How many years before a economic turnaround

[tonypeoni]

Im going to define this as pre 9/11. I firmly believe the economic boom of the 90s will never be enjoyed again within the lifespan of most of us pelicans.

[legion]

You are correct.

We would have had a recession in '98, but the Asian Financial Crisis sent tons of investment dollars into the safe haven of the U.S.. So rather than flame out in '98, the economy heated up even more, and money was thrown at marginal projects just as the Internet was getting going, giving us the Dot-Com boom. It was really a fluke of circumstance.

That said, money fled into real estate after the dot-com bust, and is now moving from RE to commodities. It will be 2-3 years before we have a recovery.

[LakeCleElum]

We'll never have a full recovery until the dollar improves against the value of foreign currencies.

That will never happen until we stop deficit spending.

That will never happen under our current political system where out elected officials won't make the "hard choices". The make all their decisions based on how many votes they can get in the next election.

We must also once again "export" real products. Having all of our workforce sitting in a cubicle, doesn't do much in the way of producing a product to sell overseas.

At the end of the day, it does not mean the sky is falling and our county is going broke. It means instead of being the #1, we might have to settle for being #8, #12 or whatever. It means we can have a recovery, but everyone has lower paying jobs. It means real estate and the stock market make gentle gains instead of giant leaps???????

I think the boon times we saw in the '90's are gone for at least another generation....

[jjwood]

Three questions:

1) Do you think that the $ costs of the Iraq war have had a "substantial" effect on our economic situation?

2) Do you think that the outcome of the presidential election will have a "substantial" effect on our economic situation?

3) Based on your answer to 2), should this impact for whom we vote?

[2.7RACER]

There are many reasons for this recent "slowdown".
The continued trade imbalance, particularly with the Chinese.
The "sailor on leave" deficit spending by the Congress and GWB.
The cost of the Iraq war. The true cost is much greater than has been published.
Of course the housing sub prime mortgage issue.
And not the least the collapse of the housing bubble.
The escalating cost of oil, part of it a reflection of the falling dollar.

This economic boat grounded hard isn't going to right itself until the government decides to balance spending.
Part of that will be the realization we cannot afford to continue in Iraq. The cost is too high.
The housing market will need a minimum of two years to clear itself.
The imbalance of trade with China cannot be solved quickly, even with a falling dollar.
The only way oil prices will stabilize or fall is a worldwide economic slowdown.
The price of fuel will increase in the US because the dollar will continue to fall in the near term.
Until we in the US get our economic house in order, like federal spending and foriegn trade, we can expect more difficulty, along with a lower standard of living.
Vote for whomever admits we are in deep trouble along with a plan to curb spending, balance the federal budget, and reduce the imbalance of trade.
We cannot borrow our way out of this, there is no magic bullet.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I see difficult times ahead. And the warning signs have been there for quite a while.

- A housing market that MUST drop on the order of 50% or so in order to return to anything resembling sustainability

- A weak (and still falling) dollar

- Government that cannot and does not stop spending money it doesn't have

- A generation of people with entitlement complexes demanding government services and benefits they're not entitled to and which the government cannot afford (see above)

- Insatiable energy demand, fueled almost entirely by foreign oil, with few or no legitimate efforts being made to change it

- A negative national savings rate

- An endless multi-billion dollar war in Iraq

- An educational system that has completely failed nationally

- A health care system that is failing nationally

- U.S. manufacturing getting absolutely crushed/decimated by the Chinese and the ensuing trade deficit

- EXTREMELY short-sighted and selfish decision-making processes on the part of most American households (e.g. "screw the gas prices, I want that 7,000-pound SUV that gets 8 MPG because it'll grow my penis")

- A progressively business-unfriendly, over-regulated and restrictive climate in this country, stifling entepreneurship



I can go on, but I don't want this to turn into Monty Python's "I'm So Worried" skit. Point is, there are a lot of very big, very serious problems with no easy or obvious solutions. The empty platitudes spewed forth from (worthless) politicians does little to allay my concerns that a very long, deep period of recession is upon us and will likely not end anytime soon.

[fintstone]

Blaming the military and the war on terror is just silly. Military spending as a percentage of GDP has risen very little...and is very low compared to historic levels.

[svandamme]

poll would suggest y'all are genuine optimists?

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Blaming the military and the war on terror is just silly. Military spending as a percentage of GDP has risen very little...and is very low compared to historic levels.

Agreed and far too many people watch the news and believe everything that they see or hear there. If you look at the data, unemployment stats and so on its a different story.

[the]

What's a different story?

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by jjwood

Three questions:

1) Do you think that the $ costs of the Iraq war have had a "substantial" effect on our economic situation?

2) Do you think that the outcome of the presidential election will have a "substantial" effect on our economic situation?

3) Based on your answer to 2), should this impact for whom we vote?

1. Absolutely, and measures taken at home to increase security and reaction capabilities have cost a substantial sum as well.

2. Only if McCain fails to get elected. That will be ugly, particularly if Mr. Obama is elected.

3. Depends on what you do to earn a living. If you are on disability with 7 children you might lean one direction, if you are self or otherwise employed, you might have different inclinations.

Mr. Novak, you make some very salient and rather horrible points, if you really consider even some of the consequences of them. Our policies for the last 40 or 50 years have always been short-sighted, driven by the election cycle. Stuff these asshats are doing now, borrowing more $$$ and sending a freakin' stimulus check, give me a break.

[RWebb]

better define economic turn around...

I expect stocks to be higher by the end of this year than they are now.

I expect the economy as a whole to pick up next year.

I expect people who are poorly educated to struggle...

I expect globalization to continue and to both harm and help various people, business sectors, etc. in the US.

[tonypeoni]

Originally Posted by RWebb

better define economic turn around...

I expect stocks to be higher by the end of this year than they are now.

I expect the economy as a whole to pick up next year.

I expect people who are poorly educated to struggle...

I expect globalization to continue and to both harm and help various people, business sectors, etc. in the US.

Define " poorly educated". To speak in a very frank manner thats about 50% of our population. This is never going to turnaround until we revise NAFTA and bring manufacturing back stateside. Lets not entertain fantasy's of Joe Dirt loosing his factory job at the age of 35 then going back to college to pursue his degree in anthropology. We're not all scientists. We don't all belong in college. This throwing away of the middle/working class will cost all of us. This type of talk, this willingness to throw away such a large sector of Americans is whats giving Hillary/Obama/Pelosi the ability to push socialism so easily.

[Por_sha911]

It depends on who is running the show after this November.

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by RWebb

better define economic turn around...

I expect stocks to be higher by the end of this year than they are now.

I expect the economy as a whole to pick up next year.

I expect people who are poorly educated to struggle...

I expect globalization to continue and to both harm and help various people, business sectors, etc. in the US.

Your post is totally wrong. 99% of the posters on this thread want to hear doom and gloom, and that we are going to be lower on the ratings pole than India shortly and cowtowing to China for the next 20 years.

Truthfully I agree with much of what you say in your post. but the guys above would rather believe what is being pushed by the news agencies than what the business indicators are showing right now.

The job market in my field is booming, has not been this good in 15 years and absolutely no sign of slowing. My house has stopped its nose dive in value, and slowing coming back to gaining money so where I sit things are not doing bad.

You guys continue on your saying we are going down for the count if you want to, I read the tea leaves a bit different.

[MRM]

I was going to post that it was going to turn around quicker than expected but I just heard that JP Morgan is buying out Bear Stearns for $2 a share. A week ago that was a $70 stock. A company's value almost totally gone.

When things are bad they are usually better than it seems. And when things are good it's almost never as good as it feels. Still, it looks like we are in a liquidity crisis that is going to hurt for a while. Inflation is going to hit by this fall when the stimulous money is received and spent. Interest rates will have to rise to counter inflation and stabilize the dollar. Rising interest rates will put downward pressure on the economy. It's not the end of the world, but it's going to be tough going for a while.