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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Crisis of Liquidiity
Remember what I was tellin U Boyz about a CRISIS OF LIQUIDITY back after 911. An how close we came...Well now we have stepped up to the abyss again....this time it is not just a single event driven phenomena. This a sytematic driven event...so many things going wrong all at once. Yet each piece of the puzzle effects the others in a Catch 22 situation.
The Fed pulled the financail system back from the brink with the Bear Sterns/Morgan save... However as time goes by the unwinding continues...Fanny/freddy, WAMU, Citi, Wachovia...all on shaky ground and not likely to survive in their current configuration. The more time that elapes the better....the softer the blow. Back after 911, I looked into my crystal ball and thought I had a window of opportunity to sell my hard assets and go to liquidity. After that I thught the bottom would drop out. I was quite surprised that those assets continued to appreciate and the market became very bullish for them. I have continued to look for weakness in that market. Some segments have become weak, but others are still strong if not very strong. U boyz know the one I am talking about. What I am worried about now is the bottom dropping out on those assets. I am thinking that my crystal ball gazing back in 2001 was correct but the length of time it would take was off. We shall see. What I am thinking now and betting is that the world is in an inflationary spiral, the American $$$ has been in decline (Undrstatment of the year) and that hard assets will reflect the declining value of the $$$ and skyrocket. Something has to be worth something. Money has to be put to work by being invested in something. Today RE, Stock Market, Bond Market are all negative investments..Commoditys are king and are the Bull. However prices have become lofty, and fraught with speculation. Money to be invested is in a box, with no clear path to earn a return. So what do you do? The only thing one can do is take your choich of investment vehicle and bet on it. As an act of faith. U can be sure of one thing that if the USA goes then the world will follow right down the drain with it. Everybody will be in a leaky boat without a paddle on ***** creek. For those who say NAY...to the world following suit...yeah but look at all those $$$$$$ they hold and are in $$$$ denominated investments. Along withthe USA being the reserve currency and the US consumer buying a large percentage of the goods and services produced in the world....Nope we go they go...and unless you have mega, mega-bux join the crew....
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07-14-2008, 01:25 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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The key here is employment..right now it is 5.5% unemployment...so long as people keep working the system will keep on going...
As I said before my HS Govt teacher way way back in ahhhhhh 1971 said that in a modern economy 5% to 6% unemployment can be considered to be full employment....So unless those numbers start to creep up radically........ Unemployment should remain somewhat low due to the fact that with the $$$ being so low our goods and services are cheap on the world market. That is the silver lining that may save our day. The US is truly being faced with a transfer of wealth right out of this country...with $700B right out to the oil producers. The only thing that can offset that is if the price of the goods and services the US produces reflects that cost.
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07-14-2008, 01:36 PM
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Dog-faced pony soldier
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Inflation is HUGELY understated right now - deliberately made to look "tame" by manipulation of government formulas and reporting methods. It's GOING to be a significant factor in the coming months/years, exacerbated by a weak dollar. I'd say the smart place to put $$$ right now is in foreign currency markets.
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A car, a 911, a motorbike and a few surfboards Black Cars Matter |
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07-14-2008, 02:25 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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U tell me if cash isn't being eroded with $145 a barrel oil....
This weekend a Smith and Wesson model 29-2 44mag 6.5 inch Barrel in factory wood case (std)..mid 70's gun went for $1000.00 S&W mdl 17-4 8 3/8 B... 22 LR..mid 70's gun NIB....$1000.00 + 15% buyers commish....different auction BTW.... 2 years ago I sold one wt wood case for $475... Colt Python 4" B mid 70's 357 mag...$1120.00....this is about right.. Mauser 71/84 11MMM German Military rifle....New cond...this model is not unusal to find in this cond....$1210.00..top $$$$ Springfield M1D Sniper Garand wt CMP box and paper work $3220.00... skirting top $$$ THESE ARE NOT CHEAP PRICES...some of these are pushing the envelope prices.. These prices are reflective of what is going on...
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07-14-2008, 02:39 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Yeah and why didn't recommend that one should buy property in 2006 at the height of the market too. Your allready going to be paying a large premium to purchase that foreign currency....just join the other lemmings...
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07-14-2008, 02:42 PM
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Free minder
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Too many companies making money without producing anything, that is where the problem is.
A good cleanup was long overdue... Aurel
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1978 SC Targa, DC15 cams, 9.3:1 cr, backdated heat, sport exhaust https://1978sctarga.car.blog/ 2014 Cayenne platinum edition 2008 Benz C300 (wife’s) 2010 Honda Civic LX (daughter’s) |
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07-14-2008, 03:25 PM
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