. I've messed a bit with apple, yahoo and qualcomm in the 90's, all with some sucesss but nothing mind-boggling.
I took everything I had and in 1998 put it in UDS at $22, which became VLO. It went off the charts doubling about 6 times and splittling twice. I took some of that money early on and got into TSO at around $9 IIRC. I rode it up to around $50, then out and back in several times. I only timed it wrong twice that I remember but didn't lose much, just missed potential.
Now onto 2007: Last December I sold half my VLO and bought back into TSO at $71. In March I sold for around $105 IIRC (it peaked at $125, i got out a little early). I got back in a few months ago at $53.80 after the split and sold after 10 days for $65 and change. Thanks Kirk Kekorian. A quick $70k profit in 10 days, that helps. My VLo was up quite a bit over 2007, I got out in late March and back in around halloween with a couple of short trades inbetween. When out I was shuffling the money between vangard mutuals, precious metals (missed the big jump but still made a little) and money market.

I tend to trade these independent oil stocks seasonally. I like to get in around December and out early to late spring, and back in off and on depending on market conditions, fuel supplies, expected demand, etc. I am almost always out of them in October and November. They tend to drop after September.

Now one thing I do religiously, is treat this as paper money only, not real. I don't pull any out, i don't spend it, ever. I simply re-invest it over and over. It is for my retirement and is not to be touched no matter what before then.

I recently bought back into TSO at around $47 (1/3 of portfolio) VLO at $66 (1/4), and the rest is currently split up between three vangard funds. We'll see how I do. I expect TSO to hit $75 by April and VLO to hit $80. It's all a big guess tho, don't take my word on it. It could go down as easily as us but so far it hasn't.

DISCLAIMER: I'm currently employed by one of these companies, but all information I use and have access to is public information, absolutely no insider information. Ever. I'm too far down the food chain for that. Mostly I use the DOE energy information website http://www.eia.doe.gov/ and previous experience and knowledge of the industry.

Sammy,

I see lot's of info about things that happened in the past but I'm not so sure that you clearly answered my request. Perhaps you misunderstood so I'll rephrase it:

What will be your major investment choice (choices) for 2008? And please not something so vague as "index fund" or similar. Something that actually has a symbol or name and that any broker might recognize would be great.

Thank you.

[the]

I think some people are just lucky. It seems like the same people that consistently and easily make +30% in the market (net, all market investments combined) year in and year out are also the same people whose houses don't decline in value, when all the other house in their areas are declining.

Some people are just lucky, everything they touch turns to gold.

[WI wide body]

Also fin,

How did YOUR index funds perform in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002?

Just curious.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Okay then, so exactly what index fund will all of your investment cash be in this year?

Just want to get it on the record.

Thanx much.

"Why do you "want it on the record?" It must suck to be such a loser...always trying to prove that you are smarter than everyone else...like no one could possibly have done somethiung you haven't. FYI, I plan to keep mine in the Federal Employee Thrift Saving Plan I Fund this year...as long as I keep getting these great returns. Obviously, I will not ask you before changing if market conditions change.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Also fin,

How did YOUR index funds perform in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002?

Just curious.

These are the returns reported for the funds that I was invested in for 1998, 20.09%, 1999, 26.72%, 2000, -14.17%, 2001 5.39%, 2002, 5.00%. How about you? Just curious.

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by fintstone

"Why do you "want it on the record?" It must suck to be such a loser...always trying to prove that you are smarter than everyone else...like no one could possibly have done somethiung you haven't. FYI, I plan to keep mine in the Federal Employee Thrift Saving Plan I Fund this year...as long as I keep getting these great returns. Obviously, I will not ask you before changing if market conditions change.

And how much "changing" did you do...roughly...to get those 26.32%, 20.00%, and 37.94% returns?

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by fintstone

These are the returns reported for the funds that I was invested in for 1998, 20.09%, 1999, 26.72%, 2000, -14.17%, 2001 5.39%, 2002, 5.00%. How about you? Just curious.

Does that include all charges, fees, expenses and does it include any contributions during the year?

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by the

I think some people are just lucky. It seems like the same people that consistently and easily make +30% in the market (net, all market investments combined) year in and year out are also the same people whose houses don't decline in value, when all the other house in their areas are declining.

Some people are just lucky, everything they touch turns to gold.

Maybe they just make better choices...

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

And how much "changing" did you do...roughly...to get those 26.32%, 20.00%, and 37.94% returns?

Those are the yearly returns for the respective fund. I changed twice between 1998 and the present. I was in the International fund until 2001. In 2001, After losing the 14.7 percent in 2000, I moved my funds to the Treasury-backed G fund for safety until 2003 when I moved the money back to the International fund from 2003 to the present..

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Does that include all charges, fees, expenses and does it include any contributions during the year?

Expenses run from about .01% to about .03% not sure if included and don't feel like looking it up. There are no other expenses. Those are the fund's reported returns...so contributions do not affect the fund's overall return. The bulk of my investment remains in the same fund for the entire year with no withdrawals and new money dollar cost averaged.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Sammy,

I see lot's of info about things that happened in the past but I'm not so sure that you clearly answered my request. Perhaps you misunderstood so I'll rephrase it:

What will be your major investment choice (choices) for 2008? And please not something so vague as "index fund" or similar. Something that actually has a symbol or name and that any broker might recognize would be great.

Thank you.

In that post is most of the information you are asking for. I posted what I've been doing over the past 5 years, what I am doing right now, and what I will be doing over the next 4 or 5 months. I have about 1/3 in TSO 1/4 in VLO, and plan to sell em in late spring or early summer and get back in around late November or December.
Currently I have just under 1/3 of my assets spread out between a Vanguard multi-cap core portfolio which is not publicly quoted but available directly through merrill lynch, Oakmark CL I fund (OAKMX), Fidelity Puritan fund (FPURX), some in Spartan International Index Fund - Investor Class (FSIIX). The remaining balance is in safe lower yield bond funds. I typically insist on low load funds.

I haven't decided what I will do with the money when I sell TSO and VLO, I'll make that decision based on market coditions.

I do not believe in day trading but I also believe in conservative market timing. I trade based on conditions and seasons, and might move a significant amount of money around every couple of months. sometimes more often, sometimes less.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by the

I think some people are just lucky. It seems like the same people that consistently and easily make +30% in the market (net, all market investments combined) year in and year out are also the same people whose houses don't decline in value, when all the other house in their areas are declining.

Some people are just lucky, everything they touch turns to gold.

Not sure if that is directed at me or not, but it sounds like you are insinuating that someone here is either exaggerating or lying. Please set me straight if that is not so. I may have misunderstood and if so I appologize.

In 2007 I made well over a 40% profit from my investments and it was probably my worst trading year this decade.
I've detailed my trading startegy over the past several years, I even linked to a thread which I've used almost as a trading blog. In that thread, I recently posted a prediction about TSO and posted that I bought about 6100 shares. TEN DAYS later that stock shot up over 20% and I sold, making about a $70k profit in just 10 days. Several other posters followed suit and made a good chunk of change also.
I've been talking about VLO abnd TSO for many years on this board and others. Since I started recommending them, VLO is up twelve-fold and TSO is up almost that much.

During the time I had all my money split up between TSO and VLO I was averaging 100% PER YEAR profit. Since then the stocks have leveled off a bit and I've become much more conservative and don't put all my eggs in one or two baskets anymore.
It's all there, if necessary I can post links to similar posts recommending VLO and TSO and talking about my investments here and on www.914club.com etc going back many years. My posts, my investments and the dates, the stock charts, they are all there in black and white. No exaggeration at all.

[John_AZ]

Sammyg2 is in an enviable position with a solid return on his 3 stocks.
MSN Money has a site called Strategy Lab where 6 pro managers with 6 different investing strategies get $100,000 for 6 months. Starting July 13, 2007 Ken Kam is down 11.06%. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StrategyLab/Rnd16/P1/Portfolio.aspx
He is a fan of Valero. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/StrategyLab/Rnd16/P1/AllStarTeamJournal20071015.aspx
6 months does not make a year, but it shows a pro can have a bad stretch.

John_AZ

[fintstone]

Pros have limitations that regular guys do not. Most funds are limited to certain types of stock, what percentage of a company they can own, how much they must diversify, etc. It is easier for the average joe to generate a big return.

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Those are the yearly returns for the respective fund. I changed twice between 1998 and the present. I was in the International fund until 2001. In 2001, After losing the 14.7 percent in 2000, I moved my funds to the Treasury-backed G fund for safety until 2003 when I moved the money back to the International fund from 2003 to the present..

So actually you were "in" a TSP rather mthan a true index fund?

And between 1999 and 2003 you actually had a negative total return?

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Those are the yearly returns for the respective fund. I changed twice between 1998 and the present. I was in the International fund until 2001. In 2001, After losing the 14.7 percent in 2000, I moved my funds to the Treasury-backed G fund for safety until 2003 when I moved the money back to the International fund from 2003 to the present..

So actually you were "in" a TSP rather than a true index fund?

And between 1999 and 2003 you actually had a negative total return?

[WI wide body]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

In that post is most of the information you are asking for. I posted what I've been doing over the past 5 years, what I am doing right now, and what I will be doing over the next 4 or 5 months. I have about 1/3 in TSO 1/4 in VLO, and plan to sell em in late spring or early summer and get back in around late November or December.
Currently I have just under 1/3 of my assets spread out between a Vanguard multi-cap core portfolio which is not publicly quoted but available directly through merrill lynch, Oakmark CL I fund (OAKMX), Fidelity Puritan fund (FPURX), some in Spartan International Index Fund - Investor Class (FSIIX). The remaining balance is in safe lower yield bond funds. I typically insist on low load funds.

I haven't decided what I will do with the money when I sell TSO and VLO, I'll make that decision based on market coditions.

I do not believe in day trading but I also believe in conservative market timing. I trade based on conditions and seasons, and might move a significant amount of money around every couple of months. sometimes more often, sometimes less.

Just so that I get it correct...you are saying that right now fot 2008 all of your money is in TSO and VLO excepting the funds you mentioned?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by nostatic

I could usually find decent Fuji apples, although they were harder to come by late in the year. Other produce was steady. It was sometimes hard to find organic yogurt and soy milk for my black sesame smoothies. But in general a decent year in the market.

Truly funny.

I get sick and tired of it all.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

So actually you were "in" a TSP rather mthan a true index fund?

And between 1999 and 2003 you actually had a negative total return?

The TSP international fund is a "true index fund"...and no, I did not...unless you are trying to say from 2000 through 2002

Try the math again: 1999, 26.72%; 2000, -14.17%; 2001 5.39%; 2002 5.00%; 2003; 37.94

Of course I will take one bad year to get these returns:
1998, 20.09%, 1999, 26.72%; 2000, -14.17%; 2001 5.39%; 2002 5.00%; 2003; 37.94, 2004, 20.00%; 2005, 13.63%; 2006, 26.32%

Sheesh, what a troll.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by WI wide body

Just so that I get it correct...you are saying that right now fot 2008 all of your money is in TSO and VLO excepting the funds you mentioned?

FOR YOUR RECORD:

I currenty have approximately ONE THIRD of my total portfolio invested in TESORO and approximately ONE QUARTER of my total portfolio invested in VALERO.
I have apporovimately ONE THIRD of my total portfolio invested in the MUTUAL FUNDS listed. Just as I have posted over and over again.
Should I type it slower?