Future value of combustion engine collectable cars
 

I have been thinking about this for a while now and am not exactly sure what the answer is, so I will pose the question here. What will happen to the value of combustion engine collectible/Sports cars when hybrids, electric, fuel cell, and/or solar technology takes over in the next 10-20 years? Will our cherished prizes be destined for scrap yards when the price of gas hits $10.00 or more a gallon? The only comparison I can think of is when steam lost out to the combustion engine 80 years ago. Opinions welcome.

Cheers

I have no idea, but I have been thinking about this exact same thing recently. Is it worth it to spend big bucks on my '74 911 to restore it and make it the car I want it to be - including a fantastically rebuilt and expensive gas burning engine when, as you say, gas may not be as avail. or as economic in the distant future? I have no idea (I will go ahead regardless!), but am subscribing to hear the discussion.

I seriously doubt this will become a real issue in the near future. There is currently no real substitute for gasoline/diesel vehicles. Even hybrids take gas. Assuming a feasible alternative is developed in the next decade, it would probably take another decade to fully implement the technology and develop the infrastructure. People won't fully embrace anything until they can fill-up at a podunk gas station, would you want to be stranded because that gas station in Western KS doesn't have hydrogen pumps? Probably the biggest threat is high gas prices, which still puts the ball in your hands.

Hell, we're all going to die in 2012, right?:D

I think that combustion engined cars will become oddities in the next 20 to 30 years. People will collect them. And some people will be able to afford to drive them. But on the whole they will go the way of the Dodo bird.

The only combustion engined cars that will have real collector value in 30 years are cars that are so rare today that ordinary mortals cannot afford them—even today.

If you're thinking that your run-of-mill early '80's SC will one day pay for your retirement, you will almost certainly be in for a rude surprise.

If the public interest and money is still there, the technology will follow.

It doesn't take much to design a replacement powerplant with a motor/fuel cell/whatever whether it's in the engine bay, or on the wheels.
-someone will make it work,
-someone will make it fit,
-and then someone will make it smaller and more powerful.

We should merge these two posts:

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-911-technical-forum/519315-911sc-longterm-values-discuss.html

Take it from the engineers here; gasoline will be around, and prominent, for many decades to come.

CNG is the biggest threat to octane.

Maybe some of the cars will get updated with new technology. I know I would not be averse to an electric motor/battery system that could compete with the Porsche motor on an even basis. We are not there yet although it could happen in what is left of my lifetime.

The electric motor/controller/battery system would have to have:
1. The same or more power
2. the same or less weight
3. the same or more range per charge
4. the same or less system cost
5. the same or less operating cost

Right now the technology to pull this off is not available. Once it is available it will be a while longer before it is affordable. I think power storage is the key.

I think plain old electricity will edge out hydrogen as the next transportation power source. ( IMHO ) I think it's time to start building some more nuclear power plants. Now where is my Mr Fusion for my flying car???

At what price/cost? I think the cost/availability of gasoline (and the environmental restrictions placed on gasoline engines) will determine how fast we switch to electric.

Exactly! People let their imagination extrapolate FAR beyond where the facts are.

Electric cars have been played with since... well; Dr Porsches first designbuild was an electric car. --about a hundred years ago.

An aircooled 911 will still be run and enjoyed, even if it means paying a lot for fuel or buying the gasoline at the drug store. And I agree with others above, 20 years is unrealistic. 50+ maybe.

George

Thats just it ...cost will keep electric cars at a premium price. Batteries are just too expensive. and, they still require energy to be produced. (not 'green')

Think of it this way... A battery is just a very expensive fuel tank.

There are few advantages to being an old fart. But one of them is knowing that what is or isn't collectable 30 years from now is not worth worrying about.

Don't be so sure, economies of scale can be very powerful. It's why my in-laws new $900 plasma TV would have been $4000 a few years ago. Widespread use of electric cars would significantly reduce the cost of batteries, motors, solar cells, etc. Really the biggest obstacle is the technology, current batteries are too heavy and don't have enough capacity, solar cells don't create enough power, and the charging infrastructure doesn't exist. Personally I think the future lies in fuel cells powering an electric motor, possibly powered by hydrogen. Honda's FCX Clarity uses this technology and supposedly works quite well. Another advantage is the ability to create hydrogen at your home. Still lots of obstacles with this technology, but it's promising. Also, lest we forget, electric motors produce 100% of their torque instantly.;)

I think it will have to do more with the aging baby boomers than anything else. In the next 10-15 years there will be a lot of Harleys and street rods being sold off by children of baby boomers. They don't want them and the market will be flooded.

IMO, "economies of scale" is NOT the show-stopper here. AS you said, batteries are heavy, and have minimal capacity. Also, even though the battery industry is huge, the product is still very expensive. (compared to a gas tank.) And, if that's not enough, batteries take forever to refill/recharge.(compared to a gas tank.) --Aurel (here) has been working on some promising fast recharge nano-technology, but it is still a much slower process than filling a tank of gasoline.

Everyone should understand that gasoline is some great stuff. It has high energy-density in a relatively stable liquid. This makes for a simple tank. ...not pressurized, not needing thermal management systems... And, the base to make the stuff (gasoline) comes from a very plentiful goo that is pulled out of the ground.

Hydrogen fuel cells need either VERY large tanks, or very expensive/complicated pressurized tanks (and systems)

. . . and the Pontiac Solstice Turbo Coupe

True dat. Economies of scale would help bring the price down, but there still needs to be a technological breakthrough in order to make electric cars a reality. Despite the recent panic in regards to oil, we still have a LOT left. That is without exploiting some of the more controversial sources. Despite what Al Gore would like you to think, gasoline isn't going anywhere for a LONG time.

There will always be gasoline- at a price. But even if gas was $10 per gallon, many of us don't put that many miles on our Porsche where it would make a big difference. We would probably chose another car for a daily driver.
I think early/mid 60's British sports cars are a good parallel. They are really only useful as hobby cars- much like the Porsche 356s of their era. The rare ones hold their value or appreciate. Others don't. The point being, as (or if) we get away from combustion engine cars for every day driving, then our cars become hobby cars. The interesting ones will be valued accordingly. But in context of all the cars out there, what cars made in the 70s/80s hold any real interest to collectors? We are probably better off than enthusiasts of most other relatively high volume brands. I would bet my money on an 85 911 over an 85 Mustang GT.

I've actually considered selling my Z28. The reason is 2 1/2 simple words. Cap 'n Trade, Cap 'n Trade, Cap 'n Trade. Sad, too, cause it's been restored nicely, but at 10 bucks a gallon, I'd rather buy beer.