Future Of Car Industry

[jyl]

Two years from now, what car brands do you think will be gone, what new ones will have emerged, and which will have merged?
- Not just asking about the big three, also about the small and international marques. Saab Land Rover Jaguar Jeep Fiat Mazda Citroen etc.

Five years from now, what do you think will be the leading engine technologies for new cars?
- Gasoline diesel gas/electric diesel/electric/plugin fuel cell all-electric etc?

Ten years from now, do you think there will be more cars per capita in the world? How about in the USA?

Twenty years from now, do you think the global car market will be growing, flat, or declining in unit terms?

[svandamme]

if anybody could answer this, he'de know more then the companies themselves know...
right now, they are in reaction mode, not in visionary mode, it's anybodies guess right now, to many variables

[Jim Richards]

The Japanese and Germans will still be in the game. Detroit auto manufacturers will die in less than 5 years. Gas-powered vehicles will be the horse-drawn buggies of the 21st Century. We'll see fewer cars per capita in the USA, and possibly the world, but the global car market will grow slowly to support the transition to non-fossil fuel vehicles and the gradual increase in global population.

[notfarnow]

I'd like to see some different classifications to allow for cars & trucks intended for strictly low-speed urban use, maybe limited to cities or even secondary roads (ie no highway). That would really bring some sensible innovation.

Think japanese <660cc Kei

Up here, we;re allowed to import these things once they're 15 yrs old... I'm seeing the little trucks pop up all over the place. If I can risk life & limb in a 15 year old one, why not let me do it in a brand-spanking new one?

[ruf-porsche]

Two Years from now China will be producing more cars than GM or Ford. See the latest offering from China. It's for BMW wanna be.

[grudk]

Lots of variables, as noted above: economy and when it recovers, oil prices/reserves, technical innovation, govt legislation

That said, my feeling is that we will have fossil-fueled cars dominant for a while yet, maybe 10-20 yrs. Engines will get smaller, more efficient -- lots of turbo/supercharging. Cars will get smaller on average. Large displacement engines for personal use will increasingly rare. Conventional supercars will disappear, to be replaced by more exotic/innovative creations.

After 10-20 yrs, electric cars dominant

Detroit will still be around, but the brands will be shuffled and condensed. I think Cadillac, Jeep will be here. Saturn may go the way of oldsmobile. Volvo and Saab may go back to Swedish ownership. Some new brands will emerge.

I think it will all be very interesting, though i expect we will see our old porsches legislated off the road at some point, or perhaps licensed for limited 'show and display' use