It's official - the bear market is back...

dd74 · 07-02-2008, 02:05 PM

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/02/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?cnn=yes

So how long will this last?

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

About early 2011 or so.

tabs · 07-02-2008, 02:12 PM

It will last until the day I am broke.

Take a look at the 30 year and 10 year chart for the SP 500. That will tell the tail. Add the Nasdq to that....You will see that overall the SP is still trading at much higher levels than previousily. A lot of good that does me.

Obviousily companies like GM and Ford are trading substantially down, MSFT is even lagging..the oils as of late have taken off.

the · 07-02-2008, 02:12 PM

Aw, c'mon, just a bunch of chicken littles! Nothing is wrong, it's just the media making things up.

USA! USA! USA! USA!

einreb · 07-02-2008, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

It will last until the day I am broke.

Take a look at the 30 year and 10 year chart for the SP 500. That will tell the tail. Add the Nasdq to that....You will see that overall the SP is still trading at much higher levels than previousily. A lot of good that does me.

Obviousily companies like GM and Ford are trading substantially down, MSFT is even lagging..the oils as of late have taken off.

Just imagine how freaked out you would be if it was monies that you worked for, 'earned' and then 'invested' that was going down the drain.

Dead cat bounce over the next few weeks. Then we take a ride down to 8k. HIPPIES PWND!

lendaddy · 07-02-2008, 03:16 PM

My life has been a bear market. Welcome to my pretty pretty little pain-cave.

turbo6bar · 07-02-2008, 03:22 PM

Last quarter's GDP was above zero, so there is NO way we could possibly be in a recession.

The length of the bear market aside, the more important question is what happens to inflationary pressures? Do we enter a period of inflation, stagflation, or deflation?

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

They'll rewrite the formulas for inflation and definition of unemployment again, ensuring another decade (or at least presidential administration) of low single-digit inflationary growth and prosperity for all!

Gawd, I could have made a great bureaucrat.

Joeaksa · 07-02-2008, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the

Aw, c'mon, just a bunch of chicken littles! Nothing is wrong, it's just the media making things up.

USA! USA! USA! USA!

Things in my field are going up and up.

If we can keep Iran from doing something stupid....

David · David's Garage

And to think I voted "14,000" on the where do you think the DOW will be at the end of 2007

dd74 · 07-02-2008, 04:16 PM

Alright, then what about whomever becomes President - Obama or McCain? A Democrat I spoke with the other day said: "I'm a Democrat, but my money is Republican."

I heard a talking head Wall Street type on TV say, "Don't do anything with your investments until we see who becomes POTUS in November."

I like to think the president and economy are not linked. I also like to think of off-Earth planetary life, too.

Chuck Moreland · 07-02-2008, 04:18 PM

The market is responding to the likely prospect of the capital gains tax rate changing from 15% to 28% pending Obama's election.

This of course makes stocks a less attractive investment.

The down trend continues as long as polls favor Obama, or until the election. If McCain wins, a big rally will follow.

the · 07-02-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 125shifter

And to think I voted "14,000" on the where do you think the DOW will be at the end of 2007

LOL, that was my thread.

My thought back then was that the DOW would be below 10K by now.

I was wrong, but only on the timing (as usual, my timing sucks, I always think things will happen sooner than they do).

The DOW will break into the 8000s before this is over.

Hey, GM is already at a FIFTY FOUR YEAR low.

the · 07-02-2008, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

Things in my field are going up and up.

For pilots, one would hope that is the case!

dd74 · 07-02-2008, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the

The DOW will break into the 8000s before this is over.

If that happens, the U.S. will be sunk with little hope for a recovery in our lifetime. I don't even think McCain being elected could prevent that.

What drove the ascension of the stock market in the 90s? Tech was part of that, right? And housing? Will we ever see another rally like that in out lifetime? I'm not so sure.

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

If that happens, the U.S. will be sunk with little hope for a recovery in our lifetime. I don't even think McCain being elected could prevent that.

What drove the ascension of the stock market in the 90s? Tech was part of that, right? And housing? Will we ever see another rally like that in out lifetime? I'm not so sure.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

For chrissakes I hope we've collectively learned something and DON'T see another rally like that again in our lifetimes! At the end of the day, is it really worth the downfall? No way Jose!

Slow and steady wins the race. Life is a marathon, not a sprint.

1967 R50/2 · 07-02-2008, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

I like to think the president and economy are not linked.

They are not. Consider the last 30 years.

Reagan had a boom 1981-1987...and a crash. (1987) Republican.
Bush had a small expenasion and then a recession, even if it did not technically qualify. (Republican)
Clinton had a boom and then a bust (Who could forget?) (Democrat)
Bush 2 has had a recession, an expansion, and likely a recession again. (Republican)

Tough to see a connection as to who is doing the better job.

In truth if you look at things historically, the economy expands most when the executive branch is held by one party and the legislative branch by the other.

They are too busy fighting each other to pass new taxes or spend on pork

the · 07-02-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

Will we ever see another rally like that in out lifetime? I'm not so sure.

Sure. People are dumb, greedy, and most importantly, have a very short memory.

Heck, even in this last bubble, you had everyone saying "Real estate never goes down." Esp. in California. Apparently completely erasing from their memory when California real estate declined for 8 straight years from 1990 to 1997.

kstar · 07-02-2008, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

. . . snip . . .

Obviousily companies like GM and Ford are trading substantially down, MSFT is even lagging..the oils as of late have taken off.

MSFT has been dead money for 8 years, actually flat for 10 years, but it did spike before the techs got blowed up in 99/00.

kstar · 07-02-2008, 06:52 PM

If Obama wins and gets his wish of 50%+ marginal rates and 25% cap gains rates, then all bets are off . . .

That will kill the economy and, IMO, off-set any positive feelings that may be created by a sense that the USA is finally taking responsibility for its deficit . . . because spending will increase dramatically.

All IMHO.