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-   -   Single Stock Pick for 2008 (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/385114-single-stock-pick-2008-a.html)

competentone 10-09-2008 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRM (Post 4229523)
Compe, perhaps you can enlighten us on the definition of what "money" is. You know, what separates money from barter. If you can do that, perhaps I'll allow Tabs' to engage you in conversation.

I'll give you a hint, "money" has three properties. Name them and you'll define money. Gold is a metal. It has no inherent value. It is valuable because we place value on it. It is also one of the worst historical investments you can make. Factoring for inflation, gold has about another 50% to go before it hits its 1970s-era highs. I can tell you from personal (family) experience, that when the revolution comes and society collapses, gold has no value. After you give us a good definition of money, I'll tell you the story of the gold ingots my wife inherited that made it through the 1930s to 1980s without being spent - in the PRC.

"Money" is what the economy chooses as money.

Read the Mises link:

http://mises.org/story/3122

As for life during the communist revolution in the People's Republic of China (I think I've explained this to you before), when a government effectively destroys the economy -- by prohibiting the use of private capital -- most traditional "monetary instruments" would have little to no value.

Money is an economic tool that allows for the indirect exchange of goods producers have created. If one exists in an economy where government edict has destroyed production, traditional goods used for money -- like gold -- could certainly have little value.

Again, rather than me restate an explanation of money similar to that provided at the Mises site, why don't you just read the explanation there.

(I know all the Keynesian arguments about money and, quite frankly, am tired of refuting arguments that have already been thoroughly refuted by the Austrian School of economics.)

MRM 10-09-2008 07:36 PM

I don't think you understand the Keynesians. Richard Nixon said we're all Keynesians now. No one disputes the underlying theory of Keyenes. It just doesn't go far enough to explain modern economics. That's where Uncle Milt and the Chicago School comes in. Austrians? No one cares about the Austrians. The only modern economists worth a phenning came from the University of Chicago School, especiatially the Rational Expectationists. If you can do an ISLM curve for me, I'll listen to your economic analysis. If not, not.

Here's the deal. Money is what money does. Money has three properties: 1) it is a store of value; 2) it is a measure of value; and 3) it is a medium of exchange.

Gold is particularly poor at anything other than storing value, and it's pretty bad at that. What are you going to do with gold when society crashes and the zombies come? Throw it at them? No one will want your gold when society crashes because they can't do anything with it. That's why I inherited ingots of gold that made it through the 1930s, WWII and the Cultural Revolution in China. Why didn't Grandpa sell it? What was he going to sell it for, he asked. There was nothing he could trade the gold for, so it sat in his dresser until his grand daughter escaped the country and his rich American decendents could do something with it. And if you're not holding gold for the day the zombies take over, why do you have it? An asset that sits in your closet collecting dust, never to be used, is no better than money lost in the market.

Shadetree930 12-21-2008 05:36 AM

Bump .... almost time for the fat lady to sing.

lendaddy 12-21-2008 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prials (Post 4372275)
Bump .... almost time for the fat lady to sing.

Hold on, the truck is almost full of AAPL :D

TyFenn 12-26-2008 03:18 PM

All I can really say is OUCH!

Shadetree930 12-31-2008 12:19 PM

Quiet please! ...... Drum Roll .......


Ladies and Gentlemen! The results of the 2008 Stock Pick thread are ........

jyl 01-02-2009 09:24 AM

are we going to have a stock pick thread for 2009?

Plavan 01-02-2009 09:54 AM

Watch Amgen in 2009..... AMGN

Dottore 01-02-2009 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Plavan (Post 4392863)
Watch Amgen in 2009..... AMGN

Why exactly?

Will it be acquired?

Plavan 01-02-2009 10:48 AM

Amgen is the only Biotech with an actual pipeline. Should be launching another blockbuster (bone builder) in late 2009, preliminary data keeps pushing the stock higher (check history/press releases). Hiring additional sales force mid 2009.

Thats all. Better outlook than most.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/inc/news/tickerredir.asp?Feed=AP&Date=20081231&ID=9480856&S ymbol=AMGN

Rob Channell 01-02-2009 07:51 PM

So who had the best stock pick and what was it? From the 10/09/08 printout it looked like the best option was to stick it under your mattress where you could lose 0% instead of 20% or more.

kstar 01-20-2009 09:25 PM

Here are today's closing prices - I haven't yet done a final port based on the 2008 year end closing, but will get it out this week.

Not a very good year for anyone long just about anything.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1232519118.jpg

gprsh924 01-21-2009 05:24 AM

Congrats to Lubemaster77 for picking on Exxon, because with a healthy return of -18%, he is the winner.

lendaddy 01-21-2009 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lendaddy (Post 3711116)
Is there a vehicle to short the Pelican OT fund?

I know it doesn't count as an official entry but it's rare I get to toot my horn.

toot toot.

PPOTSBF (Pelican Parts Off Topic Short Bear Fund) +54.22%

RWebb 01-21-2009 01:13 PM

I'll give you a toot for that one

kstar 07-01-2012 04:52 PM

It's been a while since 2008, but here's the PPOT Portfolio as of the close on Friday, May 29, 2012:

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1341190322.jpg

FWIW, my pick was AAPL. 8D

How's that PPOTSBF doing, lendaddy?

Best To You All,

lendaddy 07-01-2012 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kstar (Post 6834068)

How's that PPOTSBF doing, lendaddy?

Best To You All,

Well, since the original challenge was "Starting at Monday's closing price, state your single best stock pick for the 2008 calendar year."

I cashed out back then at a healthy profit, you never asked me to invest my gains :)

kstar 07-01-2012 05:33 PM

Very good, sir! :-)

I need to check and see how the PPOT Port. did against the S&P over the same time period. I'm guessing the S&P was a better place for capital.

Best,


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