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Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 5364741)

China helps NK because their influence over NK gives them additional chips to play in the diplomatic game w/ the US and others. I suspect the prospect of refugees crossing the river is secondary.

If NK starts hostilities, NK will immediately become a liability for China, and China will apply all the pressure it can bear on NK to stand down. If hostilities escalate to war, with artillery shells landing in Seoul and US/ROK troops in combat, China will back away from NK as fast as it can run, because NK will then be an enormous liability for China.

China is remarkably rational and logical in its foreign policy, and its primary goal is economic growth. A major war on the Korean peninsula which crashes the Asian economy, sends commodity prices soaring and trade tumbling, and triggers re-arming across Asia as well as a renewed desire for the US military umbrella, will damage the Chinese economy to the tune of trillions of dollars. Far more than NK is worth to China.

There won't be PLA divisions pouring across the border this time. Geopolitical stability and mutually profitable trade with the West is China's lifeblood.
ul.

100% correct. The view from here in China is that Kim Jung Il is a bit of a wacko, but not one they cannot do much about really.

Nobody...and I mean nobody, outside his immediate North Korean clique has much influence over the NK leadership.

Many theorize that the rocket launches, nuclear testing and hostage takings are just tools for Kim Jung Il to keep his domestic opponents occupied with external crises, thereby solidifying him on the throne forever.

Nothing new here, everyone knows dictators like this can only exist in a crisis. The list is endless: Hitler, Stalin, Castro, Saddam, Ahmendajad. When they weren't actually threatened from the outside, they created a war or an internal threat, purge, what have you.

The sinking is probably another instance of "crisis making".

If anyone is expecting another Korean War a la Larry Bond's Red Phoenix, they will probably be dissapointed. This is what NK fears the most because it means they will lose the war and lose control of NK

If they start shelling Seoul, the US would surely get involved. You don't leave the capital of a major ally under siege. Of course, NK would lose a conventional war rather quickly. Keeping their army supplied with even basics like water would be rather difficult in a real battle situation.

If it goes nuclear...they also lose. The UN Security council (US, Russia, China...all security council members, all with troops on the NK border) would have to declare war or basically go the way of the dinosaur.