AAPL: How high will it go?

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by motion

The stock market is nothing more than legalized gambling these days, and has been that way since the advent of the internet and cheap/easy internet trading. My theory is that the internet has allowed hacks like me to play the market (and lose), which benefits the institutional investors exclusively (at my expense).

It also benefits careful investors like me who avoid "playing" the market.

And BTW "Thanks!"

[911pcars]

It's only gambling when results are left to chance. I'm implying the gambling part of it is for the masses, not for the manipulators.

Sherwood

[enzo1]

google buys Motorola for 12.5 b in 2011, sells it for 2.5b today and the stock goes up after hours...btw, read somewhere apple made more money in this quarter than amazon, netflix and google did all year...

[RWebb]

the 2.5 Billion sale price is for the dead husk of MOT from which Google has sucked out all the useful IP

[enzo1]

Originally Posted by RWebb

the 2.5 Billion sale price is for the dead husk of MOT from which Google has sucked out all the useful IP

Daring Fireball:
“I bet it would take longer to literally flush $9.5 billion in cash down a toilet than it took for Google to do so figuratively on the Motorola acquisition.”

[motion]

Originally Posted by RWebb

It also benefits careful investors like me who avoid "playing" the market.

And BTW "Thanks!"

You must be a really, really smart guy. Much smarter than I.

[RWebb]

Nope. But I do the work.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by enzo1

google buys Motorola for 12.5 b in 2011, sells it for 2.5b today and the stock goes up after hours...btw, read somewhere apple made more money in this quarter than amazon, netflix and google did all year...

Well Amzn and Nflx don't make anything. So, of course aapl makes more than GOOG. And a stock doesn't go up because they just lost 10 bil. They already lost that money. Maybe people expected them to lose 11bil on it. Or maybe they are just relieved with a quick sale that won't bleed cash anymore. Get it?

[aigel]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

Well Amzn and Nflx don't make anything. So, of course aapl makes more than GOOG. And a stock doesn't go up because they just lost 10 bil. They already lost that money. Maybe people expected them to lose 11bil on it. Or maybe they are just relieved with a quick sale that won't bleed cash anymore. Get it?

Google gutted Motorola, specifically patents and talent. The majority of the Motorola IP stays with Google. They got what they wanted and are moving on. It is like you'd buy a rough looking 911, pull engine, trans and sell the roller for cheap to get it out of your garage. This is why the market did not count this as a failure.

G

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Seriously? Al Gore was one of the first in Washington to see the potential of the Internet.

I am not sure what you missed when I said "private sector". That means someone with real business experience.

Al Gore is part of the real problem with Washington as he is a full-time politician.

What does Gore add in a Board Meeting of the world's largest tech company? Absolutely Nothing. The real players ignore him.

Originally Posted by 911pcars

Who are these "analysts" who predict a company's pass/fail status?

I've been in this business.

First: When a stock gets it's own thread on an internet message board, you should get rid of it quickly. It's at it's high.

Second: When the founder and chief technology dude is dead, you need to understand Warning #2.

The market is done with Apple. It isn't coming back to levels of before.

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

First: When a stock gets it's own thread on an internet message board, you should get rid of it quickly. It's at it's high.

What a great modernization of the "shoeshine boy" indicator.
The starting of this thread coincided with the peak of APPL TO THE DAY.
8/22/2012 Absolutely uncanny.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

....I've been in this business.

First: When a stock gets it's own thread on an internet message board, you should get rid of it quickly. It's at it's high.

Second: When the founder and chief technology dude is dead, you need to understand Warning #2.

The market is done with Apple. It isn't coming back to levels of before.

Time will tell, but just a couple of points I'd like to make....

This is the "current" AAPL thread...as I recall, there have been quite a few that date back to about the time you joined this board. Yep, without John Watson, the co will NEVER be the same. Plenty of pros (with billions at stake) simply disagree with you.

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

What a great modernization of the "shoeshine boy" indicator.
The starting of this thread coincided with the peak of APPL TO THE DAY.
8/22/2012 Absolutely uncanny.

I've read a few of your posts regarding 911s in recent weeks (I normally don't visit the market place) and here on OT. You're pretty good at "cherry picking" data imo...clueless about "some" things, but pretty good none the less.

I'm certainly not a pro, nor an Apple devotee, but this "cash cow" isn't about to stop producing anytime soon imo.

[PushingMyLuck]

Here is why AAPL is screwed.

They've been selling their $600 iPhones via heavy cell provider subsidies.
Well, those subsidies are now tapering off. ATT and T-Mobile, in particular...

During the next upgrade cycle, do you think people are going to fork out $600 cash for a cell phone?
Not when you can get a smartphone for $99 retail with no plan.

I have a significant bearish put ladder portfolio in place.
Over time, AAPL is going to get chopped in half from here.
When it does, I will buy myself a different colored 2015 911 for each day of the week.

[RWebb]

change your screen name to "PuttingMyLuck"

[911_Dude]

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

Here is why AAPL is screwed.

They've been selling their $600 iPhones via heavy cell provider subsidies.
Well, those subsidies are now tapering off. ATT and T-Mopbile, in particular...

During the next upgrade cycle, do you think people are going to fork out $600 cash for a cell phone? Not when you can get a smartphone for $99 retail with no plan.

I have a significant bearish put ladder portfolio in place.
Over time, AAPL is going to get chopped in half from here.
When it does, I will buy myself a different colored 2015 911 for each day of the week.

AAPL has been disappointing lately for those long. But Im not ready to give up on them yet. If they dont come out with something significant this year I will change my mind. The last couple of years of phone upgrades have been weak at best. iphone, ipod, tablets- I dont think they are done yet.

[motion]

Since I'm an Apple fanboy, and own a nice chunk of AAPL, I remain optimistic, but secretly, I believe Apple died along with Steve. That's really sad, but I believe its the truth. Tim Cook is nothing like Steve Jobs, and I don't believe he can bring out the best in Jonny Ives and the army of creative people at Apple. We've all seen this before, during the Gasse and Scully eras.

[techweenie]

No doubt Steve is irreplaceable, but Apple is going to be building his products for at least the next 2 years. He left a 5-year product plan. Nothing like knowing you're going to die for a year or more -- working with the same fierce focus he always had -- to map your legacy.

Apple isn't 'over.' Not just the fanboys, but some smart money says so:

Carl Icahn, Who Can't Stop Buying Apple, Just Bought $500 Million More - Forbes

[motion]

For sure, Carl's comments keep me in the aapl play.

[biosurfer1]

I don't think it's anyone's fault Apple is possibly heading downhill, it's more a testament to Jobs. I don't know of a more important head of a company ever. As much as he may have tried, you can't pass that creativity on or teach it.

[pitargue]

Steve Jobs was also a phenomenal marketeer. The iPhone 5S is actually a spectacular piece of hardware which includes the 64 bit processor and the finger print scanner. Just the 64 bit processor, which is beautifully optimized for it's intended use made all the smart phone makers pucker. Unfortunately, no one knows how to push this info to the general public, which thinks the 5S is just like the 5, which it isn't. You can bet that all the other smart phone makers will be offering a 64 bit smart phone next. If it wasn't so important for those in the know, they wouldn't be offering it.

Perhaps the former CEO of Burberry can mix things up. (I doubt it.)