Still think Ron Paul has no chance?

[Rick Lee]

Ron Paul, Dr. No-body, beats Rudy and Fred--again

Well, he's hanging in there. Not only that, but Rep. Ron Paul thumped two reputed Republican heavyweights in the Michigan primary -- former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Who'd have predicted that a couple of months ago?

Giuliani, you may recall if you can remember anything as distant as last summer, was the longtime GOP national front-runner in polls. He ran strongly against everybody in his party, even former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who finally won one last night, taking his home state from Sen. John McCain, who won there in 2000. Everybody wondered if anyone had a chance against the hero of 9/11, who defied standard Republican theocracy with his liberal social views.

But, guess what? Ron Paul, the 72-year-old Texas congressman and ob-gyn who delivers babies and a strict view of the Constitution, beat Giuliani in Michigan. And beat him good. Not only that,....

he doubled Giuliani's totals of 24,000 votes or 2.8%, getting more than 52,000 votes or 6.3% of the total Republican ballots.

Paul even beat Thompson this time, the real consistent conservative who was supposed to be the next Ronald Reagan until he actually announced his campaign in September. Thompson got about 31,000 votes or 3.7%, which is more than Rudy but still less than the nobody congressman with the libertarian views who few people but his passionate partisans took seriously months ago. He's often called Dr. No for his consistent congressional votes against spending.

Paul was so written off that Fox News banned him from its recent debate in New Hampshire. Oops, now the Paulunteers are organizing a boycott of Fox sponsors in return for the snub, a move that Dennis Kucinich's fans are now calling for against MSNBC for barring him from Tuesday's Democratic debate in Las Vegas.

True, Romney killed all his Republican competitors in Michigan, as he had to, with more than 326,000 votes, nearly 39%, with McCain trailing at 29.7% or 248,000. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee garnered less than half of Romney's votes, 135,000 or 16%.

And it's also true that Thompson and Giuliani didn't really campaign seriously in Michigan. Or New Hampshire. Or Iowa except for a last-minute Thompson bus tour. Obviously, both Giuliani and Thompson are intentionally laying back, trying to make the rest of the Republican field over-confident. No doubt.

Paul hasn't won anything yet either, except the continued devotion of his followers and growing national attention, including two national TV appearances on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" plus a full hour on "Meet the Press." OnTuesday Richard Viguerie, the noted conservative author, announced he's launching a new website to support Paul. Viguerie called Paul "truly a principled conservative in the grand tradition of Robert Taft, Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan."

Paul just keeps picking up his 6% to 10% each time there's a vote. But Paul also beat Giuliani in Iowa. And he came pretty close to Giuliani in New Hampshire and did, in fact, beat Thompson there. And now in Michigan, Paul beat them both rather handily. He does it by going against virtually all the views of his GOP colleagues including opposing the Iraq war.

Fueled by the generous donations of Paul believers, the congressman was probably the most successful GOP fundraiser in the fourth quarter, acquiring nearly $20 million then and, according to his website, more than $834,000 more so far this month. He's already launched an eight-state ad blitz and has been campaigning in recent days in South Carolina, where he has three offices and will return later this week, and across Nevada. He got skunked in Wyoming where Romney won, but imagine if Paul scored big one day in the wild West where many people believe government got too big about 100 years ago.

Paul's website and new campaign blog claim to have quietly organized more than 7,800 precinct captains around the country. Meantime, Giuliani's top staff is going unpaid this month to save dwindling funds. Is there a pattern here?

So, while the "front-running" Republicans each win one state and no one builds up a head of steam, Paul just keeps hanging around, like a bad cold. Some of the other Republican candidates should be careful, lest they get the sniffles one of these days.

--Andrew Malcolm

[kach22i]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229213/

Candidate Votes % of votes Delegates won Projected winner
Mitt Romney 337,847 39% 23
John McCain 257,521 30% 6
Mike Huckabee 139,699 16% 1
Ron Paul 54,434 6% 0
Fred Thompson 32,135 4% 0
Rudy Giuliani 24,706 3% 0
Uncommitted 17,971 2%
Duncan Hunter 2,823 0%

54,000 votes for Ron Paul with Thompson + Giuliani = 54,000 votes together (approx.).

[lendaddy]

Neither Thompson nor Rudy campaigned in Michigan.


And yes, he has no chance

[Gogar]

I like Ron Paul, but arguing that he's viable because He LOST the LEAST doesn't hold much water for me.

[Tim Hancock]

Still think Ron Paul has no chance?

Pretty much

[kach22i]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

So, while the "front-running" Republicans each win one state and no one builds up a head of steam, Paul just keeps hanging around, like a bad cold.

--Andrew Malcolm

The Ron Paul flu.

[jyl]

THe difference between 6% and 39% is a whole lot bigger than the difference between 6% and 4% than the Paulies are getting excited about.

Plus wasn't MI Rep primary influenced by Dems and indeps crossing over to vote? Some of them prob voted Paul just to mess w/ things.

[legion]

I think Ron Paul has no chance.

I'm behind 99% of his views, so this is not a slam, but a realistic assessment.

Even assuming Ron Paul gets the Repub nomination, the Democratic nominee would kill him. Ron Paul is an idealogical purist, which I see as his greatest strength and greatest weakness. I assume whoever gets the Dem nomination will instead speak to public opinion. (What answer polls the highest?) Ron Paul is apt to say a lot of unpopular things--even though they may be correct. The Dem he would be running against would seize on those things and run him into the ground.

[kach22i]

Originally Posted by jyl

Plus wasn't MI Rep primary influenced by Dems and indeps crossing over to vote? Some of them prob voted Paul just to mess w/ things.

That was me and a dozen friends of mine.

[Rick Lee]

I don't think Paul was helped by independents in MI. If anything McCain was hurt by their low turnout due to bad weather. I don't think Paul has a chance either. But I can't recall there ever being a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate that was healthier for the debate than Ron Paul. At some point the top tier guys, and indeed the media, are gonna have to come to terms with why Paul has raised so much money (in small increments too) and has such passionate supporters. The longer this horse race gets drawn out, the more time Paul has to influence the debate. I think this is a good thing.

[Chocaholic]

I have to agree with Chris (above). He's not electable, and his results in Michigan are, by comparison, in the noise floor.

[billwagnon]

but he was a good pope

[lendaddy]

Rick,

I think the facts that he has raised (and spent) so much money and his supporters are so rabid is really more evidence of his irrelevance.

Even with all that he hovers around 5% and barely beats guys that spent $0 in the state. These are not selling points.

[Rearden]

Yes, Ron Paul never did, and never will, have a chance.

[legion]

This country's voters punish brutal honesty. We prefer to be lied to.

Fat? It's not your fault!
In debt up to your eyeballs? It's not your fault!
Murderous thug? It's not your fault!

[5axis]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I don't think Paul has a chance either. But I can't recall there ever being a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate that was healthier for the debate than Ron Paul. At some point the top tier guys, and indeed the media, are gonna have to come to terms with why Paul has raised so much money (in small increments too) and has such passionate supporters. The longer this horse race gets drawn out, the more time Paul has to influence the debate. I think this is a good thing.

+1 Perhaps the top tier will recognize a constituency out there that needs to be addressed. A little tilt in the libertarian direction might not be a bad thing.

[Moses]

I'll proudly cast my vote for Ron Paul if I get the opportunity. It will be nice to leave the polling booth without feeling sick to my stomach.

I don't care if he's "electable" or not. I've been complaining for years that there is no politician who represents me, a social liberal and fiscal conservative. Here comes Ron Paul. I agree with 90% of his views. He's a principled libertarian and for once I'm feeling good about voting. I don't care if he's electable or not. He'll get my vote as a matter of principle.

[varmint]

i tried to tell you al ron paul was a loon. that he had a lot of creepy supporters. that he didn't have a chance in hell. i voted for him in 88 when i was 19 and drunk out of my mind every day. you guys don't have that excuse.

[Rearden]

Ron Paul hasn't fooled all libertarians

___________________

For several weeks prior to the revelations about Ron Paul's even-uglier views, The New Individualist dared to stand virtually alone within pro-freedom community in challenging Cong. Paul's credentials as a standard-bearer for liberty. The point of our article, as Steve Green put it, was that Ron Paul "only discredits the cause of liberty by associating it with his own weird and dangerous brand of utopianism." That conclusion is proving to be not only a correct assessment but a considerable understatement.

Many libertarians and free-market supporters now openly worry about the damage that his candidacy has caused to the public reputation of their ideas and movement. The outpouring of public criticism against Ron Paul by responsible libertarians and mainstream media now makes our TNI feature -- even that satirical "monster" cover, reprinted below -- look increasingly accurate, if not downright prescient.

[hardflex]

Don't let anyone "spin" it for you. Vote your principles

Vote for people who will take the country in the direction you want it to go.

Have faith in the system. It can work