TABS On THe Russian March To The Sea In Georgia

[tabs]

Comment by TABS on Tuesday, Aug 12 at 05:38 AM

The American and European political leadership had better not forget exactly who Vladimir Putin is. He is ex KGB and as such grew up and matured under a very circumspect way of thinking. He is a cold and calculating individual that thinks nothing of the lives of people if it serves his interests in the great game of power politics. He has waited for the opportune moment to make his move into Georgia. A time of the Chinese Olympic coming out party onto the world stage. A time of financial and energy crisis in the world, and a upcoming Presidential election in the USA. All create the perfect moment of distraction,instability and uncertainty for him to accomplish his goals. The only question is whether he will settle for short yardage of the US abandoning the Strategic Defense Initiative for peace in our time.



This is a very calculated move by the Russians. Where there is more to it than Georgia that meets the eye. The meaning of the Russian move into Georgia is not lost on the Chinese. The Olympic Games have opened which are supposed to be China's coming out party as having arrived on the world stage as a power to be reckoned with. Having the President of the US sitting in the audience was to be the acknowledgement of China's status in the world. So what have the Russians done, but upstage the Chinese in their moment of glory. This is cause for loss of face in Beijing to have the Russians dismiss them as such. This is the Russians saying to the world we are back as a superpower power to be reckoned with, we will back it up with military muscle and oil and gas reserves you can't do without. Now Nancy Pelosi and GW Bush have both basically said, "There needs to be a cease fire and now." What if the Russian tell the US and the West to, "Go screw yourselves and what are you gona do about it?" The US and her western allies certainly better get on the stick and tell the Russians in no uncertain terms that they had better back off or risk the use of force. However the Russians have calculated that the west has become complacent bourgeoisie and won't risk going to war over Georgia, the Ukraine, and the Baltic States. The Russians want their empire back and Putin has ambitions to be known as Vladimir the Great.

[slakjaw]

Originally Posted by tabs

Comment by TABS on Tuesday, Aug 12 at 05:38 AM

Now Nancy Pelosi and GW Bush have both basically said, "There needs to be a cease fire and now." What if the Russian tell the US and the West to, "Go screw yourselves and what are you gona do about it?"

http://www.endofworld.net/

[Seric]

Yup, while we were busy dealing with some turd named Osama, Putin was busy rebuilding the Russian Empire. Nice time to roll out the new digs Vlad.

Vladimir the Great? More like Vlad the Impaler.

[legion]

Vlad the Incontinent, from what I hear.

[jyl]

Tabs, the only nitpick I have with your piece is that Russia did not calculatedly time this fight to coincide with the Olympics. Georgia was the one who chose the timing. As it turns out, Georgia's decision and its timing was a gift to Russia.

"So what have the Russians done, but upstage the Chinese in their moment of glory."

[Rick Lee]

Does anyone else find it totally comical when people who are completely powerless in a given situation "call on" one or both sides to do the opposite of what's in their interests? I understand Bush or any other U.S. president has to say certain things in response to a serious situation. But what's this "I call on" BS? Has anyone ever reversed course because someone "called on" them to do so? Get real.

Bottom line is this is a regional conflict between two non-NATO countries and we ain't about to escalate it into a big conflict with a nuclear power. The UN is incapable of doing anything and the U.S. is unwilling. Georgia is screwed.

[Capt. Crunch]

I think this has a lot to do with Poland and the Czech Republic. I dont think they feel warm and fuzzy about hosting our Missile Defense Batteries. If the Russians brutally attacked Georgia what the heck are they going to do to them?

Anyone catch Condeleezza Rice referring to Russia as the "Soviet Union" a few months ago?

[Rick Lee]

Pretty sure the outside world will give Russia a pass wrt to Georgia, as few people know the history real well. Not so with Poland and the Czech Rep. They are in no way Russian territory and have only ever been so by force. That would be crossing a serious line.

I think Russia is winning the battle, but losing the war here. This kind of behavior will drive Ukraine right into NATO, which is Russia's worst nightmare. If I were Pooty-Poot, I'd much rather let the Ossetia issue fester than encourage Ukraine to join NATO. Can you imagine what would happen if Ukraine were in NATO and then they came to blows with Russia? This would be a Tom Clancy novel.

[Tobra]

if they attacked the Poles or the Czechs, it would be a whole other ballgame, very bad things would ensue

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by Tobra

if they attacked the Poles or the Czechs, it would be a whole other ballgame, very bad things would ensue

Yes, but would it really come to that, or could Russia get away with just a real credible threat? Obviously, Poland's and Czech's position in such a situation would entirely depend on how much they really believed they could rely on NATO to come to their aid. And what has history taught them about their western neighbors stepping in to protect them from their eastern neighbors? It would be a big game of chicken and somehow I doubt the next president would be real convincing if he said we were gonna protect Poland and Czech.

[Hugh R]

Prague is one of my favorite cities in the world. From what I've read, Georgia kind of got b!tch slapped by Russia for trying to take over areas that are under dispute and both sides kind of agreed to leave alone for a while.

[Capt. Crunch]

I think Yushchenko only mentions NATO to get better pricing on the natural gas from Gazprom.

Ah the days of "Pooty-Poo" and "Saxophone guy".

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by Capt. Crunch

I think Yushchenko only mentions NATO to get better pricing on the natural gas from Gazprom.

If anyone in the whole world has reason to distrust Putin, he's the one.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by jyl

Tabs, the only nitpick I have with your piece is that Russia did not calculatedly time this fight to coincide with the Olympics. Georgia was the one who chose the timing. As it turns out, Georgia's decision and its timing was a gift to Russia.

"So what have the Russians done, but upstage the Chinese in their moment of glory."

Don't cha think Tabs.....ahhhh I..I mean Putin knows how to provoke a fight...in the past few months he has been ratchting up the ante, and Georgia slipped and fell in the trap...

[Seahawk]

Even though this was a gift from Yushchenko, I would say Putin is indeed challenging us, not China. Putin needs nothing from China, has grown rich on oil and other resources.

Russia is a rich, ignorant drunk, with renewed aspirations. To paraphrase: "Giving money and power to Russia is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys." - PJ O'Rourke.

We need an energy policy now.

[Pazuzu]

Of course Putin isn't challenging China...that would be suicide.

I fear China far more than I fear the shambled leftover mess of the Soviets. China can and will have 1/5th of the Russian land before they decide to stop.

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by seahawk

we Need An Energy Policy Now.

+1

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by Pazuzu

Of course Putin isn't challenging China...that would be suicide.

I fear China far more than I fear the shambled leftover mess of the Soviets. China can and will have 1/5th of the Russian land before they decide to stop.

I fear you are wrong...the shambled mess is over. I fear them both, not militarily, but economically.

FWIW, if China made a move, launch codes for all my Comrades.

[Pazuzu]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

I fear you are wrong...the shambled mess is over. I fear them both, not militarily, but economically.

FWIW, if China made a move, launch codes for all my Comrades.

I don't think that China will need to fire a shot. They have a marching army that can simply overwhelm most small countries...they will have a coastline that rivals ours. They also have access to the parts of Russia that are weakest...the South. Lands that are free of the government controls, where the Comrades are rare, and where the people would simply see their own kind taking over and pouring money into the local economy.

Of course, I also see China eating North Korea completely. The US will look the other way when that happens.

This is, of course, all my opinion.

[Rick Lee]

Read Clancy's The Bear and the Dragon. In that one China gets their a$s so handed to them, it's ridiculous. Of course, the U.S. teamed up with Russia to repel the Chinese invasion. But China's military is only impressive for its numbers, not its technology. They have no aircraft carriers and their pilots get barely more seat time in a year than ours do in a month. They have no forward bases. Sure, they have enough soldiers to almost outlast an enemy's supply of bullets to shoot at them. But they don't have the means to project military power very far from their borders, Taiwan notwithstanding. Besides, the Chinese leadership's hold on power is already shaky. Any kind of military adventure than was anything less than a total victory would guarantee the collapse of the government.