What's the deal with airline tix these days?

[Rick Lee]

I know they're getting more expensive because of fuel prices and how the airlines buy futures. I'm trying to find a good deal on a flight to Frankfurt or Duesseldorf around Memorial Day. They're around $1400 through Kayak on a few airlines. Yet, US Airways has specials all day long for $279 each way plus taxes, probably around $700 total. The catch is that the trip has to be completed in the next 30 days. I'm sorely tempted to push my luck and wait until about the first week of May and hope these kinds of deals are still around. My travel dates are very flexible. But why is booking 2-3 mos. in advance twice as expensive as booking a few days in advance? How does this business model work?

[Gogar]

A person who books their flight 3 months ahead obviously has fixed or tightly defined travel 'plans', and is very unlikely to change their itinerary. They'll pay a premium to fly on the right day, at the right time.

the casual traveler who books in the days before a flight is likely to not book at all if the flight is too expensive, so the airline must lower prices to get butts in the seats, and cut their losses.


The third one, the last minute 'emergency' traveler will also pay a premium.

[Hugh R]

In the next 30 days they know fuel prices because they hedge and buy options to stabilize price changes. In 3 months, who knows what will be going on in the World.

[masraum]

I had a thread a couple of years back asking the best timing to buy tickets. The result which has proven to be trueits that the best time to buy tickets is 3-6 weeks out.

One thing that I've found is that if you do too many queries for the same flight (changing days and times to look for cheaper flights), they will jack up the price.

[Noah930]

Originally Posted by masraum

One thing that I've found is that if you do too many queries for the same flight (changing days and times to look for cheaper flights), they will jack up the price.

Then I'm gonna start doing inquiries re: flights from AZ to Dusseldorf and/or Frankfurt for around the end of May.

[Rick Lee]

About 12 yrs. ago I got stuck in Frankfurt, trying to fly home standby. I spent a few days sleeping on benches there before I finally walked over to Air France and asked about any last minute, one-way deals to Dulles. $275!!!! I whipped out my credit card and was on the plane in about an hour. Looks like I'll have to wait another month to book and get the right price. While my dates are flexible, I am going to see a Rush concert on 05/29 and my German class's 20th reunion the following Sat. So I have to be there that week. But arrival and departure dates have three days of room on each end.

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by Noah930

Then I'm gonna start doing inquiries re: flights from AZ to Dusseldorf and/or Frankfurt for around the end of May.

I am sure there are a few nutbags here who would bother with such an endeavor, all of whom are on my ignore list.

[Schumi]

As someone who likes to plan travel erratically I would like to see an average airline ticket cost versus booking date graph..

It is obviously very expensive to book way in advance, at some point gets less expensive, but then close to the flight date gets tremendously expensive.

[Rick Lee]

I had a non-stop, roundtrip form Phoenix to Seattle a few weeks ago for $168 total. I screwed up bad and didn't notice I had booked the departure a day too late and so I showed up at the airport a day early. Getting that fixed cost close to $1000 and rerouted me through San Jose. I actually booked a one-way on Southwest for $405, but since I was going to miss my US Airways departure the next day, they'd have canceled my return flight. So I had to rebook it as a one way, which, of course, tripled the cost. It was just insane. Why couldn't US Airways have just left my return flight as is and given my departure seat to someone else? They'd have made more money that way. What a clusterf*&k that was. Totally my fault and my company forgave me. But sheesh.

[Racerbvd]

Nutz, I know, I wanted to Fly to Naples, FL, but with flights ranging from $300 to $800, and go through Dulles end up in Tampa, Time, 5 hours & 10 minutes, I could drive faster, so I checked Amtrac, $41 to Tampa (less that it cost to fill my gas tank) and 5 hours & 19 minutes.. Aitlines in gerneral are screwed up right now, as I vcan fly across country for $$$$ than I can across the state..

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Schumi

As someone who likes to plan travel erratically I would like to see an average airline ticket cost versus booking date graph..

It is obviously very expensive to book way in advance, at some point gets less expensive, but then close to the flight date gets tremendously expensive.

THE CHEAP TIME IS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 WEEKS OUT.


I know that I have monitored ticket prices to visit my mother, and right about 6 weeks out, the ticket prices will drop. And when I say drop, I'm talking about ticket prices 7 or 8 weeks out being between $400 and $600 and at 5 or 6 weeks the same ticket is $225. I can also tell that if you're buying 1 week out you may pay $600 and up for the same ticket. Less than 3 weeks and it will be somewhere in between cheap and expensive, maybe $330-400.

I have also had this happen 3 times (so I don't do it any more). I was shopping for tickets to go someplace, with a flexible itinerary, maybe a vacation that I can shift 3 days forward or backwards. So I would search for the tickets over the weekend and then check out the same tickets during the week. I may have done 5 to 10 different searches for the same tickets over the course of an hour or two. Suddenly, bam, I decide, "I'll buy the cheap one" except that what was costing $250 2 minutes ago is now $400. I was amazed that they had an algorithm that monitored queries and would push tickets up.

Here are some other related threads.

Timing airline ticket purchase for best price, advice please?

Airline tickets someone want to explain this to me

[Schumi]

That logic may work for US continental airfare, but my fare queries are to Germany (not so bad), Guam (impossible to find flights), and Thailand (all over the place).

I'm coming up on time to make some plans.

[Gogar]

You can do a search for your trip on Kayak and there's a link on the lefthand side that says "Show Fare Charts" that shows the trends for pricing on your selected flight.

Here's the trends for an imaginary flight i made for Rick from Memorial day for a week.

[cstreit]

Pricing of tickets is adjusted daily and reflects a ton of different factors including fuel, crew, fees, but also demand and availability.

Airlines use sophisticated demand and market price shaping software to maximize revenue per seat. I know some of the PhD's that designed the algorithms. ...no I don't have a back-door.

For example, as available seats go down, price goes up. They try and set the price just high enough so that they will fill every seat.

[legion]

Originally Posted by cstreit

Pricing of tickets is adjusted daily and reflects a ton of different factors including fuel, crew, fees, but also demand and availability.

Airlines use sophisticated demand and market price shaping software to maximize revenue per seat. I know some of the PhD's that designed the algorithms. ...no I don't have a back-door.

For example, as available seats go down, price goes up. They try and set the price just high enough so that they will fill every seat.

Some other factors are the origin, destination, round-trip or one-way, etc...

In Bloomington, I can get a dirt cheap flight booking as close a week out. At O'Hare, it's more like 30-60 days.

[red-beard]

I had a very odd social studies teacher who for vacation would take out $10K, go to the airport, and then pick a flight...

[cashflyer]

It cost me $9400 for a last minute business trip in February.

[A930Rocket]

I booked my sons swim camp for May last month. With fuel and mid-east issues, I figured it would be cheaper than waiting too close to departure, but who knows...

[TimT]

I have been traveling to Beijing every few months to visit my wife while our immigration case slowly makes its way through our civil servants hands

May '10 I paid $949 round trip NY to Beijing

Jan '11 I paid $1150 for the same trip...

I just checked Expedia for my planned June trip $1513

Those are the published rates...

I know through my wife the places to go in Flushing where the ticket prices ares typically $100 less than expedia.. or kayak..

Wifey used to tell me to wait outside, or I would pay qwielo price for tickets..

The agent knows me now.. apparently the $300 fuel surcharge is built into the price now....

effin speculators...

[Gogar]

Originally Posted by red-beard

I had a very odd social studies teacher who for vacation would take out $10K, go to the airport, and then pick a flight...

$10k? Musta been a public school.