Should I hedge bet the US Election?

kstar · 05-31-2008, 10:54 PM

I'm surprised at those odds, but they are very close. I'd take McCain and I think his odds of victory will increase after the campaign gets going.

fintstone · fintstone's Garage

Interesting concept...but I have never been one to hedge... Although hedging is a good strategy to prevent unacceptable loss, I always bet to win...and agree with Kurt...the McCain odds will never be better.

Rick Lee · Rick Lee's Garage

I think your winnings would be taxed at current levels, since the election would be in your 2008 filing year and any tax increase would come in 2009 and likely not be retroactive.

KFC911 · 06-01-2008, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

...Let's pretend for a moment that Obama wins the election (highly unlikely in my opinion)...

IMO you're underestimating the "disgust" that prevails with our current policies. I'll probably be voting for McCain, but really don't think it's going to be close...for better or worse, Obama...time will tell.

MRM · 03:44 AM

Wayne, Wall Streeters are not professional gamblers. They never bet unless they control both ends of the deal or already know the outcome, i.e., the Trilateral Commission gives them inside information on who's going to win in Novemeber. Sure, sometimes they're wrong, but don't confuse Bear Sterns with professional gambling.

So, no, unless you have specific inside information on who's going to win in November and what taxes you'll see increase afterword, it doesn't make sense. It would not be hedging risk, it would be just gambling.

bt1211 · 06-01-2008, 04:49 AM

It's going to be Obama. Nothing wrong with McCain. Its going to be tight but you better smell the winds of change.

Joeaksa · 06-01-2008, 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bt1211

It's going to be Obama. Nothing wrong with McCain. Its going to be tight but you better smell the winds of change.

Yes it is going to be Obama who loses. Yes we smell something and its not good. When the candidate keeps "deep sixing" people right and left like he has been doing the last couple of months and something is seriously wrong there.

Simply no way that he is going to pull this off.

How much would you like to bet on this one?

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

I dunno. When one REALLY looks at the overall cross-section of America right now, everyone is talking about Obama. Almost nobody (aside from here on PPOT and right-wing talk radio) is talking about McCain. People are sick and tired of the war in Iraq and if the economy keeps going into the *****ter like it's doing, it's going to be a H-U-G-E advantage to the "change" guy.

I'm going to assume McCain knows how to win an election, but I really do think if he continues to allow himself to be painted as "Bush III/McSame", he's going to get blown out of the water in a landslide. The last thing the American people want or need right now is a continuation of the last eight years of policy failures.

If McCain can clearly and specifically differentiate his administration's policies and goals from those of GWB, then he'll probably do okay. But if he allows himself to be successfully painted as McSame, he's absolutely and positively f*cked.

Look what getting painted as a "flip-flopper" did to Kerry. . . McCain cannot afford to allow himself to be labeled in that manner. For the sake of our country's future, I seriously hope his campaign managers recognize this and are prepared to deal with it and have plans to successfully crush any attempts to paint him in this way.

Moses · 06-01-2008, 06:31 AM

McCain cannot afford to focus his campaign on his own agenda. The nation believes he's dead wrong about Iraq, immigration, etc. He'll focus on the absurdity of the Obama candidacy. Obama's political orientation will not withstand much scrutiny.

America is still a pretty conservative country. McCain will win.

Dottore · 06-01-2008, 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

How much would you like to bet on this one?

Hey Joe, I'll take that wager if you are interested.

bt1211 · 07:21 AM

Whats your bet?

Both have flaws that will be exploited and this is going to be REALLY dirty (on both sides). I still see Obama as the last man standing. I have nothing against McCain or Repubs (except some of the frothing at the mouth rightwings here). The POTUS doesnt make a difference in my daily life except the SC.

Surprising but I can make up my mind based on issues and I dont have to drink blue or red Kool-aid to do it.

Because I'm betting on Obama doesnt mean I have a dis-like for McCain or hate anything he stands for. I'm voting for someone not against someone.

Besides Axelrod is Karl Rove in a cheap suit.

Rearden · 06-01-2008, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I dunno. When one REALLY looks at the overall cross-section of America right now, everyone is talking about Obama. Almost nobody (aside from here on PPOT and right-wing talk radio) is talking about McCain. People are sick and tired of the war in Iraq and if the economy keeps going into the *****ter like it's doing, it's going to be a H-U-G-E advantage to the "change" guy.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows McCain trusted more than Obama on Economy, Iraq, National Security.

the · 06-01-2008, 07:05 AM

Just like someone with the most conservative voting record in Congress could not win a national presidential election, the person with the most liberal voting record can't win.

kstar · 07:30 AM

McCain has recently made two important and effective points re Obama:

Quote:

"Senator Obama is the chairman of an important subcommittee that has the oversight of what's going on in Afghanistan," McCain said. "He has not held one single hearing on Afghanistan, where young Americans are in harm's way as we speak."

and

Quote:

"Senator Obama has been to Iraq once a little over 2 years ago he went and he has never seized the opportunity except in a hearing to meet with General Petraeus, General Petraeus!" McCain told the crowd at a Boys and Girls Club in Reno, NV. "My friends...this is about leadership and learning."

BO has set-up his tent on Iraq as a "failed war". His campaign is in the unfortunate position of being hurt as conditions improve in Iraq . . . and he hasn't even been there since the "surge" was initiated. Add BO's Afghanistan "weakness" to the pile of issues that effectively paint him as inexperienced. All IMHO.

Watch the odds shift to McCain as the one-on-one campaign gets rolling if McCain can run a decent campaign, which I think he can.

Best,

Zeke · 06-01-2008, 07:34 AM

These polls show the candidates as individuals, yet you will vote for a ticket. The choice of VP candidate for each party may change the polls and indeed the outcome. It doesn't mean a thing that the VP does little but preside over the Senate and is a tie breaker. People see the ticket as a pairing. Some may even think of the possibility while voting that the VP may become President. That would be either through the incapacitation or death of the President, or the fact that many carry the VP spot into candidacy in a future election.

When people say Obama won't win, I wonder if his choice of VP will change that. If he did pick Hillary, would her odds improve, or drag down the ticket. I think a lot of people talk one way and vote another. I see a lot of women throwing a vote at Hillary when they get into the booth. They may not tell hubby that.

Would you call that a closet vote?

mossguy · 06-01-2008, 07:49 AM

Milt - Unless the VP is the shadow president a la Cheney!

Tom

Zeke · 06-01-2008, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mossguy

Milt - Unless the VP is the shadow president a la Cheney!

Tom

I think I know what you are implying. And that would be suspect if Hillary took office even though Bill wouldn't be the VP.

So, who's on your list that could assume that role?

bt1211 · 06-01-2008, 08:41 AM

You should never hire someone that sole job is to circumvent your decisions.

If you need that person because of their particular skill-sets, you MUST be in a position to contain them.

There is no-way Bill would be contained. Everyday he got up would be dedicated to what he could do to make Hillary to Pres. by default.

island911 · 06-01-2008, 08:55 AM

Good point. I think that there are lots of Dems who feel that they could roll a Prez Obama ...manipulate him for their own goals.

bt1211 · 06-01-2008, 09:37 AM

Kerry lost to Bush not on his liberal views but his dry persona and excellent abilities to drone on and on about nothing (long after he should have made his point)

Bush had a wry wit and a get r done kind of spirt.

People vote in the same way most men pick a date..... How that person makes you feel when you are with them(or how you THINK you will feel when your with them). If they have viewpoints you can support even better.

Its a small % of the pop. that votes on the issue. People will tell you an issue that they think is most important but ask a follow-up question and you will see they really havent put much thought into it.