What Will The Death Toll From The Japan Earthquake Be?

[jyl]

I realize this is somewhat crass, and apologize.

But . . . this was a huge quake, and a huge tsunami, in a densely populated, heavily coastal country. On the other hand, Japan is perhaps the most earth-prepared country in the world, and the most prepared for a tsunami, has spared no expense in its civil precautions and construction standards, and is going all out in its response. When man and nature collide, how much can man limit the damage?

Poll underway.

Rules: deaths caused by or related to earthquake, tsunami, and all aftershocks, including rescue efforts, through all mechanisms, be it crushing, drowning, freezing, burning, radiation, motor vehicle accident, aircraft accident, medical errors, consequences of power outage, hysteria, self-inflicted, or otherwise, so long as the death occurs within 1 month of today.

[Hugh R]

In my limited experience with emergency response, its usually 10X the report of the first day. Sorry to say. I've heard reports of 500 dead, so 5,000 which would be pretty amazing compared to Haiti. Hope for the best.

[dd74]

Don't know what the death count will be, but I fear it would be much higher if a quake like that hit L.A. or San Francisco.

[BeyGon]

I'm not going to make a guess on how many people die, but I will guess they won't have looters like we have in our big cities everytime something happens.

[daepp]

I am looking for a discussion board of people in the know on nuke power. Anyone found anything?

[Zeke]

Originally Posted by DAEpperson

I am looking for a discussion board of people in the know on nuke power. Anyone found anything?

The news has it that it is near melt down. If so, that will skew the death toll.

[s_morrison57]

Originally Posted by milt

The news has it that it is near melt down. If so, that will skew the death toll.

Milt, I hope I'm right and your wrong, but if you look at 3 mile island and the melt down there, it was contained in the building due to safety factors and proper construction where as Chernobyl's melt down was not contained and the building burnt and radiation escaped.
The Japanese build good stuff so we can hope this will carry over to the safety's they incorporated in their plant as well as the construction of the building

[scottbombedout]

At least 9,500 missing in one town alone.

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by scottbombedout

At least 9,500 missing in one town alone.

That statistic alone is appalling. I won't guess but it will be a a high figure.

The reactor explosion will be a massive clean up operation that will also cost lives.
It won't be as bad as Chernobyl but it will be significant.

[David]

The really scary thing is their population density is so much higher than any civilized country I know of. Add to that the fact that their houses are mostly wooden construction and not built to last 100+ years like in the US.

[BeyGon]

When you have a 25-30 foot wall of water filled with cars and trucks, busses and boats coming at you, wood or concrete, things aren't going to be good.

[sammyg2]

More people died in teddy kennedy's car than at three mile island.

The nuke plant's troubles are so far hugely exaggerated compared to the rest of their problems. tomorrow it will be snowing and freezing in that area, I suggest that poses a much greater threat than the nuke plant.

[BeyGon]

Sammy, the snow and Ice will melt, the nuke problem will be there for a very long time, and the cloud could drift to Orange.

[356RS]

This is kind of a bummer guessing on the death count. I hope I'm wrong but 50K to 75K could be possible and very unfortunate. My prayers to all in Japan.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by BeyGon

Sammy, the snow and Ice will melt, the nuke problem will be there for a very long time, and the cloud could drift to Orange.

Been watching the drama queen news again? A ditsy blond and a tool in a suit who only knows how to smile isn't the best source for technical info.

The news has been exaggerating, sensationalizing, and generally BS'ing the situation there to try and CREATE drama.
They are not smart enough to realize there is already enough real drama going on, they don't have to make it up.
But thousands of people missing or dead doesn't do it for the average mush-heads who get their info from 5 second soundbites, no.

They need to be SCARED by claims that are completely baseless or exaggerated, fictitious scientific claims that are just made up, WRONG details, and just generally irresponsible reporting.


Did anyone else notice that for the first day almost every news channel intentionally showed footage of the OIL REFINERY FIRE each and every time they discussed the nuke plants? Fox, NBC and ABC all did the same thing.
Time and time again they did it.
Every time the subject of the nuke plants came up, the instantly switch video to the oil refinery fire.

Showing a nuke plant with nothing visible going on doesn't create drama, so they decided to show film of two LPG spheres at an oil refinery going into a BLEVE.

That really wouldn't bother me that much except the world is full of people who know nothing about nuclear generating plants. They know nothing of the design or construction, the safeguards or the risks.
These people have no real knowledge on the subject so their opinion is easily formed with the first BS untruth they hear. This thread is perfect example of that.
They see a refinery fire and actually think that's a nuclear generating station. It's deceptive and dishonest, but it works.

There are several members of this forum who do have real knowledge on the subject. I believe IROC is one, there are others in the Tennessee area. I've worked a nuke plant and have spent time in containment.
I've stood there and looked down at a nuclear reactor.
I've done repair work on a reactor. Granted I worked there for less than a year before accepting a better paying job but that year was enough to become generally informed on the subject.

That's a boiling water reactor, as long as it is submerged in water it will continue to cool down. Time is on our side.
The reactor is shut down, in other words the reaction has stopped. THAT is a big detail.
It still contains a great deal of heat. They just have to gradually take that heat away over the next several days.

If the reactor had not been shut down or the control rods (generic term, not sure if the control mechanisms in that reactor are actually rods) had jammed or could not stop interrupt the reaction, then a loss of cooling water would be very, very serious and could easily lead to a melt-down. but that is into the case here.

If the water around the core gets hot enough to vaporize into steam, it would stop cooling and almost acts as an insulation layer.
If that happened the heat in the core could build up and can melt part of the metal tubes the fuel pellets are encapsulated in.
If those tubes melt there is some risk of radioactive release.
But right now, all they have to do is try to keep the water around the core cool enough to keep it from turning into steam.
The fuel is cooling down, it just takes time.
If they can circulate the water through heat exchangers and circulate cool water through the other side of those exchangers to get rid of the heat they'll be fine. I seriously doubt they are at risk of a melt down, not at this stage based on what I've learned.

I believe the explosion they talked about on the news was the secondary containment building, not the primary.
My best guess was that it was a steam explosion, possibly due to relief valves lifting (which are safety devices), maybe they had a rupture of something else. but the amount of radiation released from that would not be catastrophic.

Yes it is serious, but not for the reasons some have mentioned.

Like I said before, I am sure that more people in that area will die from exposure to the cold temperatures over the next week than from radiation.
PERSPECTIVE!

[widebody911]

Could be much worse, but (from what I've read) they have the most stringent building codes w/r/t seismic safety, and they have the best tsunami early-warning system in the world. If this had happened in some 3rd world country like China or Orange, CA, you may as well just pave it over.

[johnnywishbone]

i spent 18 years, off and on, at san onofre nuclear generating facility. i installed and calibrated what they call class II safety related instrumentation systems. i also ripped out, cleaned, and re-installed urinals and toilets. whatever they wanted, for a buck. i trusted that plant completely. the japanese are no less efficient than we. i think they will do a good job. i'll bet wolf blitzer knows more about weiners than he knows about nuclear plants. jmho, jp

[DanielDudley]

They are flooding the inner containment with sea water. That is serious enough. Some of the radioactive material already released suggests a partial melt down already occurred.

They do have good containment if they can keep the heat down. IT ISN'T VERY PRETTY, AND NEITHER IS THIS THREAD.

[Por_sha911]

Originally Posted by jyl

I realize this is somewhat crass,

So then why do it? I just read where we were upset at some Japanese tourists laughing while visiting the USS Arizona at Pearl. This poll is not far off on the poor taste meter. I would think Pelicans have more class than this.
Rant over.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

So then why do it? I just read where we were upset at some Japanese tourists laughing while visiting the USS Arizona at Pearl. This poll is not far off on the poor taste meter. I would think Pelicans have more class than this.
Rant over.

I'm interested to see how accurate our perceptions of the severity of an event are, while information is still fragmentary.

I imagine a lot of people in Japan are discussing the likely death toll, right now. I don't really see why we cannot also do so. I'm not, myself, laughing.