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diesel trucks getting a free pass. that bugs me.
diesel particulate is a nasty toxin, yes? |
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The fact of the matter is, Musk has a responsibility to maximize shareholder value. This means shopping around for the best location to build factories, and building products that can be profitably sold. Take it up with lawmakers (on both sides of the aisle) if you have a problem with incentivizing job creating factories or environmentally friendly(er) vehicles. |
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If you do then you are helping pay for tesla cars. That $300 mil that tesla gets from So Cal refineries in exchange for phony BS "carbon credits?" It gets passed directly to the consumer. On top of that, last January the price went up another 10 cents per gallon to pay for the scam carbon credits program. LOL, it is coming out of your pockets, but keep denying. nothing worse that getting conned and not even realizing it. Musk may be an even better con man than I thought. |
As an aside, I was visiting my parents on the coast, and dad has this small restroom in the garage of the beach house. He has a bunch of old books in there for reading. I came across a fantastic book about the early automobiles. People were truly hardy folks tooling around in those things, especially in the cold. There was one memorable picture of a tough looking dude who used his car to go hunting, and to bring his animal carcasses back.
People today don't care for adventure or risk. They want to buy the world a Coke, and pretend that they can wish away all the bad parts of life. That is the fairytale thinking around Musk. He's going to give you magic, and you can zip around in your bubble electric car. Oh, and tell me the one again about how you're saving money (clap clap). |
Oh and BTW, the amount of carbon credits that the gubmint gives tesla goes up every year by about 10%.
Next year 110%, the next year 120% and so on. Quote:
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Analysis: Tesla may have made over $100 million off the CARB enabled battery swap ZEV credit scheme
Anthony Watts / March 12, 2014 Guest essay by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador In the past I’ve provided estimates of the money Tesla has made off this mysterious feature enabled by credits authorized by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). These estimates were very simplistic: basically I multiplied their ZEV revenue by 0.35 or a similar number. Now, I have something more precise with references to back it up. Key data points: The 85 kWh version of the Tesla Model S, called simply “S85” from here on, was reclassified from a Type III zero-emissions vehicle to a Type V on October 12th 2012. The previous official document, dated June 15, showed it was a Type III vehicle. This reclassification increased the number of ZEV credits Tesla got per car from 4 to 7. Of course, there is the possibility that the car had already been earning these extra credits days or weeks before October 12, but there is no way to know. (I will call the original 4 “standard credits”, while the additional 1-3 will be “extra credits”). The 60kWh model, or “S60”, was reclassified on December 20. No sales took place in 2012, so for this version all units produced benefited from the battery swap. Therefore, Tesla started gaining ZEV credits thanks to the battery swap in 2012Q4. Tesla’s car deliveries and much more info can be seen here. I got the numbers from their letters to shareholders: 2012Q4, 2013Q1, 2013Q2, 2013Q3 and 2013Q4. ZEV credit revenue is available in the same Excel as their car sales. There are some small doubts about their 2012 revenue. This is a more in-depth look at their financials. Tesla’s sales in California can be seen in the same document. The data comes from Green Car Reports, which in turn got it from the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA). I’ve been unable to obtain their numbers for 2012. As for its sales mix, Tesla has been vague. Although it’s well-known that the S85 sells more than the S60, I cannot find a definitive statement from them about the issue. There are 12 states with a ZEV mandate, but California dwarfs them all (1.7 million car sales last year). The difference is even more lopsided if we talk exclusively about Tesla sales, as in the period studied the state made up about half of all deliveries in the US. And California’s ZEV program is far more advanced than the others, having begun in 2006. From 2012Q4 to 2013Q3, Tesla sold 1,311.52 NMOG credits. For some reason CARB reports transfers in these terms, however, at the bottom of the page you can see that the denominator to convert these credits to ZEV is 0.035. Therefore 1,311.52 / 0.035 = 37,742. In the same link too, you can see that at the end of 2013Q3 Tesla still had 276.080 NMOG credits, or 7,888 ZEV credits. Only 250 Model S were sold in 2012Q3, and basically zero before that. Previously they had obtained credits through the Roadster, but only about 2,000 were sold worldwide and Tesla had already generated revenue from those in 2008-2011. Key assumptions: For simplicity purposes, I assume all S85s sold in California since and including Q4 benefited from the ZEV reclassification. That is, they moved from 4 to 7 ZEV credits. I’m including 12 days’ worth of sales in 2012Q4, but they were still ramping up production then so it must be less than 10% of the quarter’s sales. In any case it does not affect the overall math. In 2012Q4, 1,500 Model S were sold in the state. 90% of Tesla ZEV revenue comes from California. In 2012Q4, ZEV revenue was $35 million. We know that for all of 2012 it was $40.5 million and it was concentrated in Q4 (they didn’t even mention it in the other quarters). We also know that the $40.5 million figure includes undisclosed but small revenue from GHG credits. Tesla had 0 ZEV credits as of October 1st, 2012. Very small room for mistake here, as they could have a tiny quantity left over from the Roadster or the few Model S deliveries earlier in 2012. If you think some assumptions are unrealistic or whatever, fine. The Excel document is free for anybody to download and tinker with. So how much is the battery swap worth? There are two questions here: how many of those extra credits they have sold, and how many they have earned but not sold. One can envision any number of scenarios, but as you’ll see, no matter how you square the numbers Tesla stands to make a lot of money off the battery swap. · Assuming a 60% S85 mix, Tesla earned 51,029 ZEV credits from 2012Q4 to 2013Q3. Of these, 32,148 were standard and 18,881 were extra. Since Tesla transferred 37,742 credits to other manufacturers in the same period, the conclusion is that they sold their entire standard allotment, and then an extra 5,594 credits. So the extra ones made up 14.8% of their sales. With ZEV revenue in California at $148.3 million for the period, this would mean the company got $22 million it wouldn’t have gotten without the battery swap. · Under the same 60% mix, Tesla would still have 13,287 credits in its balance at the end of 2013Q3, all of them extra. (CARB’s website says they had 7,888, which suggests they transferred credits to other states). When adding those they earned in 2013Q4, the number rises to 24,404, of which 17,772 were extra. · So in this period they sold 37,742 credits for $148.3 million, which gives a per-credit price of $3,929. If Tesla just manages to get the same price it has gotten so far, their remaining extra credits will be worth $69.8 million. Yeah. More than $90 million in total. And that’s only the ones they got before January 1st, 2014. With about 1,800 Model S sales in California, the value of their remaining credits grows by about $15 million – every quarter. It happens that the fine for not meeting ZEV requirements is $5,000 per credit (see slide 93), so that’s about the maximum other carmakers are willing to pay for these things. Our $3,929 figure is therefore in the right ballpark, and it shows Tesla’s revenue from California ZEV credits couldn’t have been much lower than the figure I offered ($148.3 million). In the Excel I’ve uploaded, I assumed a 60% mix. But you can just change the numbers to see what happens. Keep in mind that sales mix does not affect the number of standard credits they earn, because both the S60 and the S85 get 4 of those: it only affects the number of extra credits. Even so, I offered an absurdly high estimate of Tesla’s California sales for 2012Q4 (2,400, which were in fact their global sales), so as to increase their standard credits. Assuming 80% of Model S sales were S85s, the results would be: · 35,748 standard credits earned in 2012Q4-2013Q3, plus 24,196 extra ones · So if they sold 37,742 credits, that means they sold their entire standard batch and 1,994 extra ones. In turn, that means 5.3% of their ZEV revenue was thanks to the battery swap. · That’s “only” $7.9 million. But if they sold so few extra credits… · …the result is they had 22,204 in balance at the end of 2013Q3. Remember CARB’s website says they had 7,888, so either they transferred massive amounts to other states or there’s something else I’m missing. · Add in their numbers for 2013Q4 and they have 34,038 in the bank, of which 26,866 were extra. · And which, at a selling price of $3,929, would be worth $105.6 million. Yikes. “But they won’t be able to sell so many credits! The market will get saturated!” Really? Here’s a reminder of how the ZEV mandate works. It requires every major manufacturer to sell a given percentage of zero-emission vehicles, and by 2025 it will reach 15% Even if the state as a whole passes that threshold (EV sales were 1% of the market last year), many manufacturers no doubt will fall below and will need to buy credits. And if history is any guide, the program will not be withdrawn in 2025. EV advocates will say the technology still hasn’t reached critical mass, whatever that means. It’s true the market is oversupplied right now. But starting in January 2018, all credits will be allotted according to range alone, not refueling time – this will effectively close the battery swap loophole. More importantly, the number of credits per car will be drastically reduced, as 3 will be the maximum – no matter if your electric car goes 300 or 500 miles. See slide 66 of the previous document. Get this: right now, Tesla gets about 6.5 ZEV credits every time it sells a car. The market cannot buy all those credits so they keep thousands in the bank and transfer thousands more to states other than California. Then comes 2018, the ZEV requirements have gotten much stricter, and every car gets 3 credits at most. Meaning there will be no manufacturer with an excess of credits it can sell. And there will probably be many with a deficit. And Tesla will have a huge balance of credits from the good old battery swap days. Tesla is playing the long game. Oh, and the company may have the opportunity to stockpile even more credits before the supply gets tight, because Type V ZEVs will get 9 credits instead of 7 in the 2015-2017 period. It’s unclear whether regulators will allow this, as CARB has stated it intends to exclude battery swap from the fast-refueling category at the end of this year; that would bring Tesla back to 4 credits per car. Other carmakers are going to sell hydrogen vehicles in that period which also qualify for the 9 credits because of their range and refueling time, and they’re probably protesting the privileged treatment Tesla gets. But if the loophole isn’t closed, the company will be getting an average of about 8 credits per vehicle: twice what they would get without the swap. |
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Tesla’s First-Ever Profit Came Thanks To Selling Zero Emission Credits To Competitors, But It Insists It’s Not Dependent On Bartering CO2 Offsets |
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Elon Musk's growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies - LA Times |
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Tesla's 10-Q Reveals ZEV Credits Had A Major Impact In The Quarter
Chuck Jones , CONTRIBUTOR A lot can be learned from reading through a company’s 10-Q and 10-K filings and Tesla is no exception. You can tease out revenue, expense and geographic details when going through the various sections. ZEV credits came back into play for a quarter While Tesla’s overall plans do not rely on ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) credits to be a contributor to gross margin they did contribute $76.1 million to revenue and gross margin in the September quarter due to one-time contracts with various OEMs. This was substantially above the $10 million in the June quarter and $0 the previous two quarters and Tesla expects them to be lower in the future but did not give any specific numbers in the 10-Q. Since the ZEV credits were 8.2% of the company’s total revenue they had a major impact to the quarter’s results. When you remove the $76.1 million from Tesla’s total revenue of $932 million and non-GAAP gross margin dollars of $274 million the resulting gross margin percentage is 23.1% vs. the reported non-GAAP gross margin of 29.4%. When you take the next step and remove the Powertrain components & related sales from Tesla’s total revenue and adjust again for the ZEV credits the resulting gross margin falls further to 21.9%. This is much lower than the June quarter’s 27.1% so it appears that the manufacturing changes had a large negative impact on the September quarter’s margins. It may not be a coincidence that there were almost no ZEV credits for the three prior quarters and such a large amount in the September quarter. Source: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images China accounted for almost one-quarter of revenue Tesla changed the way it reports its geographical revenue making it a bit tougher to determine which geographies were responsible for how much revenue. The company only provided revenue for the nine months for the US, Norway and China which while they account for 74% of total revenue they did not give North American (Canada is typically 3% of revenue so not a big deal to calculate) or Europe’s result. |
^ Thats why accountants are worth the gold.
Doesn't matter what physics or science say's is best for humanity. You can make all the arguments + / - on any fuel source. News flash........... perpetual motion machine research and studied by the US Govt. LOL |
The detractors here seem to have an issue with the subsidizing of alternative energy, rather than Musk himself, if I am understanding correctly. Musk is simply taking advantage of the loopholes currently in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I believe he will be viewed as one of the great innovators of this century. Like Apple has done with various categories, he is dominating and innovating in his categories on a level never before seen. I view him as pure genius.
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There may also be some jealousy, on my part...SmileWavy |
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