Crystal Ball Time - The Next Big Collector Car

[onewhippedpuppy]

Discussing the E30 M3 elsewhere got me thinking that this might make for a fun thread. Cars, even rare cool ones, seem to go through phases of desirability. They start out as the hot new thing, then a desirable used car, then a forgotten used car, then a collector car. Short of ultra exotics, most cars seem to go through this process. For the desirable ones it seems they are totally forgotten, then almost overnight the market gets white hot. I've seen it in the last few years with the early 911 and the E30 M3. Obviously some never really reach collector car status.

So, what are your predictions for the next hot collector car?

Mercedes Benz 190E 2.3-16V - rare Mercedes joint venture with Cosworth to go racing against the E30 M3s.


BMW E28 and E34 M5 - right now you can get a LOT of M5 for the money. I doubt they get any cheaper, and E28 prices seem to have started moving upwards.



Datsun 240Z - pretty much the best deal going for a classic sports car.


Mercedes 500E - they seem to have bottomed out on price, someday I'm betting they head back upwards. The first Porsche sedan, what else do you need to know?

[porsche4life]

I bet when the market untanks we will see 944 prices rise due to the lessining numbers of really good ones. I wouldn't turn down a chep Corrado either. They were rarer than the 944 and more of them got riced. I expect an uptick in the market for a clean car.

[Vintage Racer]

I'd say the 911SC coupe. They have rock solid durability, a marque with a large following, good racing history, and the parts are readily available. As with any collector car, it should be the nicest car one can find.

I didn't see the E30 M3 thread, but this M3 is my favorite BMW.

I don't see the Datsun 240Z doing anything. They just never caught on with the collector car crowd. The only year that is popular is the first year (1970).

Mercedes Benz 190E 2.3-16V

It's rated a "F" in the SCM price guide. Can you still buy the Cosworth parts?

I don't see the Mercedes and BMW M5 sedans as ever doing well. The are complicated and expensive to work on, not rare, and not particularly attractive. JMHO, of course.

I think a low grill MB 280SE will do well.

A Ferrari 328 GTB and 328 GTS (1986-1989) are going up. The F355 series (1994-1999) have almost bottomed.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I don't know if I can see the 944 or Corrado ever being true collector cars, there were just so many made. More rare versions of the 944, however, I could see gaining value. I do agree that the clean and well-maintained cars will always be worth a premium, just because there's so much crap out there.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Vintage Racer, you're looking at a higher price point than I am.

I mention the Z because it's one of the few '70s sports cars that you can still buy for under $10k in nice condition. As similar cars (early 911) become out of reach for the average Joe, I think interest in more common cars like the Z will increase.

Actually, that's really a common thread of my suggestions. Most of the cars I suggested are just so damn cheap, there's really only one way they can go. For example, you can get a nice 190E 2.3-16V for under $10k. No clue on parts availability though.

[Z-man]

First off - what is your definition of a collector car? That definition varies greatly even among car enthusiasts.

Right now, it seems that the muscle car / American iron segment is still hot. So older Mustangs, Camaros/Firebirds, Vettes and others are holding their own in the collector realm.

I think the Datsun Z's are losing ground - it may have been a flash in the pan in terms of collectability.

My guess to the next big thing - maybe the slightly obscure cars or historically significant cars like the following:
- Toyota GT2000
- Studebaker Avanti
- Porsche Carrera 2.7 RS
- Porsche 924 GTS
- Mercedes 190 EVO
- Mercedes 500 E
- GMC Typhoon / Syclone
- Buick GNX
- Ford RS200
- Lotus Elan

Just thinking out loud...
-Z-man.

[kaisen]

Think about what cars high-school/college boys lusted after 20 years ago, and it has to be iconic, and you'll see the patterns.

So, going back 20 years to the late 80's - early 90's:

Camaro IROC-Z
Pontiac Trans Am GTA
Ford Mustang GT or 5.0LX
Buick Grand National
Chevrolet Monte Carlo SS Aerocoupe
Corvette ZR1
Corvette Callaway versions
Toyota Celica (esp All Trac)
Toyota Supra
Lamborghini Countach (think of all the posters)
Ferrari 3x8 (think Magnum PI)
Ferrari BB
Ferrari Testarossa (think Miami Vice)
BMW e30 M3
BMW 6 series
Mercedes SL
Porsche 928 (think Risky Business)
Porsche 911 Turbo
DSM cars (Eclipse, Talon)
Chrysler Conquest TSi
Mitsubishi Starion ESi
Nissan 240SX
Nissan 300ZX Twin Turbo

I'm sure I missed some

The key is finding the ones that are currently UNDERVALUED
Some have been collectable since they came out (ala GNX)

[kaisen]

From an investment standpoint, I'd buy a Ferrari BB512

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by Z-man

First off - what is your definition of a collector car? That definition varies greatly even among car enthusiasts.

Right now, it seems that the muscle car / American iron segment is still hot. So older Mustangs, Camaros/Firebirds, Vettes and others are holding their own in the collector realm.

I was thinking of a simple definition of "collector car": A car that stops depreciating in value and actually moves higher in value over time.


I subscribe to three "collector car" price guides. I prefer the Sports Car Market and the Cars That Matter guides. They show a definite decrease in value for most every muscle car from Jan. 2008 to Jan. 2009. Of course, the market was so hot that most prices just returned to 2006/2007 levels.

A few things that I think are important:
A beauty in design.
Rarity.
A successful racing performance (for performance cars).
A car with a "story" (James Dean's Porsche, Peter Gregg's street 911).
A car that car enthusiasts love (have you ever heard of a Toyota car show?)
JMO

[CJFusco]

If the definition of a collector car is one that "bottoms out" and starts increasing in value, this had already started to happen with the upper range of the 944 line about two years ago; the 951, S2, and 968 bottomed out in about 2006, and the prices were climbing steadily... until around September 15, 2008, that is...

[dd74]

It's really all about taste, and in my case, what is not normally seen on the street.

Also, I wouldn't be a good collector as I don't see the value in buying a car and not using it.

Personally, I like one-off and strange models, to name four:

The Renault R5 Turbo II
The Ford Mustang SVO
The 1st gen Acura Integra Type R
The 1st gen Volkswagen GTi - either American or Euro

I've never been as much a Lotus Elan fan. I like the early to mid-60s Cortina much more.

And speaking of Lotus, I doubt the current Elise will ever gain the prestige of old Lotus cars from the 60s and 70s. Not with a Toyota engine...

With that said, I also wouldn't mind a Ferrari 288 GTO.

[m21sniper]

The new Camaros and Challengers are both surefire bets as long term investments.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

A car that car enthusiasts love (have you ever heard of a Toyota car show?)
JMO

Ever hear of Hot Import Nights, SEMA, drifting, or The Fast & The Furious? Though I think some of the stuff they do is stupid, the import scene is hot right now with no signs of cooling down, especially with the 30 and under crowd. Like it or not, they're the musclecars of the 21st century. kaisen mades a very good point by suggesting some Japanese cars, I could easily see today's Civic rice drivers lusting after a Z32 300ZX TT, Eclipse GSX, Integra Type-R, etc. I won't even bother mentioning the Supra Turbo, as their values are insane already.

Z, I like your suggestions, but I think many of those are already collectibles. Good luck finding a bargain on a Toyota GT2000, 2.7 RS Carrera, or Typhoon/Syclone. Like kaisen said, it's all about identifying the cars that are currently undervalued.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by m21sniper

The new Camaros and Challengers are both surefire bets as long term investments.

Do you think kids today are lusting after a Camaro or Mustang? I bet the average high-schooler has more interest in the new 370Z. Desire is what drives a car to be a true collector's item. The typical modern musclecar owner around here is either in his 40s or has a mullett.

[m21sniper]

Yep, they sure do lust after Camaros and Challengers. Kids love their big V-8s like dad used to have when they were a boy.

370Z's will never be collectors cars.

[daepp]

BMW 3.0CS (i)
Toyota Celica GT (early)
240Z
Z3
Stock 70's wagons

[tabs]

Honda NSX

[dan79brooklyn]

BMW 2002 and 2002tii are getting expensive...When I was into them 8 years ago (prior to being able to afford my first 911SC) you could pick up a very good tii for 10K now they are 2 or three times more money. They made a lot of them, but original condition cars are getting harder to find.

[CJFusco]

Once my students found out that I'm a car guy, they won't leave me alone with car chat (not that I mind). In my region, the cars kids want are Porsches, Ferraris, Lambos, and Astons (a couple days ago, a girl in my 7th period honors class told me that the new Porsche 911 Turbo is the most beautiful car ever made; I asked her to go look up the Ferrari 250, or even the 1995 version of the Porsche Turbo). A small minority likes the WRX and Lancers. But then, I live in a pretty affluent area.

[Z-man]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Z, I like your suggestions, but I think many of those are already collectibles. Good luck finding a bargain on a Toyota GT2000, 2.7 RS Carrera, or Typhoon/Syclone. Like kaisen said, it's all about identifying the cars that are currently undervalued.

True about the GT2000 and the rest you mention. But I still think they are at the infancy of being called 'collectable' (except for the GT2000) - so prices may still be reasonable.

Tabs - you are spot on with the NSX.

Some more to consider:
- Toyota MR2 Turbo (2nd gen)
- Last gen Toyota Supra Twin Turbo
- TVR Griffith
- Dodge Omni GLH


-Z