I DON"T THINK SO.....(see above)

He SEEMS to be gone as well.

The Army is going to set it up so that elections are held in about 1 year....to give time for a political process to begin...that is according to nominal Opposition Leader Elbaradei.

The Egyptian Army is a moderating force, much as the Turkish Army is in Turkey.

He sits on the Supreme Council so I doubt that he is going anywhere. Nothing on Al Jazeera or BBC about him disappearing to his villa. Perhaps the council will feel that he is tainted but as the former intelligence head, he knows where all the dirt is. We will have to watch it play out.

Ian

Then I think in the course of the next year there will be a birthing of a host of new political parties in Egypt along with the surfacing of those forced underground by the regime.

For starters, every religion and sub-sect will want representation. This whole situation could end up very complex indeed (as if it wasn't already).

I haven't yet tuned in to the overseas news stations...so I have a question:

What of the rest of Egypt? We know that Cairo and Alexandria have led the protests, but what of the small villages etc? There will be people all over the country who are pro-Mubarak because they feel safest with the status quo and consider it better to keep what they have rather than force a change which takes them into the unknown.

I see more unrest coming to these people...

Egypt's military has a very strong interest in keeping the country stable and moving the economy forward. They are literally a military/industrial power house making consumer goods for the population !
So Mr. out of touch Mubarak will not be able to pull the strings to hard in orchestrating much more of this "Mubarak supporters beat up on "revolutionaries" " business

welcome to the ME...

Egypt is not Iran...Egypt was conquered by Alexander and ruled by the Greek Ptolemies with Cleopatra being the last of the line. Then it was 400 years of Roman rule...So Egypt has a long tradition of Western influence.

Secondly and here is a big difference..Iran fell to an Islamic theocratic rule during the Cold War. At the time the USA was blind sided because we were focused on Communist led revolts. Whoever thought of such a thing as an Islamic takeover??? The difference and dynamic is that the US response isn't so inflexible for lack of a better term.

Also with Democracy and freedom being offered it under cuts the appeal of fundamentalism as a means of governance. Now there is a viable alternative.

Rememer it was the young folk of Iran who revolted after the fraudalent election and it is the young in Egypt who want a change...These people do not want the ways of the 14Th century they want to be part of the 21St century...

The next 11 countries to revolt?

Now See The 11 Countries At Risk Of Becoming The Next Egypt

Hamas is full of young folk..

Rika

Tabs,

No need to lecture me on the ways of the ME...I know those ways only too well.

My father was Christian Lebanese...Melkite Catholic (and so am I). He emigrated to Australia in 1952; visited Lebanon in 1965 and then we as a family spent 12 months overseas in 1968 and the summer in Lebanon. He knew then (both in '65 and '68) that trouble was brewing and there was no hope of his birth country ever seeing true peace again.

He became a Naturalised Australian in 1962. I asked him once a very difficult hypothetical question...if Australia and Lebanon were ever on opposing sides in a war; which side would he choose. He answered without any hesitation that he would choose Australia; such was his allegiance to his adopted country.

My mother was born here in Aus, her parents emigrated from Lebanon in 1926. Her family are Greek Orthodox.

I know the problems facing the ME...I have watched Lebanon fall into an abyss. A country that only a few decades ago was so very different from what it is now.

I agree that Egypt is not Iran and that times are now different...but I do not expect to see a settled Egypt any time soon.

I already thought of that one...

The PLO Party that was the alternative was seen as being corrupt. Also U have the fact that the Israelis keep their thumb on Gaza...and Hamas represents strident opposition to the Israelis.

In the Arab world Hamas and Hezzebolla are not viewed as terrorists but FREEDOM FIGHTERS. It is only Israel and the US that labels them as "Terrorists."

Interesting list Glen...

No one ever said the road wouldn't be BUMPY..and even what the US gets might not exactly be to the US's liking...the Egyptians might have their own ideas..

With these events in Egypt every two bit dictator, religious fanatic or tyrant from Timbuktu to Beijing should be afraid....TABS

Well I bloody well hope so as this is what their reform is all about...my biggest concern is that their road to democracy will be tainted.

BUT...one can hope that their army is indeed loyal to its people. This is more favorable than an army that is loyal to its leader. Plus, Egyptians seem to respect their constitution as a meaningful document. They want constitutional amendments for the next election to ensure that other parties can run.

Whose "road to Democracy" wasn't "tainted" the US had Slavery until 1863...

True, that...

Euphoria in Arab cities as Mubarak ousted | Herald Sun


here we go...it's started...

It certainly will be interesting (& perhaps frightening) to see what happens with the fundamentalists in these countries.

Guess I'm not going to see the pyramids

Hmmmm...

There is a BIG family reunion for my mother's side in April in Lebanon. Some of my cousions are going. I voiced my concerns a few MONTHS ago to them...before the elections. AND a couple of them are planning to spend a few days in Syria.

I voiced my concerns; said I wouldn't consider it safe to go in the foreseeable future. Their response? Oh we'll be OK...we'll just stay out of the trouble spots...fools!