Real Estate: bottom yet, else how far from bottom?

[john70t]

Some of my favorite memories of youth are of boating with my elderly grandfather on their lake up in north-west Mich trying to catch turtles. I'd stand on the front, net raised, demanding "faster, faster", and the poor man would try to accelerate a square boat from stand-still fast enough over 50 yeards to touch a lightnng bolt, knowing it was impossible.

If there "flexability" with the sellers, the comps are in range, and your family feels the same as you.... then go for it. But always plan long-term with your head, not the heart.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Let me see....... interest rates @ 4.3% for 30 years ........ houses selling for 25% + under asking or at buyer offer.... no you more knowledgeable (obviously some sort of uber-economists) are right ..... still more room for housing to drop..........

See "More Bad RE News" thread for insight. Opinions are like asses.

Have you considered the specter of an economy entering a lengthy deflation period? I do not think it is highly likely, but the subjective reasoning you present above is akin to thinking that got us to this point.


Souk, if the property does fall in value, you aren't LOSING any money if you don't sell. Your timeline is long enough to be immune to cyclical fluctuations. On the other hand, if you're there forever, it is wise to spend plenty of time to find the PERFECT property. Forget good enough. Forget maybe. Get the perfect property and have fun.
my best to you,
jurgen

[john70t]

The 25-60 years are usually the most decisive in a person's influential life.
Enjoy life.

[Taz's Master]

Originally Posted by Soukus

T'sM - no timber that can be sold.

Ideally I'd want the natural growth to act as a buffer and provide privacy. There are homes on 3 sides of the property with an upscale development behind it.

My parents are gardeners and they pretty much garden 50% of their current yard. The are from the old country and I would not be surprised if we end up gardening and raising chckens if we were to buy this property. A lot if it is currently trees and natural growth with trails. There's even a small orchard. The wife has always wanted her own cherry and apple orchard. So the extra acres wouldn't be so bad and if we decide to just let it grow it would be fine with me. There are areas around the house and barn that are grass the wouldn't consume my afternoon to mow.

Anyhow, we saw the house and barn today and the place is better than expected. The previous owner was a car guy. They still have a Model T or sometime like it in there. A BMW Isatteta (?doesn't come to mine right now the model exactly). A bunch of motorcycles and a Cosmopolitan modped or something that's still in the shipping crate from 40 or so years ago!

We've involved our friend and real estate agent and we're looking at other properties in the area that may be comparable. Because the place is under contract anything can happen. We're going to see a 10 acre place that also has a barn (but not as big or nice), and the property is more "developed." It's a little further away, but priced 100K less.

Because we intend to retire at such a place the rules of the game is a little different then if we were just buying a bigger house. With 6 kids we would love the bigger space and 5 of the 6 are boys. I think we'll get plenty of use from such a place. I'll have plenty of help to care for a place, and if the kids want to live in the area when they have a family we'll parcel off some land for them to build a house on.

But while the kids are growing up, I see a large property as a potential outdoors playland for them with dirt bikes and ATV's. Of course having a large barn for all my vehicles... A car guy's dream. Even with a second garage on our current property I am wishing for more space.

Even if I were to pay extra or lose a 100K for such a place, that would be fine for my situation 10-30 years from now. How much does one place upon the luxury of space and privacy for our kids to have a place to roam around on during their childhood? We would be just fine living where we are now, but if you'll recall my "boat versus a vacation home"'thread, I think a large place with acres to roam on would be like being on vacation year round with dirtbikes, snow mobiles and other outdoor activities.

I've always been one to put a lot of emphasis on opportunity cost since my Economic class with Dr. Gottlieb my freshman year in college. Growing up my parents never really vacationed, and I never got to do things that I think my kids will enjoy doing on such a property, so the opportunity to provide those experiences for them holds a lot of value for me. The idea off walking down the hill to our own .5-1.0 acre fishing pond with my young kids has a lot of appeal to which I can't put price upon. It's things like that which makes we willing to gamble on the place holding value in the near future. I can play it safe for the next 30 years and retire with plenty of money to travel the world many times over, but the kids will be busy with their lives and more times then not it'll just be my wife and me. Sure it'd still be enjoyable, but the opportunity to play with the kids on our own little outdoors playground will have passed.

As posted above, money is cheap now, and property prices cheaper than it will be in 10, 20 or 30 years.

I can relate to your sentiments and scenario remarkably well, my advice is far from objective. I've already done it and have no regrets, but I did my own construction and didn't have the same financial risk.