Two Articles on the Economy and Possible Future

[tabs]

Originally Posted by speeder

There have been kooks like Tabs predicting the end since cavemen were riding dinosaurs.
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Cavemen never rode dinosaurs, they rode Woolly Mammoths.

[speeder]

My bad.

[tabs]

Now I can go home.

[dlockhart]

social and economic collapse is not a singular event, it is a PROCESS

How Do You Know When Your Society Is In The Midst Of Collapse? | Zero Hedge

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[NoRush993/951]

The bond market says it all. 30 year under 2.8 and tens under 2 and going lower.
It's going to be a slow grind for years as the leverage unwinds. Most people can't comprehend what happens to the money that was created from the underlying debt when it goes unpaid. It's musical chairs for physical dollars. Everyone needs them but they are getting harder to keep. Save up for the coming repo sales of all sorts. The best the world has to offer will be going on markdown over the coming years.

[pavulon]

As long as we have everyone here, how long until nice, air-cooled, G50 911's come back to the $20-30K range?? Only asking because I'd like to finally get one and enjoy it a bit before I die (this is Pelican after all!).

[tabs]

Originally Posted by dlockhart

social and economic collapse is not a singular event, it is a PROCESS

How Do You Know When Your Society Is In The Midst Of Collapse? | Zero Hedge

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Mr dlock isn't it interesting that he author of the linked piece uses the same terminology and concepts as I have been using for years? I have sat and talked to you face to face quite some time ago and outlined this very thing...using the same terminology.

I do believe Mr Dlock that you are providing supporting evidence to bolster my case.

However as it stands like it or not, believe it or not ... I AM THE AUTHOR OF THE NEW CONVENTIONAL WISDOM.


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-politics-religion/898328-perfect-storm-forming-horizon-2.html


Originally Posted by tabs in late 2014.


"It is all a huge sucking sound. The FED's action have been to have a 2% Inflation rate. This they have not been able to accomplish with monetary policy as has been a normative result in the past. One would think that with such a large printing regime as they have implemented that Inflation would be rampant? However that overall does not seem to be the case. There has been mixed messages that have muddied the waters. Food prices have seem to increase, energy prices as well until demand dropped and the decision was made to continue with large production which has halved energy prices. Yet the price of finished goods like Television sets have declined as demand is declining.

RE prices have stabilized and increased to a state of equilibrium as the FED has bought massive quantities of mortgage backed securities that has allowed standing inventory of foreclosed homes to remain off market. The Stock Market has risen at a 45* angle with NO MAJOR corrections since the FED implemented QE3 in September 2012. The FED has simply guaranteed that they will not allow the bottom of the economy to drop out.

So here we stand, we have a lot of smoke and mirrors which creates an Alice in Wonderland effect. It seems that momentum of the fix is stalling out. As with a flight to quality strong USD is going to act against US exports being sold to nations who are going into recession. This will have a negative impact on the US economy. One thinks that the picture is ever darkening as all the usual fixes have not put Humpty Dumpty together again, that they are fresh out of new ideas and that is going to create and air of despair and then desperation as the reality of it all sinks in. Then comes 2017 when the SS and Medicare payments explode according to the CBO creating a deficit of 1T USD PER YEAR for the next 20 to 30 years as all those accounts payable unfunded liabilities come due and become interest bearing debt. The question becomes how many more Trillions of debt can the US Treasury sell before the buyers knees buckle?"

[NoRush993/951]

+1 for the post above. The game continues as long as they can sell the debt to a real buyer. The Fed buying treasury paper and holding it in a closet until it rolls off won't work forever. Some country will eventually introduce a new currency that is backed by hard assets and the game changes. The Japs went to negative rates last night to debase their currency. It's a race to devalue the fastest and try to increase velocity of the money supply. History shows the people will hoard even more.

[tabs]

Economists try and read the numbers like they would tea leaves to discern the future trajectory of the economy.

My advantage is that I don't base my crystal ball gazing on the numbers but the organic knowledge of the mood of the animal spirits. It is a developed art like skill rather than objective metric based science.