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Cars & Coffee Killer
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: State of Failure
Posts: 32,246
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3 Years
I'm forming a theory that rampant speculation in a market cannot persist for more than three years.
Observe: The Dot-Com bubble: 1998-2001 (Began with the Asian Financial Crisis, ended with 9/11/2001.) The Housing bubble: 2004-2007 The Crude bubble: 2005-2008?
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Some Porsches long ago...then a wankle... 5 liters of VVT fury now -Chris "There is freedom in risk, just as there is oppression in security." |
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04-24-2008, 11:08 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Linn County, Oregon
Posts: 48,552
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This, I wouldn't count on...markets do as they do. However, there are those predicting oil in the low 90's per barrel by year's end. I hope you're not considering the commodities market. Fortunes have been made there, but fortunes have also been lost. Only Hillary can dabble in commodities with a guarantee of gains.
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"Now, to put a water-cooled engine in the rear and to have a radiator in the front, that's not very intelligent." -Ferry Porsche (PANO, Oct. '73) (I, Paul D. have loved this quote since 1973. It will remain as long as I post here.) |
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04-24-2008, 11:52 AM
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Dog-faced pony soldier
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Crude prices are only going one way. . .
The Chinese have tasted the sweet nectar of American-style excess and like it. Ergo, demand. One billion people's worth of it.
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A car, a 911, a motorbike and a few surfboards Black Cars Matter |
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04-24-2008, 12:17 PM
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Canadian Member
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seven years imo
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04-24-2008, 12:21 PM
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Registered
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: New York, NY USA
Posts: 4,269
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Like any other marketplace not based in fundamentals. Whole overseas stockmarkets (and ours sometimes) are basically a ponzi scheme. Legion, you are on to something.
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04-24-2008, 12:27 PM
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Family Values
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 4,075
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The dollar is soft right now. As such, inflation is manifesting itself in the price of oil, which is pegged to the dollar.
Additionally, the markets are being manipulated by hedge funds, with a lot of capital to toss around. They are all gaming it long, as more begin to short (which technically is what a hedge fund is supposed to do), pressure will mount in the other direction. Supply and demand do not seem to be at issue right now but everyone expects demand to continue to rise. No bubble, but the prices are much higher than they should be IMO.
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- Joe Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt |
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04-24-2008, 12:49 PM
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Evolved
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,338
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The quick fix (for the Idiocracy) is the rapid conversion to metric/liters.
90 cents per liter sounds so much more comforting.
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Don't fear the reaper. |
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04-24-2008, 12:54 PM
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Registered
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,247
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I think the housing bubble has already passed the three year mark. What are you considering to be the triggering event in 2004?
Nontheless, I would agree that there are economic cycles. But I am not convinced that they are fixed in duration or predictable in occurance.
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"Rust never sleeps" |
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04-24-2008, 01:27 PM
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Unregistered
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: a wretched hive of scum and villainy
Posts: 55,652
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OK, how about we try to predict the next bubble?
My money is on natural gas (litterally). It is a bargain all things concidered and ripe for a large increase. I'm betting it will double or triple in the next couple of years. Any other guesses on the next bubble? |
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04-24-2008, 03:16 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Collectables
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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04-24-2008, 03:28 PM
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1974 w/89 Look Porsche 911 Cabriolet 2.7 L Rebuil
993 TT
