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-   -   Just how low can oil prices go ... (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/899067-just-how-low-can-oil-prices-go.html)

enzo1 01-18-2016 05:35 PM
No joke! Gas is 47 cents per gallon in one Michigan town | Fox17

WPOZZZ 01-18-2016 06:48 PM
Maybe airfares will go down. lol

BRPORSCHE 01-18-2016 06:53 PM
I am beyond screwed.

(Work for a global oilfield service company with the color red)

Norm K 01-18-2016 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 8962971)
... - shale oil has done this to the market...

-Wayne
Only in that the Saudis have fired a major shot across the bow of U.S. domestic producers. Fortunately for those in the domestic industry even Saudi Arabia can't sustain these low prices indefinitely. In order to meet their societal costs (if you think we have an entitlement society take a look at the oil-rich Middle East countries) the Saudis need oil to be at about $80 per barrel. Given that it was estimated their war chest would last about 3 years at $40/bbl, simple math tells you it won't last as long at $30, $20 or less and that they'll either raise prices or face the sort of civil unrest they've never had to deal with before.

Of course the House of Saud could simply decide to take what they already have and split the country.

Shaun @ Tru6 01-18-2016 07:23 PM
Everyone should be buying UPS and FedEx stock. Their fuel surcharges haven't changed, profits will have to be going way up. Nice to be a duopoly.

Steve Carlton 01-18-2016 07:59 PM
Good timing for my new Camaro engine!

http://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam...h-1280x551.jpg

Arizona_928 01-18-2016 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRPORSCHE (Post 8963205)
I am beyond screwed.

(Work for a global oilfield service company with the color red)
Can't be worse then what "The Administration" has done to coal.

Instrument 41 01-18-2016 10:19 PM
I predict about $24. But if it goes lower the economy is going to crap. Big banks didn't get to involved with loaning out money but a lot of the smaller and mid sized did, as well as some investment groups. Hope you like that sub $1 dollar gas. Cause when the defaults/bankruptcy's begin it will effect everything. I'm doing everything I can to get out of this business and get back to the downstream and process market. Folks here in Louisiana like the cheap gas, but when your states budget has a 2 billion shortfall, guess where that revenue is coming from??? How's that cheap gas now?

sc_rufctr 01-18-2016 11:32 PM
A quote from Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum. (Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Emir of Dubai)

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" (Mid 1980s)

tabs 01-19-2016 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 8962971)
Several months ago, a lot of people thought oil was cheap. So they bought a ton of it and stored it in tankers and storage facilities. Well, they thought wrong, and now they're stuck with it. I.E. Inventories are at an all-time high and oil storage facilities have been turning away people for months. Here's an article from March:
Oil Storage Squeeze May Lead to Another Price Crash - Bloomberg Business

Another one:
China is hoarding cheap oil in a fleet of supertankers - Jun. 4, 2015

When all of these people start to unload (as it may be happening right now), it will create a downward spiral that will push oil below the "true cost". What is the "true cost?" I believe that it's going to be the long-term cost of production, currently estimated to be about $40 a barrel, I think for shale oil. It will probably rebound to that level and stick there for an extended period of time. The game has changed - shale oil has done this to the market...

-Wayne
You have to store over production some place.

tabs 01-19-2016 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Norm K (Post 8963230)
Only in that the Saudis have fired a major shot across the bow of U.S. domestic producers. Fortunately for those in the domestic industry even Saudi Arabia can't sustain these low prices indefinitely. In order to meet their societal costs (if you think we have an entitlement society take a look at the oil-rich Middle East countries) the Saudis need oil to be at about $80 per barrel. Given that it was estimated their war chest would last about 3 years at $40/bbl, simple math tells you it won't last as long at $30, $20 or less and that they'll either raise prices or face the sort of civil unrest they've never had to deal with before.

Of course the House of Saud could simply decide to take what they already have and split the country.
This is a simpletons pov.

Porsche-O-Phile 01-19-2016 03:11 AM
Not really - the only thing I'd add is that the Sauds really can't run anywhere: where would they go? Crawford Ranch perhaps, lol!

Norm K 01-19-2016 05:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tabs (Post 8963364)
This is a simpletons pov.

I figured you'd be in the audience ...

tabs 01-19-2016 07:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Norm K (Post 8963509)
I figured you'd be in the audience ...
You missed the not so obvious investments in western corporations as a rational for their defacto stimulus program.


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