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-   -   How Do You Make Decisions In An Uncertain Environment? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/933403-how-do-you-make-decisions-uncertain-environment.html)

creaturecat 10-25-2016 07:23 AM

factorial analysis is the discipline that applies re: a set of variables and potential outcomes, no?

tabs 10-25-2016 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cashflyer (Post 9332642)
I just shoot randomly into the crowd.
Fate makes the decision for me.

Kill em all and let God sort em out?

tabs 10-25-2016 07:43 AM

All I do is go to the buffet, casino, and shopping...I let Mother make all my decisions, it is just easier that way.

Esel Mann 10-25-2016 07:44 AM

Remember: it usually takes three weeks or so AFTER you have left to find the problems, but only takes two weeks to give your notice.....;)

Crowbob 10-25-2016 07:45 AM

I curl up into a little ball behind the couch and wait for it all to go away.

tabs 10-25-2016 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crowbob (Post 9332852)
I curl up into a little ball behind the couch and wait for it all to go away.

Are u sure u are not a politician?

Shaun @ Tru6 10-25-2016 08:26 AM

Make

Achieve
Preserve
Avoid

Lists

Prioritize

Analyze

Conclude

Always write things down to get them out of your head. Takes perceptions and makes them real allowing for more room in your head to analyze hard info in front of you, now dreams inside you.

Touque 10-25-2016 10:30 AM

I'm surprised no one has said to use the Magic 8 Ball...

pwd72s 10-25-2016 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1990C4S (Post 9332618)
http://magic8ball.com/

^ post # 18

I usually make a shot decision based on where I think I can leave the cue ball for the next shot. As in: "Hmmmm, off the rail or straight in?" How hard? Follow, stop, or draw? Speed needed?" After these calculation I usually hook myself...or miss the shot entirely.

Life is kind of like that, eh?

Crowbob 10-25-2016 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 9332860)
Are u sure u are not a politician?

Actually no, O Great Merchant of All Things Good and Right,

The people are my concern. If that makes me a politician, so be it.

Crowbob 10-25-2016 10:58 AM

Back in the day, I found myself on a roll pool-wise. For weeks I couldn't miss a shot it felt like. Combination banks across the whole table. **** like that. Over and over again.

Then it was gone.

Just as suddenly, the game of pool returned to a challenge that I decided was insurmountable and thus quit.

On the spot.

Crowbob 10-25-2016 11:15 AM

With a good solid rack I could consistently draw the cue ball on the break beyond mid table and have with a greater than 70% probability that I would have sunk one, too.

I'd take extra special care when racking for my adversary. Sure enough, when he racked for me it was a solid rack.

Crowbob 10-25-2016 11:21 AM

Chicks and pool tables go together.

When I found that out, I lost all scruples I thought I once had.

Crowbob 10-25-2016 11:23 AM

Nothing beats a chick with a good solid rack.



The end.

gsxrken 10-25-2016 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by legion (Post 9332354)
A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.

"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." Gen. George Patton

Seahawk 10-25-2016 11:52 AM

It depends:

In my company in engineering we develop requirements, criteria then weights and measure against predicted results. I just met with a small engine company this morning that will now make the engine for my next drone. We compared criteria, experience and inked a deal in about 2 hours.

The engine was my biggest risk...not now.

Management and company stuff? My grandfather's brother, who was a senior VP for Matson Navigation Company, a very successful man who came up from the deck plates on Matson ships, had a phrase he shared with his brother: "In business you have to either Shyte, Stand or Stampede: Figuring out which one is the hard part."

Figure out what works for you. I don't gamble so I am a numbers guy. I have a set of criteria that works for me.

Cajundaddy 10-25-2016 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey (Post 9332631)
Sometimes the better choice is not the one with the best upside but the one with the least downside.

Yes. If possible outcomes of your choice include going to prison or being eaten by wolves, I tend to rule out those choices rather quickly.

pwd72s 10-25-2016 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crowbob (Post 9333168)
With a good solid rack I could consistently draw the cue ball on the break beyond mid table and have with a greater than 70% probability that I would have sunk one, too.

I'd take extra special care when racking for my adversary. Sure enough, when he racked for me it was a solid rack.

So...you broke just like this, right? ;) not difficult to understand...difficult to do consistently. How to break is a decision this guy makes well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAEnKCL3stU

ckelly78z 10-25-2016 02:30 PM

This sounds like my quandry of whether to roll entire 401K into something that might survive the coming chit storm from the election results, (or lack of trustworthy results) or let it ride and hope it rebounds after buying low.


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