It's Only Going to Get Worse

[Eric Coffey]

Well the "sky is (still) falling" propaganda all over the media certainly isn't helping things. As a whole, it probably will continue to stagnate, but I wouldn't bet on things getting "significantly worse." I guess that is open to interpretation.

I am in the biz (Sotheby's International) and from my perspective, it hugely market/area (macro/micro) dependant. Some will continue to fall, some are simply maintaining value, and some are back to a positive equity position and steadily increasing, with the latter status gaining ground within certain price points and/or geographic pockets.

The strong majority of the areas I work in (North Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, etc.) have seen the bottom a few months back IMO, and things are moving up slowly but surely. But yes, Phoenix got hammered pretty good, and the mid-to-lower priced homes/neighborhoods will be the last to see any positive change IMO. Basically, Phoenix is at 2005 prices, minus 20%. Whereas Scottsdale is at about 2005 levels, minus 5%, but back on track.

Here is a graph showing homes under contract for the greater NE Phoenix/Scottsdale area since 12/07:



Obviously not huge gains, but at least things are trending upwards again.
I think people with means are realizing that the window for great deals is slowly closing, as home prices and interest rates are on the rise.

[tabs]

Anecodotal from LV..The foreclosed house next door sold to a local of 45 years in LV for 345K . Top price paid for tha model house in the hood was 545K back in summer of 04. This paticular house was sold for $480K in early 06, which was below market. The org owners wanted out as they had another house in Summerland.

New owner told me that there are a lot of investors coming over from LA to buy foreclosed homes here because they are considered to be cheap now.

As one can see the LV market is down about 40% from its peak. Almost 30% since 06.

I have NO GUESS as to where the LV market is headed...Time will tell.

[Joeaksa]

Eric,

Thanks for the post and thats exactly what we are seeing in my area right now.

Am not so much concerned with how fast its going up, as long as it starts going up!

Joe

[nostatic]

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

Obviously not huge gains, but at least things are trending upwards again.
I think people with means are realizing that the window for great deals is slowly closing, as home prices and interest rates are on the rise.

Not to nitpick, but that graph is backwards and confusing to read. Time should be increasing to the right for each group. The colors are also largely "chart junk" as you can just bracket the first/last dates and use the same color.

[Eric Coffey]

Originally Posted by nostatic

Not to nitpick, but that graph is backwards and confusing to read...

Totally agree. Gains/time should always read "up and to the right."

Not my graph. Co-worker keeps the stats/makes the graphs...

[djmcmath]

the, I'd love to know where you get those housing price graphs, and I'd be even happier to see one for the DC Metro region. I'm looking at houses in the MD area and it's still insane. A run-down shack an hour out of Frederick is listed at $213K. The builders north of Frederick are pushing 4000sqft homes as "good for starters, but you'll need more if you decide to have kids." 600sqft shacks in the ghettoes of Rockville are listing at over $300K. Realtors are still saying what they've been saying, "Oh, yeah, the market's hit bottom, and it's on the way back up now. You'd better get pre-approved, and would you like to make an offer? This is very reasonably priced..."

It's not realistic yet, and it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that. I certainly hope it gets worse -- the worse for the market, the better for me -- because I'm just renting right now, with cash in the bank ready to buy.

Here's to a falling market,
Dan

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by Eric Coffey

Here is a graph showing homes under contract for the greater NE Phoenix/Scottsdale area since 12/07:



Obviously not huge gains, but at least things are trending upwards again.
I think people with means are realizing that the window for great deals is slowly closing, as home prices and interest rates are on the rise.

What percentage of sales are REO or distressed sales? What is the cost/SF distribution? What percentage of pending go closing?

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Dantilla

I love the gloom and doom talk. There are great opportunities to pick up more real estate.

I've quit looking at commercial properties for now, and am going to pick up a few more houses to use as rentals.

Lots of inventory, lots of motivated sellers, lots of bankers trying to lend money. What's not to like?

Uh..., how about the ROI in rent vs. mortgage payments?