Pelican Parts Forums - Out of the market today...

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 5542044)

The mistake in judgement

There was no mistake in judgment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 5535418)

Right now, there's just too much going on for me to be comfortable.

In the end, he examined his risk tolerance and 'judged' that he should not be so heavily invested in equities.

Commercial re cap rates are up, and interest rates are down. If you are highly liquid, you might look at ownership of indiv parcels of say cvs, walgreens, arco.......

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 5542044)

I have been watching the Stock and Bond Markets EVERYDAY for OVER 20 years...I have been invested in the Stock and Bond Markets for OVER 20 years...after awhile you just get to know what the stock market wants to do...it is kind of like being married..you become familar with the other persons habits.

If you didn't get IN and OUT of the stock market at the right moment, your return over the last 20 years was mediocre. Dow and SP500 return is around 4-5%/yr over the past 2 decades. This doesn't include dividends, but it also doesn't account for inflation. If we narrow the horizon to the last decade, the numbers aren't worth mentioning.

Regardless of whether he's right or wrong, Wayne is doing a great job. He's willing to look at the numbers, think rationally, and make a decision. You'll never get ahead swimming with the other fishes. I think the idea of buying a new warehouse is superb. If his business can support the expense, it's a great way to control growth/returns.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rusnak (Post 5542919)

Commercial re cap rates are up, and interest rates are down. If you are highly liquid, you might look at ownership of indiv parcels of say cvs, walgreens, arco.......

Are banks even lending with 20% down? Doubt most of us here have a couple million in cash laying around.

Last time I was looking at commercial RE--2 years ago, the cap rates were 4 to 5.

Quote:

Originally Posted by turbo6bar (Post 5542988)

Are banks even lending with 20% down? Doubt most of us here have a couple million in cash laying around.

Last time I was looking at commercial RE--2 years ago, the cap rates were 4 to 5.

SBA will loan on 10% down. I'm buying a 5-6k small wharehouse. I can get a warhouse for under $119 a square foot. I do not need a retail zone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 5542804)

Short term fluctuations in the market do not bother me, whether or not they go up or down. As stated previously, I have a very different risk profile than most people here. I have people's jobs that I wish to protect in a potential downturn. Most people don't realize that running your own business is a very inherently risky proposition. Adding to that, having 95% of everything in the stock market, well, that's just not a really good risk profile. I put a lot of funds into the market when it was rock bottom (6500), and I ended up recovering my losses from when the DOW was at 14,000. After being on that roller coaster ride, I think that break-even is a very fine place to be at this time. Besides, I have some other investment options I'm looking at right now (that I will share probably next month). I still have about 25% in various markets.

If the market doubles from this point, oh well. I'm sleeping pretty well at night not worrying about it (I have lots of other things to worry about).

-Wayne

As part of any business model one has to keep a Cash or Liquid reserve to meet exigencies. That said that Capital has to be kept as risk free as possible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 5543368)

You guys must have ESP or something. Or am I that predictable?

-Wayne

we know you want another warehouse just for a server farm...