End Game in Libya?
 

It looks like Tripoli will fall anytime. Gaddafi keeps yapping from his hole as the neighborhoods fall to the rebels & the party begins! Interesting times.

Ian

Not soon enough...
Interesting times indeed, after Egypt we now see Syria going for the end of an (oppressive) era.

And then what happens? That is the conundrum for me in the mid east area. There is such history of tribal competition and conflict, And loyalty to tribe vs country. That I am concerned that once freed of the oppression of a heavy handed strongman, bedlam in the form chaotic tribal conflict ensues. A similar fate seems in store for Iraq, Afghanistan etc.
Sorry if I am going too PARFie.
Any one see another way for this to go?

Cheers Richard

I'm guessing we'll see Islamic states pop up once the US-backed dictators are deposed.

Yeah, that whole overthrow the dictator and end of tyrany thing worked out so well for the Russians.

It's okay. It's not like this cost the US taxpayers anything, it's not like it gave oil speculators and companies a reason to profiteer and jack up prices, it's not like we're engaged in nation building and it's not like the US component of the "kinetic action" was done unconstitutionally or in clear violation of the war powers act or anything like that.

Oh wait...

How much have we spent over there? It's not like we spent a trillion dollars we didn't have over 8 years, made huge profits for our own families and hundreds of defense contractors at the cost of thousands of American lives, etc...

Maybe we should have gone in the Bush/Cheney/GOP "coalition" way.

Sometimes events in the world are much bigger & more important than petty US political bickering.

Ian

And sometimes events in the world are best left as sovereign affairs of the nations they affect, without meddlsome intervention by imperialistic ex-superpowers teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

The new rebel government will stop being chummy with the USA as soon as we turn the money spigot off and it'll be "meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Watch and see. How many times do we have to make the same mistake with nation building before it sinks in that it doesn't work and doesn't create western/US-friendly democracies?

you only say that because you aren't a U.S. citizen. ;)

The toxic political climate here is fueled by money=speech, corporations are people, and the hatestream media(TM), all gobbled up by a citizenry incapable of independent, critical thought and analysis, but spurred on by 30 second, sometimes heavily edited, video clips and talking head sound bites.

So I guess US foreign policy efforts should always hinge on the ability to make everything go your own way. You would think that the lessons of the last 50 years would have sunk in somewhere. So, it doesn't matter that this dictator was a fruitcake (although his Amazons were entertaining). It doesn't matter that he has been caught red-handed financing pre-9/11 terrorism. It doesn't matter that he oppressed his country for 40+ years. All that matters is: What's in it for us right now? I know, I know . . . it is naive for my to think otherwise . . .

btw I AM a US citizen. But I am a Canadian citizen as well & I like to think that straddling the border gives me a unique perspective into both country's mentalities.

Ian

I would argue that the lessons were learned, but only by those that can use them to exploit the U.S. economy and political climate for personal gain. That group has learned the lessons well and use them for their own profit, whether for money or power. Everyone else below squabbles over minutia, very few see the big picture and/or long term consequences to short term actions, and those that do are not in a position to change anything.

Gaddafi knew enough to walk the fine line. You can avoid American intervention by doing that, you can't avoid internal strife forever. Ask the Shah if Iran. Helps to have oil too.

Even if that is the only criterion, what the hell is in it for us right now? What benefit does this whole operation give us, even if it goes really well? Q had changed his ways after 9/11. He gave up his WMD program. He fessed up to Pan Am 103 and paid the victims' families. He turned over al Megrahi for prosecution. What more did we want from the guy? And this is the thanks he gets? Great example for other dicators, thinking about doing the right thing and wondering what's in it for them.

I agree...but who (whom) are the "rebels".

I can't get an analysis of them...if you have one, please direct me.

This could either be the end game or kick-off.

German television interviews these rebels daily, and I have yet to see someone over 20. They're all children really. Many appear to be non-Libyan

There is a guy that the German foreign minister talks to regularly who seems to have some credibility.

But with regime change as drastic as this its all about arse-covering and jockeying for position at the trough at the moment. We'll have a fresh crop of Libyan oligarchs in no time. Those politicos who covered their arses most successfully (with hard currency) will assume positions of power in the new regime. The rebels will be paid off with new toys. For a while complete chaos will reign. And then someone so thoroughly corrupt and ruthless that he can keep all the other contenders in line and also secure a steady flow of Libyan oil to Europe will emerge to take the helm. Then NATO will pat itself on the back, and say it was worth it.

Something like that....

I'm sorry, I'm not following you given my quote you selected.

Sent a PM earlier.

As I said in another thread, "Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."

No worries...I simply have not learned enough about who the players are in the Rebel movement.

Sorry for any confusion, Shaun, unintended.

what we have is a bunch of monkeys..
attempting to open a can of bananas...
they will of course destroy the can...
having never heard of a P-38..
we will then spend billions in aid to fix's the can..

Rika