Could this the the last days of SoCal?

[JavaBrewer]

Way worse than I expected. We lost BOTH the pitching target and the T...this is serious.

[Jim Richards]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

[varmint]

oh the humanity.


call the red cross back from haiti.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by dd74

I'd try Al Gore.

You got his e-mail address?

[RWebb]

damn! Look how bright the sky is! We'd kill for that up here...

[dd74]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

You got his e-mail address?

Nope. But I'm not the one *****in' about the weather, either.

[dd74]

Seal Beach -- tornado strike...

[SoCal911T]

I came home from work to find my pool overflowing and most of the patio roof in my neighbor's backyard.
The best part is the new leak in the garage roof that dripped water on all my repair manuals. Yay!

[campbellcj]

Both of our backyard cabanas/canopies launched. One landed upright on the lawn whereas the other is upside-down on top of the pool equipment. I can't lift 'em myself so will have to enlist some help once things settle down. Hopefully they are not damaged too badly. Yippee.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by dd74

Seal Beach -- tornado strike...

That's a Ford Exploder. They can flip in a stiff breeze.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by dd74

Nope. But I'm not the one *****in' about the weather, either.

Oh, I found it. It's manbearpig@giant-hoax.com
Thanks anyway ....

[dipso]

We're dead!

Today: A few showers early turning to a steady rain for the afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible. Windy. Gusty winds and small hail are possible. High 58F. Winds SSE at 25 to 35 mph. Rainfall near a half an inch.
Tonight: Rain likely...rather windy this evening with a thunderstorm possible as well. Gusty winds and small hail are possible. Low 51F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph, becoming E and diminishing to 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch.
Tomorrow: Windy with rain...a thunderstorm or two as well. High around 60F. Winds SSE at 25 to 35 mph. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Localized flooding is possible.
Tomorrow night: Windy with showers and thunderstorms likely - heavy rainfall is possible, especially during the evening. Low 47F. Winds WSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Friday: Showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 40s.
Saturday: Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Sunday: Abundant sunshine. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.

[McLovin]

Something I read:

"Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.


This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).


In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned...


Samuel Y. Johnson
Western Coastal and Marine Geology
U.S. Geological Survey
Pacific Science Center

Storm Watch 2010 – This Time It’s Personal | Los Angeles Metblogs

[JavaBrewer]

There goes baseball practice! A little rain on the local fields (poor drainage) and they are closed for a week.

[dd74]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Oh, I found it. It's manbearpig@giant-hoax.com
Thanks anyway ....

Search hard enough, and you shall find fortune.

Now, will you send that address an email decrying how this weather is indeed just Nature reminding us that she can be one angry Mommy Dearest?

[KevinP73]

Originally Posted by dd74

Now, will you send that address an email decrying how this weather is indeed just Nature reminding us that she can be one angry Mommy Dearest?

Pat Robertson said it was 'cause we have gays and lesbians running around freely here. So which is it, mother nature or the homo's?

[dd74]

Originally Posted by JavaBrewer

There goes baseball practice! A little rain on the local fields (poor drainage) and they are closed for a week.

Speaking of poor drainage, has anyone here in L.A. noticed the gutters that have been either welded up with plates, or blocked by sandbags? I wonder what the bright thinking is behind that. I'm certain doing this contributes to the flooding in so many streets and intersections.

What gives?

[TRE Cup]

have not seen the welded shut ones, but a lot of curb drains in the area now have strainer plates on them.
it keeps out the debris that chokes the pipes, and in turn backs up so no water gets drained.
The debris that comes from higher elevations could really stopper the drain system, so best it floats downhill and let the water thru

yeah.. the news crews gets left out in the cold when they show up in known problem areas. A lot of times the rain has stopped and they have nothing to shoot except the reporter and floating leaves.
Trust me ; some of the fire ravaged areas are thoroughly soaked and more rain will just take rocks and dirt downhill fast. Some 'hoods are a real mess

Seal Beach always gets flooded

[dd74]

Originally Posted by TRE Cup

have not seen the welded shut ones, but a lot of curb drains in the area now have strainer plates on them.
it keeps out the debris that chokes the pipes, and in turn backs up so no water gets drained.
The debris that comes from higher elevations could really stopper the drain system, so best it floats downhill and let the water thru

yeah.. the news crews gets left out in the cold when they show up in known problem areas. A lot of times the rain has stopped and they have nothing to shoot except the reporter and floating leaves.
Trust me ; some of the fire ravaged areas are thoroughly soaked and more rain will just take rocks and dirt downhill fast. Some 'hoods are a real mess

Seal Beach always gets flooded

Hmmm...yes, in my n'hood, they've been bolted shut, but with openings - so I guess technically not entirely shut. Sometimes there's a tarp pulled over the the drains as well. Of course that explains why there's more debris in the streets after a rain. So it is sort of a win/lose.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by TRE Cup

have not seen the welded shut ones, but a lot of curb drains in the area now have strainer plates on them.
it keeps out the debris that chokes the pipes, and in turn backs up so no water gets drained.
The debris that comes from higher elevations could really stopper the drain system, so best it floats downhill and let the water thru

yeah.. the news crews gets left out in the cold when they show up in known problem areas. A lot of times the rain has stopped and they have nothing to shoot except the reporter and floating leaves.
Trust me ; some of the fire ravaged areas are thoroughly soaked and more rain will just take rocks and dirt downhill fast. Some 'hoods are a real mess

Seal Beach always gets flooded

Seal Beach there...in Portland, the TV folks all head for the Johnson Creek area...