How Do You Make Decisions?
 

Suppose you have a decision to make.

Further suppose it is something quite complicated, that cannot be answered with a numerical calculation or a snap judgment. A life choice, a business decision, etc - something where you are faced with many uncertainties, unknowns and unpredictable branches. I'm not talking about solving an engineering problem or anything similarly trivial.

How do you make the decision?

Sure, presumably you gather the available relevant information, but then what?

Do you:

A. List and sum the pros and cons of various scenarios in an explicitly "logical" and game-theoretic manner and drive to a probability optimized conclusion? (Spock)

B. Think about the pros and cons of various scenarios until your subconscious, or intuition, or gut feeling, or emotional intelligence, finally arrives at an answer with which it/you feel "comfortable"? (Kirk)

C. Some other process (explain)

Are you satisfied with your decision-making process? Do you think you should or can change it?

C. Choose the one with the largest breasts.



That was easy.

Very much B.

And very few regrets.

Both A and B. depends on the situation

Yep.

I've always had smart women in my life...I let them decide. :cool:
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ps Actually, fairly true...I enroll my women in my personal stuff...objectivity, and all that, ya know?

Unless I have a strong opinion, I tend to use the "E - Triple M " system.













Eeny-Meenie-Miney-Moe :D


Best
Les

I follow Dr. Who's approach. It is quite effective.

You think it over in your mind for a while and try to come to a conclusion about the pros and cons of going each direction. Then you bring out a coin and flip it with the understanding that if it comes up heads you will go one direction; tails and you will go the other direction.

As the coin is tumbling in the air you will find that you are hoping that the coin will come up either heads or tails. That's your instincts are telling you is the best decision.

When given limited data to decide the outcome of some question, and where you can't know the right answer until after you've made your decision, studies have shown that going with your visceral gut reaction - your instincts, if you will - gives you the best outcome. More data tends to make the person feel better about his decision but tends to result in a worse outcome.

I think the reason for this is that we make the best decisions when we are most emotionally detached and most objective. More data sometimes is just more of a distraction. If you can find a way to strip away the things that cloud your judgment based just on the facts and deductions that are most important, you make the best decisions.

That's what flipping the coin does. It strips away all the extraneous stuff and leaves your mind unclouded to tell you what is really the best decision.

B and C. I also many times discuss the decision and try not to make the whole decision alone. I will add that I take a long time unless some emotional situation occurs. If it's negative, I will react and decide in seconds. I don't work with negative.

I like that, MRM.
I'm retired so the only important deal for me is which T-shirt to wear with which pair of shorts. :D

grab my ass to see if my wallet is there-

then B

Whole process takes about 3 seconds- how I bought one of my cars once (on my way back from Dim Sum)

rjp

Start the process of A, but it morphs into B. I have a habit of over researching and over analyzing situations, but almost always feel comfortable with my decision after the fact.

I ask my wife and do the opposite.

D. Poorly

But I don't have a specific way of getting there :p

E) Start a thread on a chat board asking how others make a decision, or simply put up a poll of choices ;)

A type of bio rhythmic feedback as you are more likely to succeed with an increase in the confidence level of one's decision.

C. Make a list of pros and cons for each direction. Take your lists of pro and cons and order them on importance. Number each list, from most import at 10, subtracting 1 as you go down. If it is a pro, put a plus by the number, and a - if it is a con.

Add up the numbers on the list. Highest number is the right decision. Usually the list with the most pros and cons wins!

These seem mutually exclusive or at least contradictory.

I think the coin toss is effective because by tossing the coin you have made the decision to finally decide. You either agree or disagree and go with it or against it.

I go with B, usually.

I take something of a zen approach, I just do what I'm supposed to do. Not many things in life worth getting one's bowels in an uproar over.
Jim

I think that what MRM has said is that the only thing that the coin toss provides is that moment when it's in the air when you notice that you wish for a particular outcome. It's that wish that determines what you will do, not the way the coin lands. In fact, once you notice what outcome you wish for, you can just catch the coin and not even look at it.
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As I understand the strategy.

I've overruled the coin many times. That is a bit of interesting philosophy or psychology that when you commit to making a decision, a decision will be made.

I have used all 3 depending on the situation.

At work, or before that in school, I use A and am pretty rigorous about it. So it always bothered me that in life decisions I was unable to do so, but rather used B. as I've gotten older and maybe wiser, I've decided that to think that A can work for the really hard decisions is an arrogant over-estimation of my conscious intelligence. It still bothers me but I'm more accepting of my limitations.

C. By not deciding, you have made a conscious choice.
--or--
C. What will be important ten years from now?

thinking will always get you into trouble...don't think just do then when it turns out to be the wrong thing don't do that again...

.......

I do a list and talk to people I know and trust.

When I worked for the bank I went on decision making course (I still can't decide if I liked it or not :rolleyes: ) and to cut a long story short you draw a line down the middle of a page. One side is "For" and the other is "Against". Think of anything related to it and have it weighted out of ten then enter it in the appropriate column.
after 30 or so entries add up each column and see which one has the highest score.

An example. Shall I move to another town.

For - close to the beach 7
Against - I'll miss my friends 10
Against - slightly windy 2

and so on.

That makes too much sense...way too logical for me. :)

I am a 'redshirt'.
No matter what my decision, I will not be in the next episode.

Across the hall in college was a legally blind guy who was preparing to enter U of M Law School the following fall. He carried with him the Great Arbiter. His arbiter was a Liberty silver dollar and was used many times per day.

The man would have earned a straight 4.0 GPA in undergrad studies but for earning a 2.0 in phys. ed. bowling as a sophomore. Pys. ed. was a requirement at the time.

I for many years subsequently carried my own Great Arbiter until losing it when my canoe overturned in the Pine River during a flash flood. Bad decision there.

I do my decisions by apologetics. I look for the any pitfalls or negatives to the decision. Once I have found a solution to those negatives or, I have concluded that the unsolvable possibilities are acceptable risks then I go for it. It is a more cautious approach that forces me to make logical rather than emotional choices. This isn't something I knowingly do but I realized that this is how I'm naturally wired. Its not for everyone but it has worked well for me.

"This isn't something I knowingly do but I realized that this is how I'm naturally wired. Its not for everyone but it has worked well for me.'
~~~~~~~~~~
Similar to my style...more instinctual than any thing else.
When I've been creative in my life, I always give credit to Muse...as it seems that I was never the source of any of it, but rather just the vehicle through which some energy spoke.

Ask 3-5 independent and knowledgeable people whom you trust.
Contemplate their opinions thoroughly, over time.

Make your own decision.

A valid process. The only thing I would add is based on the old adage:
"Don't take financial advice from a guy who's broke"
Be sure to get advice from folks who are successful in the area you are making a decision.