How Do You Make Decisions?

[jyl]

Suppose you have a decision to make.

Further suppose it is something quite complicated, that cannot be answered with a numerical calculation or a snap judgment. A life choice, a business decision, etc - something where you are faced with many uncertainties, unknowns and unpredictable branches. I'm not talking about solving an engineering problem or anything similarly trivial.

How do you make the decision?

Sure, presumably you gather the available relevant information, but then what?

Do you:

A. List and sum the pros and cons of various scenarios in an explicitly "logical" and game-theoretic manner and drive to a probability optimized conclusion? (Spock)

B. Think about the pros and cons of various scenarios until your subconscious, or intuition, or gut feeling, or emotional intelligence, finally arrives at an answer with which it/you feel "comfortable"? (Kirk)

C. Some other process (explain)

Are you satisfied with your decision-making process? Do you think you should or can change it?

[Chocaholic]

C. Choose the one with the largest breasts.



That was easy.

[legion]

Very much B.

And very few regrets.

[gprsh924]

Both A and B. depends on the situation

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by gprsh924

Both A and B. depends on the situation

Yep.

[Don Ro]

I've always had smart women in my life...I let them decide.
.
ps Actually, fairly true...I enroll my women in my personal stuff...objectivity, and all that, ya know?

[oldE]

Unless I have a strong opinion, I tend to use the "E - Triple M " system.













Eeny-Meenie-Miney-Moe


Best
Les

[MRM]

I follow Dr. Who's approach. It is quite effective.

You think it over in your mind for a while and try to come to a conclusion about the pros and cons of going each direction. Then you bring out a coin and flip it with the understanding that if it comes up heads you will go one direction; tails and you will go the other direction.

As the coin is tumbling in the air you will find that you are hoping that the coin will come up either heads or tails. That's your instincts are telling you is the best decision.

When given limited data to decide the outcome of some question, and where you can't know the right answer until after you've made your decision, studies have shown that going with your visceral gut reaction - your instincts, if you will - gives you the best outcome. More data tends to make the person feel better about his decision but tends to result in a worse outcome.

I think the reason for this is that we make the best decisions when we are most emotionally detached and most objective. More data sometimes is just more of a distraction. If you can find a way to strip away the things that cloud your judgment based just on the facts and deductions that are most important, you make the best decisions.

That's what flipping the coin does. It strips away all the extraneous stuff and leaves your mind unclouded to tell you what is really the best decision.

[Zeke]

B and C. I also many times discuss the decision and try not to make the whole decision alone. I will add that I take a long time unless some emotional situation occurs. If it's negative, I will react and decide in seconds. I don't work with negative.

[Don Ro]

I like that, MRM.
I'm retired so the only important deal for me is which T-shirt to wear with which pair of shorts.

[RANDY P]

grab my ass to see if my wallet is there-

then B

Whole process takes about 3 seconds- how I bought one of my cars once (on my way back from Dim Sum)

rjp

[Aggie93]

Start the process of A, but it morphs into B. I have a habit of over researching and over analyzing situations, but almost always feel comfortable with my decision after the fact.

[vash]

[URY914]

I ask my wife and do the opposite.

[KFC911]

D. Poorly

But I don't have a specific way of getting there

[RWebb]

Amazon.com: Command Decisions (9780160019128): Kent Roberts Greenfield, Martin Blumenson: Books

[racer]

E) Start a thread on a chat board asking how others make a decision, or simply put up a poll of choices

[70SATMan]

Originally Posted by MRM

As the coin is tumbling in the air you will find that you are hoping that the coin will come up either heads or tails. That's your instincts are telling you is the best decision.

.

A type of bio rhythmic feedback as you are more likely to succeed with an increase in the confidence level of one's decision.

[red-beard]

C. Make a list of pros and cons for each direction. Take your lists of pro and cons and order them on importance. Number each list, from most import at 10, subtracting 1 as you go down. If it is a pro, put a plus by the number, and a - if it is a con.

Add up the numbers on the list. Highest number is the right decision. Usually the list with the most pros and cons wins!

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by MRM

...As the coin is tumbling in the air you will find that you are hoping that the coin will come up either heads or tails. That's your instincts are telling you is the best decision...

...I think the reason for this is that we make the best decisions when we are most emotionally detached and most objective...

These seem mutually exclusive or at least contradictory.

I think the coin toss is effective because by tossing the coin you have made the decision to finally decide. You either agree or disagree and go with it or against it.

I go with B, usually.