Will the "Gun Bubble" break?

targa911S · 07-14-2009, 10:07 AM

What say all?

legion · 07-14-2009, 10:09 AM

Yes.

Either because we can't own them anymore, or because the threat on ownership is removed.

targa911S · 07-14-2009, 10:13 AM

well said.

Jim Richards · 07-14-2009, 10:17 AM

Yes, the bubble will break. Look for it in 2010.

targa911S · 07-14-2009, 10:26 AM

so, as in the stock market, when would you sell, and what?

legion · 07-14-2009, 10:36 AM

Careful Jim, you're going to get this thread thrown to PARF.

tabs · 11:07 AM

Collectible gun prices have been on the rise since 1998. The prices have withstood the deflation that has occur ed in almost all the different asset classes. Only coins have stood up as well. I do denote a bit of weakness in prices now, but that may have only been a momentary summertime blip? Summer is traditionally weak for collectible sales.

Going forward if one thinks that inflation is going to be a factor in upcoming years due to the debasement of the USD and American deficit spending. Then Guns is as good a hedge against inflation as there is.

Also the BO admin has resisted making any overtures regarding guns...he may wait till the second term on that one.

As with the 92 Assault weapon ban people rushed out to buy assault weapons. After they blew their money the gun market was flat for years. I would say that after the iniatial demand in assault weapons subsides as the want is satisfied they will fall back to earth somewhat.

Really high end guns I would say will stay strong..the medium priced stuff might get a bit softer as people who can afford that level are stretched out a bit more now.

The Demographic that buys the collectable stuff is a bit older and usually has the wherewithall to keep purchasing.

Jim Richards · 07-14-2009, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion

Careful Jim, you're going to get this thread thrown to PARF.

Quote:

Originally Posted by targa911S

so, as in the stock market, when would you sell, and what?

As the economy starts to recover (early-to-mid-2010, IMO), and as we get to the half-way point between POTUS elections, the worries (fear of restrictions and zombies) will subside and people will sell off some of their guns. I can't say what types of guns will be best to sell first. My crystal ball doesn't afford that level of detail.

BlueSkyJaunte · 07-14-2009, 12:32 PM

It already is showing signs of doing so.

I can walk into any store here in the Phoenix area and buy pretty much what I want, if I'm willing to shell out the bucks. Some dealers haven't gotten the message yet that a lot of the stuff they ordered months ago has broken loose and is arriving by the container full. I know more than a few dealers that, 3-6 months ago, would accept anything and everything from whatever their distributor(s) had on hand at the time.

Stuff is sitting on dealer's shelves now and one particular AZ vendor just had an inventory blowout at pre-bubble prices just to get things under control. DPMS LR-308T's at $825 ea. (no joke).

Ammo, on the other hand, is still in short supply everywhere.

MotoSook · 02:20 PM

If I buy a couple more at blow-out prices when the inventory starts to pile up, then I'll have purchased all my equipment at "normal" prices.

There is already a decline in prices for guns and ammo that I can see. Colt AR-15 prices are falling...a good indicator since at the height of it a $1200 Colt could fetch over $2000! I can now find S&W MP15's in stock and prices not jacked up by dealers or Gun Broker profiteers. There are more parts available. AR-15 barrels are popping up and staying in stock. The AR-15 and AK market is a good indicator I think since they are common and prime targets for a weapons ban.

The supply is catching up....and dealers who placed large orders to capitalize on the scare...will have to start dumping them. I saw one place had over 70 Colt 6920 rifles....that's a lot of inventory, even if their wholesale price for those is $700 ea. (Edited to indicate Colts not the original S&W MP15, I just checked again and that same site still has 55 left at $1250)

Ammo is starting to stay on the shelf longer, and some online retailers havve started to lower their prices....from the bubble prices.

So I say the bubble is starting to deflate....but hasn't burst yet.

island911 · 07-14-2009, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion

Careful Jim, you're going to get this thread thrown to PARF.

ya beat me to it.

Jim Richards · 07-14-2009, 12:56 PM

charleskieffner · 07-14-2009, 01:02 PM

you can only feed a FAT MAN so MANY TACOS UNTIL HE PUKES!

how many TACOS CAN YOU CARRY?

hell my FFL is getting slammed with stuff he ordered 2 years ago let alone a year ago.

america was already the highest gun ownership per capita in the world before obama became gun sales mgr of the year.

in my case im about the end of my ventures with the exception of a standard loaded M1-A f/glass stock w/stainless barrel and the gun shop up in prescott i frequent had (3) of them on the shelf for $1599. that price should be coming down. supply and demand.

honestly do ya think obama is gonna pull any crap with any mfg. that keeps the economy rolling. i dont. now importation of fun black evil semi autos and other evil products may happen. but obama's not gonna risk shoving all the gun mfg's down the toilet.

legion · 07-14-2009, 01:04 PM

I thought you were anticipating the "threat to ownership" being "removed" in 2010.

***

A few months ago, the ONLY ammo that stayed on store shelves was shotgun shells. Now I'm seeing some of the more obscure/expensive stuff sticking around. I can get just about any 30-caliber (.308, .30-30, .30-06, etc.). 7.62 x 39 is sticking around. So is 44 Mag, 25 auto, and 32 auto.

I still haven't seen any 9mm, .22LR, .223, .17HMR, .22 Mag, or .38 special sitting out on the shelves anywhere local, though I have seen some at Cabelas.

Jim Richards · 01:14 PM

The "threat to ownership" is really only a panicky reaction like we've seen so many times before...oil, tech stocks, houses, derivatives, oil futures, etc. It's classic. It's removed when people calm down. The eventual improvement in the economy will help. People will feel better, and will "see" fewer zombies lurking in the bushes. In the absence of any legislation, people will become more confident, as well. I'm only talking about confidence being restored, and that will lead to the bubble bursting. But then, you and Glenn already knew that, didn't you?

MotoSook · 07-14-2009, 01:10 PM

Check Walmart for .22LR and 9mm. I saw 2000 rds of .22lr when I picked up some bulk Federal .223 yesterday. Guy in front of me took all of the .22 though.

Jim Richards · 07-14-2009, 01:21 PM

I'll need to swing by Wally-Mart.

MotoSook · 07-14-2009, 01:30 PM

Next to online prices, Wally's is the cheapest place I can walk into for certain calibers. So I tend to pop in to any Wally's that I pass near. The Cabela in my area is too far out of my way...so fuel cost would negate their lower price.

Rick Lee · Rick Lee's Garage

9mm is still unobtainium here. Wal-Mart's inventory is horrible. I try to buy whatever I can find private party if it's the same as or at all less than the big bulk online sellers. I figure I can save the sales tax or shipping that way. Just picked up another 500 rds. of Wolf .223 for less than it's going for online. I refuse to pay anything close to $20 per box for handgun ammo. I scored a few hundred rds. of Speer Gold Dot .357SIG for well below half of retail a few weeks ago.

gtc · gtc's Garage

Walmarts here are useless for anything but shotgun shells now. The rifle/handgun ammo counter was empty when I went looking for .22LR last week.