Here's an interesting "oil well" take:

[Gogar]

I admit I got this via my friend, an older fella, who falls for and forwards me every email spam scare he gets, but it is interesting:

The Oil Drum | Deepwater Oil Spill - A Longer Term Problem, Personnel - and Open Thread 2

What say you, guys in the industry? Sammy? Pazuzu?

It's long and I dont want to copy/paste, the gist:

We're not being told many specifics of the oil well 'capping', because the people 'in the know' already know that the well is leaking underground, and they know the 'capping' fix isn't actually going to seal the well, only direct the leaks in a different direction, which is even worse than the existing problem.

[cgarr]

So they are pretty much going to have to empty the reserve thru relief wells then?

[Gogar]

Well, let's say your hard oil line has a big gash in it right under the tranny,

and you try to fix the leak by undoing the end of the hard line over on the passenger side of the engine,

and putting a cork in it.

[einreb]

Originally Posted by Gogar

Well, let's say your hard oil line has a big gash in it right under the tranny,

and you try to fix the leak by undoing the end of the hard line over on the passenger side of the engine,

and putting a cork in it.

Call it a Porsche... put a pan under it... consider it 'patina'?

[porsche4life]

My dad has been talking about something similar... There are multiple fears that they will silence the mouse and unleash the lion so to speak...

[Pazuzu]

I do think there is some downhole damage to the well. Oil and gas are not only corrosive, but bringing sand and silt up at high speed, which will scour and abrade anything it moves along, like the wellbore. This was an exploration well, not a production well...the equipment, bore, cement, etc is not the same quality and strength as a production well.

Some of my contacts and I fully expected to see large chunks of wellbore coming out when they finally cut that riser off (meaning that the bore failed, cracked apart, and was shoved up into the BOP). We, of course, didn't see that, because the video feeds all turned away/died when they finally opened the riser.

Hmm...

The relief wells will/should hit below the wellbore damage, so they'll allow the deepest part of the well to be sealed anyways.

[VINMAN]

Mike,
just out of curiostity, maybe it has been answered previously, but why couldnt the BOP be closed manualy?

[Pazuzu]

Several reasons.
1) The BOP has no sealing power anymore, all of the rubber/seals have been sandblasted away, and all of the sealing shears are abraded. It would never hold pressure.
2) There is something in the BOP that's blocking it from closing. Drill pipe, cement, baby aliens, something.
3) All of the hydraulics are FUBARed now between them pumping mud backwards through there for the top kill, and seawater infiltrating everything. I don't think there is a true manual switch (like a screw closing gate). Remember, this thing is 500 tones, 80 feet tall, and under a mile of water. It's not really meant to have someone walk over and put a wrench on a bar and close it.

Honestly, #1 trumps them all, it wouldn't matter if it was in 100% working order, they would close it and create a high pressure, high velocity flow through the busted seals.

[red-beard]

Are you sure that the scouring will take place? The velocity is pretty low, maybe 8-10 feet per second.

[Pazuzu]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Are you sure that the scouring will take place? The velocity is pretty low, maybe 8-10 feet per second.

I was told by people who know the BOP intimately that it was destroyed within the first week, if not sooner. It's just not designed to deal with abrasive and corrosive materials flowing through it like that.

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by einreb

Call it a Porsche... put a pan under it... consider it 'patina'?

Lord knows there is lots of Patina under my Porsche.

LOL...

[DanielDudley]

Is this not why they will drill the second well ?

[David]

I'm certainly no expert, but my opinion is the only real fix is the second well.

I also think the only thing that will prevent this in future is criminal charges for those who made these decisions and those who allowed these decisions to be made (at least those who didn't die in the blast.)

In my business, electrical power generation, it is made very clear to us in management that criminal charges and prison time are the likely penalty for putting production over safety as well it should be.

[red-beard]

As well it should be.

[Willem Fick]

Wow, thanks for the link! I spent a very entertaining morning exhausting all subsequent links, and boy am I glad this is not my problem to solve!