Oil, Gas speculation, out of control manipulation

[sammyg2]

Interesting new twist on an existing theme:

Oil Surge: Is Key S&P Commodity Index the Cause or Effect?
Posted Jul 03, 2008 12:34pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Crude prices hit $146 per barrel early Thursday, a surge many attributed to the ECB's rate hike, which initially put further downward pressure on the dollar. (The dollar has since bounced and oil retreated as the ECB suggested this rate hike may be its last.)

Amid the seemingly endless debate over the "real" cause of crude's ascent, Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist of RightSide.com offers yet another explanation: The influence of the S&P GSCI Index.

The index, which S&P acquired from Goldman Sachs in early 2007, is used by many institutional investors, most notably pension funds, as a benchmark for commodities.

S&P estimates $100 billion to $110 billion is currently benchmarked to the index, up from $80-$85 billion at the end of 2007.

Suttmeier's point is that because the index is so heavily weighted in energy -- 78.1% with more than half of that total NYMEX crude -- the increased pension money going into commodities is driving energy prices higher, thus driving up its weighting in the index, prompting more buying by index funds (lather, rinse, repeat).

Technically, the funds are buying swaps contracts that mimic the index vs. the index itself, but Suttmeier's main point is that the index is overweighted in energy and rebalancing it would go a long way to bringing crude prices down, as occurred when Goldman cut energy weightings in 2006 and 2007.

Not surprisingly, the folks at S&P refute this view, saying the GSCI (like the S&P 500) measures the market but doesn't influence how it performs.

[Red Baron]

Don't worry. As the price of gas goes up the farther a Polar Bear can swim.

[Aerkuld]

I must have read a dozen different explanations as to why oil prices are so high, and every one of them is right.