crime in NYC: lead and roe?

[nostatic]

From another board. I did *not* write this, but I'd be interested to get pelican perspective on this theory:

"New York still suffers from a reputation that is about two decades out of date. For the last decade it has been the safest large city in the USA (cities with population of at least 100,000), and one of the safest in the world. It’s crime rate continues to drop. Some of this is due to draconian efforts of our prior mayor, now running to be nominated for president, but most of it reflects two historical happenstances in the early 1970s that had there measurable impact beginning about 15 years later, before our prior mayor was elected, and impacting reduced and reducing crime rates in nearly all of the US. In 1972 lead-based paints were banned in the US. Very small children who ate chips of pealing lead-based paints (they taste sweet from the lead) in 15 to 20 years will have greatly reduced impulse control and greatly increased likelihood to be violent. As more and more lead based paint disappeared with building renovation and replacement, the impact of the ban increased. A the risk of initiating a controversial flaming, in 1973 Roe v. Wade (the legalization of abortion in the US) was passed, and beginning 15 years later fewer unwanted children were around to misbehave. There are credible studies to support both positions."

[legion]

There is still plenty of lead paint in a city as old as New York.

[strupgolf]

I also read a article on this and it's interesting, might be true, cant say it's not.

[DanielDudley]

Roe VS Wade is OK, but real Sportsmen like to throw em back and wait until they are bigger.

[RoninLB]

other than being a contributing factor it's mostly bs.

[red-beard]

The crime stats have a lot more to do with the Pill than Roe vs. Wade, or lead paint. The baby bust, 1965-1979, there was a huge downturn in the USA in the number of babies born.

[MRM]

I am sure they all contribute something, but any economist can tell you correlation without causation means nothing.

The fact is that there was a huge effect on street crime in NYC from breaking the mafia, which happened through expanded use of the RICO Act in the 80s, urban planning which got rid of or contained the combat zones in the City, and aggressive enforcement of petty crimes and zoning violations - the so-called broken window effect. Then there was the general increase in incomes from the 80s and 90s, and it was the perfect storm for reducing crime.

[Hugh R]

I think its BS, if you look at the demographics, there are less of those 15 to 20 y/o's around to cause problems.

[Tishabet]

There's a fairly recent book which deals with this in detail... it's either Freakanomics or The Tipping Point. Interesting correlation, but by no means definitive.

[p911dad]

That is an interesting hypothosis for sure. I just remember NYC being a place out of control in many neighborhoods with crazy stuff happening during the 70's and 80's. I think that the current state is a result of many positive things happening, and enforcement of the law is one of them. Rudy and his administration started with the small stuff, like littering and small drug dealers and just kept pushing until they took the streets back. Don't ever forget that beyond the circle of the firelight the wolves are out there.
The writers are living some happy dream that they are somehow not there. Those creeps need the cane and more. Rudy is the man.

[RoninLB]

At one time, and still to some degree, the wildest 4th of July suicide action was PD roof duty in the projects.

Rudy backed the PD doing Mission Impossible street enforcement. Forget about it being socially correct. He also handled the politics involved to the point even the NY Times wouldn't screw with him.

[Dantilla]

Lead paint and Roe v. Wade were national changes. How can they be responsible for a change in NYC alone?

Did the crime rate drop equally nationwide? If not, there is more to the story....