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-   -   Let's talk Tesla again. (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/632768-lets-talk-tesla-again.html)

ckissick 10-02-2011 10:28 PM

Let's talk Tesla again.
 
Read the attached article and tell me why a good-looking, $50,000, 4-door sedan with a relatively decent range won't sell. Their 2-seater has a very limited market but this car should appeal to a lot of people.

Tesla Model S "Will Be Faster Than A Porsche 911" - Yahoo! Autos

porsche4life 10-02-2011 10:35 PM

I'm excited to see more about it, and I hope for the sake of progress that it is successful.

island911 10-02-2011 10:52 PM

" $49,900 (after U.S. Federal Tax Credit) " of course... :rolleyes:

Quote:

"The oil companies said electric cars can't work, but the truth is, they don't want them to work," Musk said.
Note the artful way of Not saying that they do work

island911 10-02-2011 11:13 PM

Also, with a top speed of only 130mph, just which Porsche 911 is it faster than?


note :
Quote:

. When production began in 1964, the 911 had a 2-liter, 6-cylinder engine, 130 hp, a top speed of 130 mph,
Maybe one of the 1968 sportomatic 911T's was only good for 129mph. maybe.

ah, progress

KaptKaos 10-02-2011 11:27 PM

"Racing improves the breed."

All of these claims and improvements mean nothing until they start racing these things.

svandamme 10-02-2011 11:27 PM

There's a dude on our parking lot that has a Tesla.. he can only drive it to work every so often when he is absolutely sure that he has no detours to make, else he can't make it home on a charge.

svandamme 10-02-2011 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KaptKaos (Post 6288628)
"Racing improves the breed."

All of these claims and improvements mean nothing until they start racing these things.

Agreed, and in my opinion that's where F1 should come in.
They oughto change the rules so innovation is no longer penalized
and instead penalize fuel consumption get's extra weight or time handicapped.


They always said, if the F1 engineers put their mind to it, they can make cars run on water.. Well, somebody put their mind to it already!

Porsche-O-Phile 10-03-2011 03:20 AM

Quote:

" $49,900 <b>(after U.S. Federal Tax Credit)</b> " of course...
Caught that... And the fact that it's extra $$$ for the extended range packages. Question is - how much more $$$?

Also I really wonder about the viability of electric vehicles in anything other than naturally comfortable climates. Either electric resistance heaters or air conditioning compressors take a hell of a lot of juice to run; what's the REAL range on one of these cars when you have to climb into it on a cold morning and run the heat on full blast or on a hot afternoon when you have to run the a/c?

And the big question - what will this REALLY cost to get an "optioned" Tesla that will really be able to be used like any other car without worry? $90k out of pocket? $100k?

I love their cars and would definitely buy one as a "fun car"/toy but then again, if I want a toy (not a DD) why would I buy a sedan? Answer: I wouldn't. I'd buy a sports car. Which is why I think Tesla's getting rid of their roadster was an idiotic move. That car (especially with continually-improving performance and range) is one I could seriously have seen myself buying.

If big automakers and/or the oil companies don't kebash these guys and they can hang around for 10 more years, I'll bet they'll get the technology to a point where it can work commercially without subsidy. That'd be outstanding. Anything to curb oil/gas consumption is worth doing - as long as it can get to that point, and it sounds like these guys are well on the way to getting there.

GH85Carrera 10-03-2011 05:44 AM

The Tesla Roadster is based on a Lotus and it is a TINY car. I drove one at the track and it is fast and fun, but you don't get in the car you put it on. It would be OK for a 5.5 - 110 lb guy but that is not most American men.

The roadster cost more than a new 911 and has a very limited range.

ckissick 10-03-2011 06:45 AM

P-O-P makes very good points. I could live with a 200-mile range car; that's about the range of my Westy, and I never need more than that on a normal day. Can't take the Tesla camping, though.

But without subsidies, is it viable? Probably not. If investors could make a profit at some point, then wouldn't Tesla go through venture capitalists instead of Washington?

island911 10-03-2011 07:15 AM

in addition to the tax breaks, Washington (teamO) gave Tesla a half a Billion dollars in guaranteed loans. ...same for Fiskar. IOW, it's been raining money on these "green" (wink wink) business.

The big fault in the plan, is of course, the pesky fact that hydrocarbons are cheap and have a much higher energy density than battery packs.

Zeke 10-03-2011 07:21 AM

Tesla has all but run out of cars to install their components in because Lotus is out of production on the model. They better get ready to sell some sedans to survive because if they want to continue the roadster, they will have to tool up.

jyl 10-03-2011 09:13 AM

TSLA has raised a bunch of financing from the capital markets, more than from govt loan guarantees.

The roadster is going away because the shell is Lotus, it is very expensive to make, and TSLA has to focus on the models that it actually makes in-house.

The Model S looks like a hell of a car. Stupid expensive maybe but so is a Panamera or a 7-series.

island911 10-03-2011 10:03 AM

I think that they are over-hyping the performance. --a sign that they don't believe in it's merits.

I mean, promises of Porsche-beating performance, all for a govt subsidized $50k?

Why can't they just be honest? ... $50k (g-sub'd) will get you car that can eek-out a range of 160 miles, OR give a few fast bursts of 0-60 in 5.6_sec's OR touch on 130mph... OR carry four around in comfort.

...or does anyone believe that the $50k (g-sub'd) model will take a full load to 60mph in 5.6_sec's AND up to 130mph FOR 160 miles? --of course a Porsche can hit those combined metrics with ease, w/o an "either/or" compromise. But then the Porsche buyer pays big tax (sales & road) whereas the Tesla buyer gets a big govt subsidy.

kaisen 10-03-2011 10:06 AM

Same whiners complain about the Volt. They are ALL subsidized in one way or another by the US government and most states. Telsa is creating jobs, right here in the USA, in California where GM/Toyota idled a plant and laid off workers. Good for them.

island911 10-03-2011 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289251)
...Telsa is creating jobs, right here in the USA, in California where GM/Toyota idled a plant and laid off workers. Good for them.

Manufacturing cars in CA ... Wow, if that doesn't tell you something about the political/business decisions here, what would?

The good news is that they are green jobs - you know, where green gets laundered into campaigns. coughSolyndraCough

onewhippedpuppy 10-03-2011 10:23 AM

Nice promotional piece disguised as journalism. Until battery technology catches up, electric cars will be not be effective as anything but city cars and political statements. Every electric car review that I've read fails to meet the published range in real world driving.

kaisen 10-03-2011 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 6289278)
Every electric car review that I've read fails to meet the published range in real world driving.

Start reading. There are TONS of real-world range articles as many readers share your concerns. You'll find dozens of Volt and Leaf reviews that have specifically addressed and tested real-world range.

onewhippedpuppy 10-03-2011 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289286)
Start reading. There are TONS of real-world range articles as many readers share your concerns. You'll find dozens of Volt and Leaf reviews that have specifically addressed and tested real-world range.

Probably, but I tend to doubt a car review written by username iluvpuppies on some Yahoo chat room. I'm referring to professional journalists.

I also don't lump the Volt into the same boat, because you can always fill it up with gas in any podunk town. But until pure electrics can get better than 100 miles worth of range, they're not going to be relevant for anything other than city commuting.

kaisen 10-03-2011 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 6289307)
Probably, but I tend to doubt a car review written by username iluvpuppies on some Yahoo chat room. I'm referring to professional journalists.

I also don't lump the Volt into the same boat, because you can always fill it up with gas in any podunk town. But until pure electrics can get better than 100 miles worth of range, they're not going to be relevant for anything other than city commuting.

Edmunds Inside Line has put over 10,000 miles on their long-term Volt (purchased off the showroom floor).... I'm guessing Scott Oldham isn't a journalist? He's a friend of mine. Anyway, the Volt's EPA range (electric only) is rated at 35.0 miles. Edmunds has averaged 38.4 miles TESTED RANGE over 10,000 miles of real-world driving.

2011 Chevrolet Volt: 10,000-mile Recap

"We recently broke the 10,000-mile barrier in our 2011 Chevrolet Volt. What's happened so far? A faulty charging cable sent us to the dealer and Chevy announced it was lowering the price of new Volts. That's it. Oh, unless you consider it's fuel economy noteworthy...

To date we've driven 3,946 miles on electricity and 6,054 on gasoline. For the sake of argument, let's call that a 40/60 split. At just 40 percent, our utility factor is low.

According to the SAE, a vehicle with a projected electric range of 35 miles should be spending closer to 58 percent of the time on electricity. We drive the Volt like a normal car. So a handful of long distance, gasoline-only trips to Las Vegas and San Francisco have influenced this factor adversely.

On the electricity front, we are performing better than estimates. Note here that this is a measure of consumption. At 33.7 kWh/100 miles we are actually using less than the 36.0 kWh the EPA expects.

Gasoline efficiency isn't quite as positive. Our 34.2 mpg average is a fair amount worse than EPA estimates. But we've seen it reach into the 40s under the right conditions.

The total cost per mile to own our Volt thus far is surprising. We used the California (CA) and national (N'tl) averages for electricity and gasoline prices to calculate the cost/mile. These figures do not include any maintenance, simply fuel. Here in Santa Monica the Chevy cost us 9.1 cents per mile to operate. For reference, a Toyota Prius would cost considerably less, 7.7 cents per mile. The Prius figure assumes its 50-mpg EPA rating, though we've yet to back that up through testing. Nevertheless, it gives you something to chew on for comparison.

Mike Schmidt, Vehicle Testing Manager @ 10,000 miles"

onewhippedpuppy 10-03-2011 10:50 AM

Like I said Eric, I wasn't referring to the Volt. While I think the Volt still doesn't make sense from an ROI standpoint, it is a cool piece of technology and a much easier concept for the general public to swallow. With no range concerns you could buy one and use it as your only car, unlike the electric only options.

kaisen 10-03-2011 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 6289322)
Like I said Eric, I wasn't referring to the Volt. While I think the Volt still doesn't make sense from an ROI standpoint, it is a cool piece of technology and a much easier concept for the general public to swallow. With no range concerns you could buy one and use it as your only car, unlike the electric only options.

If you removed or disconnected the Volt's ICE (gas engine) you could still feel comfortable driving the EPA rated/stated range of 35.0 miles based on Edmunds long-term average of 38.4 miles. That was your initial point. So it is possible that Tesla, Toyota, Nissan, and others would perform similarly. In other words, the range claims may not be smoke and mirrors. As we've all read before, 40 miles range would cover 75% of Americans' daily driving/commuting. If the big-daddy 85KwH Tesla S can do 300+ miles, that's certainly as much as most cars with gas tanks.

As for quoting 0-60 times AND still getting stated range estimates.... are you freaking kidding!!?? Guess the range of a Bugatti Veyron under full throttle!

onewhippedpuppy 10-03-2011 11:09 AM

I'll believe 300 miles when I see it.

turbo6bar 10-03-2011 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289310)
The total cost per mile to own our Volt thus far is surprising. We used the California (CA) and national (N'tl) averages for electricity and gasoline prices to calculate the cost/mile. These figures do not include any maintenance, simply fuel. Here in Santa Monica the Chevy cost us 9.1 cents per mile to operate. For reference, a Toyota Prius would cost considerably less, 7.7 cents per mile. The Prius figure assumes its 50-mpg EPA rating, though we've yet to back that up through testing. Nevertheless, it gives you something to chew on for comparison.

Hmmm, that's interesting. I assumed the Volt would cost much less per mile since it uses less fuel and more electricity. If cost per mile is higher than a Prius, it's hard to justify the electric hybrids.

kaisen 10-03-2011 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turbo6bar (Post 6289394)
Hmmm, that's interesting. I assumed the Volt would cost much less per mile since it uses less fuel and more electricity. If cost per mile is higher than a Prius, it's hard to justify the electric hybrids.

Edmunds average cost per mile is based on 60% gasoline and 40% electricity. If you drove around town or shorter trips, and not long road trips like they did, YMMV as they say.

Under electric-only use, Edmunds saw 33.7 kWh/100 miles. At the US average of $.12 per kWh (not taking advantage off off-peak rates) you'd be at $.04 per mile with the Volt, as tested by Edmunds (electric only).

See the article linked above. There are charts with their 10,000 mile report.

cairns 10-03-2011 11:52 AM

Oh Kaisan here you are hyping the Volt again. But I suspect you have yet to actually buy one- or am I wrong?

The facts are the Volt is an overhyped two arm ugly failure heavily subsidized with our tax money. It is nowhere near meeting the sales targets GM set for it (10,000 per year- they've sold 3,895 and there are hundreds-if not thousands- sitting on dealer lots). The Buick for grey hairs made on the same production line is outselling it two to one. The Leaf is doing the same thing.

In short, the Volt is just more proof that the government should not make business decisions.

The Tesla, while also subsidized, promises performance and range that would surely sell- if Tesla can deliver. And they are beautifully designed. But all we've really seen is a lot of hype and one small, very heavy overpriced Lotus with a very limited range. Could you take it to the track, flog it all day and drive it home the way you can a real Elise?? No friggin' way.

For now I think Island said it best- hydrocarbons are cheap and battery technology has a long, long way to go before it's going to be viable much less affordable.

Let investors risk their money- and quit risking ours.

turbo6bar 10-03-2011 11:56 AM

Yeah, it does look like a YMMV thing. The ~30 mile range to obtain the low cost-per-mile is a real drawback, IMO. That's because I'm in the suburbs. I'm really surprised it only managed 34 mpg. The lower cost Prius seems like the clear winner.

kaisen 10-03-2011 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cairns (Post 6289453)
Oh Kaisan here you are hyping the Volt again..

Nope. Correcting misconceptions. Argue all you want if your facts are straight. Even then there's enough interpretation on how you use the facts.

But facts are facts. Regurgitate those. Not the misconceptions.

island911 10-03-2011 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289344)
...

As for quoting 0-60 times AND still getting stated range estimates.... are you freaking kidding!!?? Guess the range of a Bugatti Veyron under full throttle!

Comparing a Tesla to a Veyron? ...are you freaking kidding!!??:cool:

So, I had to look... a Veyron is capable of 250-something mph, at 3 mpg on a 25+gal tank. That gives you 75miles covered, and a coast-down from 250mph. ...maybe another 5 miles. That is half the best range of a Tesla at what... 40_mph?

I expect that the Veyron's range at 130mph (Tesla's top speed) is better than the Tesla's at 45mph . . and you will get to a gas station, fill up and go long before the Tesla finds a plug and an over-night charge.

The EPA hwy for the Veyron is 13mpg -> a 325_mile range.

IOW, the comparison is just silly.

..42 kW·h battery pack vs 1000+ kW·h gas. (and that 1000+ kW·h is calc'd on energy to the wheels - losses included.) ...silly

jyl 10-03-2011 12:53 PM

Not at lot of people buying $70,000 cars are packing up the kids and going on 400 mile roadtrips. Compare the % of $70K cars in Beverly Hills with the number passing through Hungry Valley on Hwy 5. They may take trips to Mammoth or Aspen but they have the Cayenne for that

cairns 10-03-2011 12:57 PM

K,

The facts are that virtually no one- not even you- wants to actually buy a Volt- even at it's subsidized price. I know that's hard for you to live with but the sales records speak for themselves and are readily available. No matter how great you say it is, no matter how much you tout the technology- no matter how much you believe in it- no one wants the POS.

Only 3,895 cars have been sold- and the vast majority of those are fleet sales to federal and local governments- look it up yourself if you don't believe me. When you take into account how many other cars have been sold in this country- or narrow that to how many hybrids- and narrow that to how many Priuses- the fact becomes even more obvious- the Volt is a dismal failure.

I'm just wondering how long it will be before they're discontinued.

Sorry,
C

island911 10-03-2011 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 6289555)
Not at lot of people buying $70,000 cars are packing up the kids and going on 400 mile roadtrips. Compare the % of $70K cars in Beverly Hills with the number passing through Hungry Valley on Hwy 5. They may take trips to Mammoth or Aspen but they have the Cayenne for that

Maybe, but Not at lot of people buying $70,000 cars are packing up the kids and and taking them to work. ...maybe driving them to private school ...but they have mini-vans and nannies for that. :)

Porsche-O-Phile 10-03-2011 01:31 PM

Tire life on a veyron is the limiting factor for top-speed endurance, not fuel capacity.

kaisen 10-03-2011 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911 (Post 6289509)
Comparing a Tesla to a Veyron? ...are you freaking kidding!!??:cool:

Extreme point, but it could be made for any car. Want to look at 0-60 times or top speed? Then you are NOT going to get the EPA rated range that manufacturer's advertise.

Quote:

So, I had to look... a Veyron is capable of 250-something mph, at 3 mpg on a 25+gal tank. That gives you 75miles covered, and a coast-down from 250mph. ...maybe another 5 miles.
Veyron is good for 2.0 mpg at full throttle and a 26 gallon tank, so 32-33 miles..... roughly the same as the electric range of the Volt under REGULAR driving. Both would have coast-down depending on how fast they were going when they ran out of fuel/energy.

Interestingly, the Veyron gets about 5.0 mpg at 40 mph.

kaisen 10-03-2011 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile (Post 6289648)
Tire life on a veyron is the limiting factor for top-speed endurance, not fuel capacity.

No, the Veyron will run out of fuel in 12 minutes and the tires are rated at 260 mph for 15 minutes. It will run out of fuel first

island911 10-03-2011 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289662)
Extreme point, but it could be made for any car. Want to look at 0-60 times or top speed? Then you are NOT going to get the EPA rated range that manufacturer's advertise. ...

of course. But the electrics are especially sensitive in their metrics. That is, they seem to compare their 'best case' to the gas versions 'typical'. ...or do you expect that those Tesla numbers (projected performance and all :rolleyes: ) are apples & apples to typical gas cars? ...running AC, heat, heated seats, Big Bose sound system...

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaisen (Post 6289662)
Veyron is good for 2.0 mpg at full throttle ...

fwiw, Wikipedia gave 3mpg

teenerted1 10-03-2011 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 6289555)
Not at lot of people buying $70,000 cars are packing up the kids and going on 400 mile roadtrips. Compare the % of $70K cars in Beverly Hills with the number passing through Hungry Valley on Hwy 5. They may take trips to Mammoth or Aspen but they have the Cayenne for that

here is just a little of what i have seen driiving across the the country?
$50k pickups dragging a $100k camper.
$500k mega RV's
$70k bmw driving to visit grandma over the holidays.
$250k lambos driving back and forth across the country multiple times trying to forget a failed relationship.
$100k porsches driving to utah for a ski weekend.
1919 model t driving from coast to coast.

what i havent seen out on the vast freeways of america's west or more than 50 miles from a urban 220 outlet
chevy volt
nissan leaf
prius electric
tesla
smart car of any size
1978 vw rabit w/25 24v marine batteries

onewhippedpuppy 10-03-2011 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cairns (Post 6289567)
K,

The facts are that virtually no one- not even you- wants to actually buy a Volt- even at it's subsidized price. I know that's hard for you to live with but the sales records speak for themselves and are readily available. No matter how great you say it is, no matter how much you tout the technology- no matter how much you believe in it- no one wants the POS.

Only 3,895 cars have been sold- and the vast majority of those are fleet sales to federal and local governments- look it up yourself if you don't believe me. When you take into account how many other cars have been sold in this country- or narrow that to how many hybrids- and narrow that to how many Priuses- the fact becomes even more obvious- the Volt is a dismal failure.

I'm just wondering how long it will be before they're discontinued.

Sorry,
C

I believe these would be the relevant facts at hand. I would have an easier time supporting the Volt as a experiment in new technology if I weren't paying for it. Honda didn't ask the government to fund its experiment with the FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

I can go buy a practical, simple, reasonably fun to drive Mazda3/Ford Focus/Hyundai Elantra for under $20k that gets 33+ MPG. Or I could spend twice as much (after tax credit) for a complicated, equally practical, and distinctly not fun Chevy Volt that gets about the same MPG. Tell me again why the Volt makes sense. I'm not a big Prius fan, but at least they get better MPG and don't cost much more.

Hawktel 10-03-2011 04:53 PM

I'd consider the 300 mile range tesla. If they get the price down to 40Gs.

300 mile range would cover me 98% of the driving I wish to do.

kaisen 10-03-2011 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 6290055)
I believe these would be the relevant facts at hand. I would have an easier time supporting the Volt as a experiment in new technology if I weren't paying for it. Honda didn't ask the government to fund its experiment with the FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

Honda (and GM, and BMW) received money from the Federal Government for the advancement of Hydrogen fuel cell technology.

ALL major manufacturers have taken money

ALL major manufacturers have benefitted from 'alternative fuels' initiatives AND hybrid incentives.

It's not just the Big Three. They're all "guilty", if that's the correct way to phrase it.


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