Greeks lining up at ATMs

[Hugh R]

In a previous life, I was involved in M&A work for some of the largest energy companies in the World, granted from an environmental liability side, not strictly financial; albeit environmental liability is first and foremost financial. Its called "due diligence". In my cursory review of Greece entering the EU, I see "shoddy" due diligence. Glaringly shoddy.

BTW, I was involved in Disney acquiring, Marvel, Lucas and Pixar, among others. Greece wouldn't have gotten past the 1st smell test.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Absolutely Hugh! When Goldman Sachs gives their seal of approval backed by their own full faith and credit...things get overlooked. And you don't know how far Goldman cooked the books to pass any due diligence. That's the point. Since Arthur Andersen, the goal isn't to not commit fraud, it's to commit it so no one will find out.

Who better to get Greece into the EU than GS?

No one.

I was in M&A too, being part of the team that handled Gillette's purchase of Parker Pen. A ton of due diligence.

Those days are gone when talking about the global finance at the highest level. When a financial institution like GS can make billions off of a transaction like getting Greece into the EU, knowing how politics can and will cloud the future, all bets are off.

These are smart people. Smart, greedy people.

[Hugh R]

Good Night Shaun, hope to buy you dinner in Boston sometime soon.

[Iciclehead]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

Easy, let them go down. Throwing good money after bad isn't much of a business strategy.

This ain't just business, it is geopolitical strategy, protecting the German interests against the inevitable French default.

Munchhausen's by proxy....

Dennis

[tabs]

Originally Posted by ficke

And the Greeks wanted in, it was a win. win, win for everybody until the bills came due.

They (EU/Greece/banks) might be able to kick the can a little farther down the road once again, but will of course have an even bigger debt/problem with a worse economy when the money runs out again in a few years.
Unfortunately Greece is the first of the Nations that will face this reality. The other Nations are watching how this plays out so they know what to do for their turn.

Just like drug addicts, rock bottom has to be met before a fix can really be implemented. Hopefully that will not be violent. just really uncomfortable.
"Free" money is the drug of economies, it will poison them till they shake the habit and stand on their own.

Now U know why I have been all doom and gloom all the time...

"Not be violent?" that is a joke isn't it?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Iciclehead

Looks like we are in end stage, let the real stupidity begin.

My impression is that the EU is determined to ignore the fundamental issues such as:

1. Greece is bankrupt, no amount of additional loans will fix the situation. First rule of holes...stop digging.

2. The Greeks are right, they need a portion of their debt to disappear, via whatever means you can imagine as they are insolvent and further austerity measures are just flogging the dead horse one more time.

3. The Euro without common political will is a fiction, and the unity of the disparate cultures into a single political union has all the chances of a drunk virgin in a brothel, it may be fun, but no chance of preserving the purity.

4. Open discussion is forbidden as there are too many agendas and too little will to take on the real elephant in the room....the EU as it stands is unstable, unworkable and is successful only in comparison to the states in conflict that have given us the last two world wars.

5. Sovereign debt continues to be an issue....the lending countries for the most part cannot afford to lose their stakes, neither can they politically sell their own increase in debt/exposure when their own balance sheets are overstretched.

....I doubt there is a ball between them....anywhere.....

Dennis

OHHH U mean like the Chinese holding American debt and dollars?

Ummmm and who else is holding US debt and Benjamins? Why EVERYBODY is holding one or the other!

And I hear the building creaking....and groaning under the strains...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

Absolutely Hugh! When Goldman Sachs gives their seal of approval backed by their own full faith and credit...things get overlooked. And you don't know how far Goldman cooked the books to pass any due diligence. That's the point. Since Arthur Andersen, the goal isn't to not commit fraud, it's to commit it so no one will find out.

Who better to get Greece into the EU than GS?

No one.

I was in M&A too, being part of the team that handled Gillette's purchase of Parker Pen. A ton of due diligence.

Those days are gone when talking about the global finance at the highest level. When a financial institution like GS can make billions off of a transaction like getting Greece into the EU, knowing how politics can and will cloud the future, all bets are off.

These are smart people. Smart, greedy people.

Hmmm Maybe from your perspective they are....But not from mine.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Iciclehead

Agreed, definitely there was significant motivation to have Greece join the EU at any cost. Reasoning was everything including geopolitically disadvantaging Russia, increasing the Brusselcrat's power, getting a new vassal state for Germany and France et al, lots of money going into Greek hands via the entry loans....endless reasoning.

Now, of course, the roosters are coming home to roost and there ain't no one here but us chickens.

Tspiras has committed the cardinal sin of NOT KNOWING HIS PLACE, alles in ordnung you know and now they are getting punitive.

So many sins of the past, so many misguided socialists spending other people's money, so little leadership and realpolitik that it would be humorous if it was not so terrible.

One report is that the French are ready to make a side funding deal bilaterally which really would put the German fox amongst those French chickens. Talk about EU unity!

If the Frogs and the Krauts split on this issue, it could get very ugly, very quickly.

And yes, I use the epithets with meaning, forcefulness and deliberately.

'effin political leaders, where are good solid brick walls and good firing squads when you really need them.

Dennis

I got Warrens attention one morning on CNBC using just about that same analogy. The question I asked Mr B was....."If Nicholas II Czar of all the Russias knew in 1914 that by 1918 that he would be dead, his family would be all dead and Czarist Russia would be no more, would he have gone to war with Austria and Germany?"

As I have been saying as a leadership loses credibility they begin to lose power. Then as a matter of NEW PUBLIC POLICY the old leadership is declared to be ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE and is summarily taken out and shot or hung. The French liked the Guillotine.

Also I have said, "That what the Germans couldn't do with military adventurism and conquest they have accomplished with a currency and a few loans." Now that the bills are coming due they have resurrected the STURMABTEILUNG to enforce their will.

Again as I have recently said the Greek solution is for the EU (Germany) to buy the Greeks out of the EU sending them on their merry way to poverty and want. Either that or keep sending them their welfare checks free and clear...

[tabs]

So who do you want to shaft today? The Borrower or the Lender?

It is ludicrous to think that this shell game of musical chairs can go on forever. The social stresses and strains are becoming immense. Are any of you so naive to think that from Ferguson to Baltimore to ISIS and Putin in the Ukraine that all of these flash points are not interrelated and linked to the borrow and spend regime that the world has become addicted to since the end of WW2? You see Russia, China, Iran and now ISIS trying to grab off as much geopolitical power as they can in the wake of the waning power of the USA and the West in general.

This is not a mere transitory problem as the bestest and brightest wanted to think after 2008. That the latest and greatest new round of Stimulus spending or QEing would put us all back on easy street. It is and has been wishful thinking that it could be so, and now the illusion that the old formulas that seemed to work so well are not only losing their luster but the reality is setting in that it can't be fixed as it is a moribund system.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Hugh R

Good Night Shaun, hope to buy you dinner in Boston sometime soon.

Looking forward to it Hugh!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Iciclehead

This ain't just business, it is geopolitical strategy, protecting the German interests against the inevitable French default.

Munchhausen's by proxy....

Dennis

There is certainly a trial balloon aspect to the entire thing, yes. That's the biggest reason I'd let Greece go.

[dlockhart]

the hashtag #ThisIsACoup was born in Barcelona. It quickly shot to the top of trending lists around the world, including Germany and Greece, sparking a social media backlash against Germany and its finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, over the draconian list of demands being forced on the Greek government in return for a third bailout.

#ThisIsACoup: how a hashtag born in Barcelona spread across globe | World news | The Guardian


Tsipras rolled, but will he be able to sell it?

Word is Yannis was willing to take it all the way, but did not have wide support, and the structures for a independent Greece are not in place, nor was any plan for the creation of those structures.

One may consider the can kicked for another day.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by dlockhart

One may consider the can kicked for another day.

There it is, the perfect, eloquent summation of Politics as we know it today.

[Holger]

Originally Posted by dlockhart

the hashtag #ThisIsACoup was born in Barcelona. It quickly shot to the top of trending lists around the world, including Germany and Greece, sparking a social media backlash against Germany and its finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, over the draconian list of demands being forced on the Greek government in return for a third bailout.

#ThisIsACoup: how a hashtag born in Barcelona spread across globe | World news | The Guardian

Yeah, and what lifespan do those *****ty social media hashtag-crap-things have?
Tomorrow it is another trending hashtag-crap topping all lists and being THAT thing.

I have never understood that anyone (media, readers) do care about those hypes.
Most of the hashtagers just tag without knowing what they are tagging. Social media in a box.

[tabs]

So it will be the STURMABTEILUNG.

[Iciclehead]

Ok, this just in.

Greece debt crisis: IMF attacks EU over bailout - BBC News

I am not sure if the IMF has gone nuts, whether this is an anti-Merkel thing or whether the IMF has, quite sensibly, said ENOUGH!

I mean, did they not ASK the IMF before the package got forced down Tspiras' anal orifice? Are these people on crack?

I think the market will have conniptions tomorrow.....and Greece probably will not pass the required laws and...the deal is toast.

Back to square Negative 350 billion...

Dennis

[legion]

Maybe we should just wipe out all of the debt "Fight Club" style?

[Rickysa]

Is this in the end what democracy, as opposed to socialism, will do?

Which is why, gladly, we are (were) a Republic.

[Iciclehead]

Debate really is how to deal with the sins of the past....and there were many and they were on both the lender and recipient side.

Here are Varoufakis' thoughts on the matter:

The Euro-Summit

I have to agree they read with a ring of truth, and in so many ways what is being played out in the extreme in Greece will play out in other countries, albeit without the "benefit" of an outside party.

Imagine when the US comes to this point, imagine the interest in its debt going up by 2% (roughly to $450 billion per year, up from current $222 billion), which is well within imaginable limits.

Then the creditors (about 1/3 of them being internal federal agencies) will demand their money to pay their bills, the remaining market held debt (including the 9% of the debt or $1.2 trillion that the Chinese hold) will either demand punitive interest rates or more likely demand payment when they are due....or.....sell at a discount to get whatever they can out of the deal.... aka US dollar not being reserve currency anymore

NO ONE has the pockets to deal with this, unlike in the case of Greece where the debt is a load for the EU but not unaffordable.

The US government (or any government in a similar position), will be stuck as the Greeks are with the choice of needing to allow the economy to grow (moderate taxation, loosen regulation) to create the wealth to pay the debt OR batten down the hatches, increase taxes, tighten regulation to extract more out of the existing economy. Middle grounds just achieve no real objective in this kind of thing.

The main issues to keep in mind are that the debt is always held by someone, ultimately an individual as either a recipient of social security, bond holder, or deposit holder in a bank and when the debt gets a haircut, however diffuse it be, some of THEIR money goes away, having been spent by someone else on "stuff".

Secondly, this madness about global warming, cutting emissions is exactly that...madness. Economies take energy, any plausible energy source will generate CO2 and waste, whilst minimizing energy consumption and waste are extremely good things, the crazy people who see humans as an infestation to be minimized and their undue influence on governments form a major block on any potential economic growth in the near to medium term.

Thirdly, it is time for us to realize that the earth is not one big happy family, sharing benefits and burdens with all joy. There are winners. There are losers. Your job is to make sure that your country is one of the winners, not to be your brother's keeper. Globalization to the degree envisioned by many is a shell game, driving all to the mean...which means that the higher standards of living will have to go down, with the lower going moderately upwards....until we are all at the level of the average Chinese.

This game is now in play, interested to watch....concerned about the outcomes.

Dennis

[RANDY P]

Originally Posted by Iciclehead

Debate really is how to deal with the sins of the past....and there were many and they were on both the lender and recipient side.

Here are Varoufakis' thoughts on the matter:

The Euro-Summit

I have to agree they read with a ring of truth, and in so many ways what is being played out in the extreme in Greece will play out in other countries, albeit without the "benefit" of an outside party.

Imagine when the US comes to this point, imagine the interest in its debt going up by 2% (roughly to $450 billion per year, up from current $222 billion), which is well within imaginable limits.

Then the creditors (about 1/3 of them being internal federal agencies) will demand their money to pay their bills, the remaining market held debt (including the 9% of the debt or $1.2 trillion that the Chinese hold) will either demand punitive interest rates or more likely demand payment when they are due....or.....sell at a discount to get whatever they can out of the deal.... aka US dollar not being reserve currency anymore

NO ONE has the pockets to deal with this, unlike in the case of Greece where the debt is a load for the EU but not unaffordable.

The US government (or any government in a similar position), will be stuck as the Greeks are with the choice of needing to allow the economy to grow (moderate taxation, loosen regulation) to create the wealth to pay the debt OR batten down the hatches, increase taxes, tighten regulation to extract more out of the existing economy. Middle grounds just achieve no real objective in this kind of thing.

The main issues to keep in mind are that the debt is always held by someone, ultimately an individual as either a recipient of social security, bond holder, or deposit holder in a bank and when the debt gets a haircut, however diffuse it be, some of THEIR money goes away, having been spent by someone else on "stuff".

Secondly, this madness about global warming, cutting emissions is exactly that...madness. Economies take energy, any plausible energy source will generate CO2 and waste, whilst minimizing energy consumption and waste are extremely good things, the crazy people who see humans as an infestation to be minimized and their undue influence on governments form a major block on any potential economic growth in the near to medium term.

Thirdly, it is time for us to realize that the earth is not one big happy family, sharing benefits and burdens with all joy. There are winners. There are losers. Your job is to make sure that your country is one of the winners, not to be your brother's keeper. Globalization to the degree envisioned by many is a shell game, driving all to the mean...which means that the higher standards of living will have to go down, with the lower going down....until we are all at the level of the average Chinese.

This game is now in play, interested to watch....concerned about the outcomes.

Dennis

Nailed it- exactly what it is. I for one, have no desire to share the struggle with the average Chinese citizen.

rjp