TSLA - How high will it go?

motion · 02-20-2014, 08:06 AM

I got in at $173 and promptly rode it down to $120. Its skyrocketing back up, but wow, is it ever volatile. I know its supposedly overpriced, but there's a lot of positive forecasting and buzz. I'm hoping for more. Can there be any doubt that its an excellent product at the right time?

sammyg2 · 02-20-2014, 09:26 AM

There's one born every minute and apparently they have money.

island911 · 02-20-2014, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by motion

I got in at $173 and promptly rode it down to $120. Its skyrocketing back up, but wow, is it ever volatile. I know its supposedly overpriced, but there's a lot of positive forecasting and buzz. I'm hoping for more. Can there be any doubt that its an excellent product at the right time?

So excellent that:
the product gets thousands of dollars in federal and State subsidies, per unit
they've sold MANY units,
they have smart dedicated engineers and management,
the latest and greatest tooling,
and they still struggle to show a profit.

Porsche makes lots of money on Cayennes and Panemeras. Teslas are even more of a luxury toy than either of those. So, the Q is, just how many more Tesla customers are out there? ...Can Tesla make more money off of a lower price-point car? ...or is that Q 'can they lose less off of a lower price-point car ... make it up in volume...

hardflex · 02-20-2014, 10:08 AM

I think you'll do well Motion. Don't listen to the naysayers. The Tesla has a Worldwide market unlike most American Cars.

In the Netherlands, Tesla Motors delivered last month even more Model S sedans than in November, thus increasing its market share from about 1% to 1.5%.

The total number of Model S sedans registered in December was 578 and for the whole year 1,194 (1,195 for the brand, so maybe there is one Roadster included?).

December was a month of great results for lots of fully electric cars in the Netherlands and just in case you wanted to know, the Model S ranked #20 overall on the automotive sales chart in the Netherlands.

Does the US Government even pay subsidies on cars sold overseas?

McLovin · 02-20-2014, 10:11 AM

My gut tells me it will go very high.

Whether that sticks for the long run is another question, I don't know what the long, long term future of that company is.

But I think for the next year or few years, it's going to go very high. I wouldn't be surprised to see $500+.

(And IMO it has nothing to do with the technology, how good or not good the product is, how well or not well the company is run, etc. It's just very well positioned for market exuberance and it will ride that for some time).

motion · 02-20-2014, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McLovin

(And IMO it has nothing to do with the technology, how good or not good the product is, how well or not well the company is run, etc. It's just very well positioned for market exuberance and it will ride that for some time).

Agreed. And, its an excellent product. Far superior to most gas-powered cars, IMHO.

enzo1 · 02-20-2014, 10:17 AM

Tesla's ZEV Credit Win Should Silence Some Of Their Critics

island911 · 02-20-2014, 10:53 AM

iirc, Norway gives massive tax credit to Tesla buyers (and other benefits)

So Tesla's very expensive cars are very dependent on Governments waiving taxes. How long will that last?

Cheap Nat. Gas is coming online in the US. ...And likely for no other reason than to be a 'naysayer' to electrics. ... because, being labeled a spiteful naysayer is why people actually look for cheap efficient transport . -stupid people.

Tilikum Turbo · Tilikum Turbo's Garage

Considering the massive tax-subsidy being forced on every tax-paying person in the country with each one is sold, I consider it a raw-deal.

In other words, for example, why should someone who has no interest or will never go to a pro-football game be forced to subsidize the building of a zillion dollar stadium? That financial burden is thrown onto the backs of people who actually WORK for a living.

Of course, if each of the states we live in actually had a concern about the well-being of its constituents, it would NOT let them let them spend their money on a negative-return investment known as the "State Lottery".

hardflex · 02-20-2014, 11:00 AM

If Tesla can spur manufacturers to make Natural Gas vehicles available I salute them for it. They're long overdue.

BTW, did you hear that Apple Inc is/was interested in acquiring Tesla?

island911 · 02-20-2014, 11:02 AM

Yep, TK Turbo, there is no bigger business than government. Tesla is smart to milk that cow. (because their product is not good enough to compete on a level playing field)

Of course, if a much better battery comes along soon, game changes. TESLA will be positioned perfectly. (the advantage of govt loans and subsidized product)

island911 · 02-20-2014, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardflex

If Tesla can spur manufacturers to make Natural Gas vehicles available I salute them for it. They're long overdue.

BTW, did you hear that Apple Inc is/was interested in acquiring Tesla?

Yeah, I heard about that. Tells you how much money Apple has floating around, looking for a home.

Natural Gas vehicles have been available for years. Usually fleet vehicles. (space req's)

Tilikum Turbo · Tilikum Turbo's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by motion

Agreed. And, its an excellent product. Far superior to most gas-powered cars, IMHO.

Apple also makes excellent products...but make no mistake. That blind loyalty and emotional attachment made people buy at $700/share only to see the share price get lopped off by around $200/share. That's a serious financial hit when the $10,000 investment tanks in the red instead of the black.

RWebb · RWebb's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by motion

Can there be any doubt that its an excellent product at the right time?

No doubt. But you were talking about the stock, not the car.

Last time I checked there was no real reason to buy the stock. Things may have changed in the last 6 months, but do some research. What is the P/E?

The next (less expensive) model release should be very interesting. OTOH, you have big guns competing - Chevy & BMW, and a variety of bets on fuel cell cars from various big guns too.

krichard · krichard's Garage

I think it's a fantastic product and an even better investment.

I bought 50 shares on the day it IPO'd and couldn't be happier.... Hope it keeps going up!

TSLA, Purchase Price: $816.50, Gain:$9,549.51, 1,006.28%, Current Value:$10,498.50

930LDR · 02-20-2014, 01:28 PM

BMW is going to put a hurt on them... the new offerings may not be direct competitors given the size / style differences but they have an entire Carbon Fiber plant up and running to make CF tubs... all it will take is for a 5-series sized offering at BMW's economies of scale and Telsa will be shaking in their boots. Some might say that their charging station network is a pretty good barrier to entry but how hard would it be for BMW to offer free charging across their massive retail fleet?

biosurfer1 · 02-20-2014, 04:35 PM

Even Musk doesn't think the stock price should be this high.

Elon Musk: Tesla's stock price is higher than we deserve - Oct. 25, 2013

motion · 02-20-2014, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krichard

I think it's a fantastic product and an even better investment.

I bought 50 shares on the day it IPO'd and couldn't be happier.... Hope it keeps going up!

TSLA, Purchase Price: $816.50, Gain:$9,549.51, 1,006.28%, Current Value:$10,498.50

Nice purchase!!!

330 · 02-20-2014, 05:11 PM

They might get bought out, also.

Sometimes big returns require big risks. Not if you manage a hedge fund or are an investment banker, of course.

Nickshu · Nickshu's Garage

I saw one this AM, guy did a lane change right in front of me with no turn signal. Wondered if he doesn't signal b/c he's afraid of the battery drain the turn signal will cause. LOL!