Stocks at record high. Anyone getting out?
 

When the Dow crests 18,000, I tend to get a little nervous that we're approaching correction territory. Just last week (Brexit) it was doom and gloom with some here predicting 401k holacaust. We're sitting around 18.3 today without much movement.

I transferred some stock holdings into the money market today. A modest %, but makes me feel like I'm doing something.

Anyone else seeking refuge as a result of the QE inflated high?

I'm certainly taking some profits and reallocating my portfolio.

You are not alone...

Mystery Of Surging Stocks Solved—-It’s The Central Banks, Stupid! | David Stockman's Contra Corner

I'm confident that I can't second guess what's going to happen with the markets. I'm leaving mine where it is. If the market goes down, it'll eventually go back up. Would I love to sell right before it goes down and then buy back at the bottom? Sure, but since I don't know what those points are, I just leave it alone.

I've read over and over again, that people miss a good portion of the gain that they could have by getting in and out. Granted, I think that's usually the opposite of what you're doing, usually selling when the market goes down, and then waiting until it's on it's way back up to get back in.

All I can say is diversify, spread it out.

As I get older, I still have a few aggressive stocks but most are now dividend paying machines. Market goes up it pays x amount, market goes down it pays x amount. Have my share of AU and AG and real estate plus cash for when a good deal goes by. it's boring as heck but I sleep pretty good.

I never pay face value for big ticket items, if you wouldn't horse trade, I am not interested. Ex; I want to trade my 2013 Audi A4, it has one month left on lease, found a 2016 with 4K miles and the dealer was caste in stone on price and I walked because it was 500.00 too much. The dealer whinned that he could have sold the car 3 times over during the time it took, well three weeks later, it's still on his lot, dumba**.

Life goes on.

Correct. For the average Joe there is no money in trying to be a 'market timer'. Buy and hold long term.

For Cindy & I, age is a factor...we no longer have the time to sit out a protracted bear market...and we do believe it's coming. If a 25 year old would listen, I'd advise him or her to begin a ROTH IRA right now and feed it monthly...hopefully in a no load broad based index fund. This because a 25 year old has the time to ride out downturns.

Depends on how much of your portfolio you intend to sell off each year.

You don't want to liquidate everything at 65 and then live to be 85....

The way to diversify and buy low/sell high is to allocate your portfolio into classes. You identify what percentage of your portfolio should be in each class. Periodically you rebalance by selling assets in the class that is now disproportionately high and put the money into the lagging asset class until your allocation is back in line. When the Dow and S&P 500 are high like this it makes sense to sell some of those assets and buy something in an index or industry that's been battered, maybe an energy index or an international fund.

Boglehead technique 101..

+1. I've seen this exact principle coming from some really smart money managers. Like Gatotom says, "It's boring but I sleep good."


Most of my investment money is in lifetime buy-and-hold stuff, but I also a much smaller chunk that I use to pick some stocks. Generally, I invest on a 3-5 year timeline, but if something that I expect to hold for 5 years does unusually well after 3 months, my general strategy doesn't preclude me selling it earlier than planned. I had a couple of issues over the last couple of weeks that had done so, and I put in some sell orders, but I'm not moving a lot of my account around.

actually, I am waiting for that good correction so I can buy WM @51.00 , JNJ @100.00 and PG @76.00

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hDIbYXM2jK0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

World money flows are all U.S. directed. Simply stay long the largest cap U.S. stocks. It's never been easier to pick an asset class as it's the only viable liquid place to park large amounts of funds on the planet. The majority of the world is in deflation. We are inflating. Stocks will go higher and the shorts will fuel it higher. Don't listen to main stream media. It's a scam.

That's what I have done. Pretty much all of my money is in low cost index funds or index tracking ETFs.

If the account is tax deferred, then I have 10% Domestic REIT and 10% International REIT with the other 80% in those equity index funds. If the account is taxable, then I skip the REITs.

For the equities portion
50% Intl / 50% Dom
50% large cap / 50% small cap
50% growth / 50% value

So tax deferred will have 10 separate investments, and taxable accounts will have 8.

Growth stocks are more stable, but also make less than Value stocks. The same goes for large cap vs small cap.

If you diversify

large cap growth
large cap value
small cap growth
small cap value

you get more return, and because of the diversification, have the same or less volatility.

Then take a similar stance with US & Intl, and you have protected yourself again.

:D Chuckle!

I am a boring buy and hold guy. I still have 5-10 years before I expect to need an income from market investments but if a dividend stock is selling really cheap, I might buy some over time. I like not-worrying about timing the market and just gradually move into classes that generate dividend income as my needs and risk tolerance evolves.

U folks just seem to think everything is hunky dory and life will go on as usual forever....all I can do is shake my head and think.... what chuckle heads.

Some surprise PWD about the Central Banks pushing liquidity into the markets..they have been doing it for the past 8 years..

Why do you think Equities stabilized and ran up to where they is today, ditto that in RE...You think it was all because of your good looks or intelligence? Without the FED intervention you would all be eating out of garbage cans right now. Do you really think you have 5 or 10 years before a blow out...

Figure it out...

Continual Central Bank intervention with liquidity to keep economies stabilized but deteriorating. The economic deterioration is putting pressure on political and social conventions which are now becoming highly unstable. We are seeing the collapse of Global economies of scale. End of fking story

- Oh, Henny Penny, the sky is falling and I am going to the lion to tell him about it.

- How do you know it? - asks Henny Penny.

- It hit me on the head, so I know it must be so, - says Chicken Little.

So Tabs, if I am listening, where should my money go now?

Things that have use, or things that have value after recovery; if I were to take his long winded answer and make it short, that would be it.

Things like shoe's, clothes, spoons, chairs & tables, etc.

???. Can we add fresh produce to that list?

Tabs is either on holidays, on ban island or withdrawing himself. Awfully quiet from the Tabs department....:eek:

+1 on the post. Unfortunately the money printing and debasement will continue as there is no other viable option to keep the masses fed. It will continue until the debt goes bad and faith is lost in repayment. Until then, stocks will inflate up along with most everything else here in the U.S. A loaf of bread might be $50, but they will keep these stocks up at all costs to insure the Ponzi lives on.... Government income and pensions depend on it.....:eek:

He has no answers, just endless pontification. In the end he will be as destitute as the rest of us.

lol!!

Tabby, it's not like Cindy & I just discovered the central banks intervention...I just posted the link to inform others.

I am not tabs

but I still think long oil futures is the place to be
not 6 months or next year
but real long as you can get say 10 years out

But with more pairs of shoes.

That line forms right behind me....

The minute GW came on the Tube in 08 was the minute I knew the ground under our feet had changed. The powers in charge thought, "Ohh this can be fixed, let us just apply the standard fiscal and monetary measures and we will get back to normal." As time has moved on and each of those measures that they took have not worked. The situation continues to deteriorate as debt continues to climb and monetary policy is still continuing to ameliorate the situation with liquidity. Again it is a race to see which implodes first US debt obligations or the USD. I have been saying this for years now.

What nobody is willing to admit is that there is a direct correlation between political and civil unrest and how bad and or dire the economic situation is. While the Central Banks policies have provided economic stability they have not been able to ameliorate the causes of the economic malaise. As such the stresses being built up in the economy show up politically and socially in the form of instability and unrest.

I've no need for the cash otherwise, so not selling. Also in a regular brokerage account, I will be taxed on gains.

I would only sell if I see another opportunity that needs cash and will have a higher return, or of course, money to spend.

Your on the Titanic, the ship is going down and there are no lifeboats, as the Ships owner did not put them on the ship because the ship was supposed to be unsinkable.

You are delusional as you make the presumption that the money in your account has value. It has all become an Alice In Wonderland illusion to keep you pacified for another day. Did you ever hear the term "smoke and mirrors." :)

No but I'm kicking myself black and blue for not buying Nintendo last week when this stupid Pokemon crap took off. Fk me...:(

I am willing to take any cash you have off of your hands and I'll even give you $.10 on the dollar even though it has no value.

That's funny. Tabs has been telling us that our money is worthless for many years now, mine still works fine. :)

There is no fixing stupid. So if you think everything is just swell keep on grazing like the Eloi. I am not going to try and convince you one way or the other.

So, if someone was not stupid and took your advice, where would they put their $$ right now? Come on, make a bold recommendation. We'll check back occasionally and see how you did. :)

As far as I know my money still buys stuff and experiences. So it has value. Now, if we're talking about SHTF Zombie Apocalypse type of thing, then yeah, all that goes down the drain. Hopefully I have enough ammo. :)