3 Years
 

I'm forming a theory that rampant speculation in a market cannot persist for more than three years.

Observe:

The Dot-Com bubble: 1998-2001 (Began with the Asian Financial Crisis, ended with 9/11/2001.)

The Housing bubble: 2004-2007

The Crude bubble: 2005-2008?

This, I wouldn't count on...markets do as they do. However, there are those predicting oil in the low 90's per barrel by year's end. I hope you're not considering the commodities market. Fortunes have been made there, but fortunes have also been lost. Only Hillary can dabble in commodities with a guarantee of gains. ;)

Crude prices are only going one way. . .

The Chinese have tasted the sweet nectar of American-style excess and like it. Ergo, demand. One billion people's worth of it.

seven years imo

Like any other marketplace not based in fundamentals. Whole overseas stockmarkets (and ours sometimes) are basically a ponzi scheme. Legion, you are on to something.

The dollar is soft right now. As such, inflation is manifesting itself in the price of oil, which is pegged to the dollar.

Additionally, the markets are being manipulated by hedge funds, with a lot of capital to toss around. They are all gaming it long, as more begin to short (which technically is what a hedge fund is supposed to do), pressure will mount in the other direction.

Supply and demand do not seem to be at issue right now but everyone expects demand to continue to rise.

No bubble, but the prices are much higher than they should be IMO.

The quick fix (for the Idiocracy) is the rapid conversion to metric/liters.

90 cents per liter sounds so much more comforting.

I think the housing bubble has already passed the three year mark. What are you considering to be the triggering event in 2004?

Nontheless, I would agree that there are economic cycles. But I am not convinced that they are fixed in duration or predictable in occurance.

OK, how about we try to predict the next bubble?
My money is on natural gas (litterally).

It is a bargain all things concidered and ripe for a large increase. I'm betting it will double or triple in the next couple of years.

Any other guesses on the next bubble?

Collectables