How Do You Make Decisions In An Uncertain Environment?
 

I want to start a discussion about how do you make decisions when there is substantial uncertainty.

I'm not talking about how do you decide on the answer to a math problem or how do you decide what size joist to use for a given dead load; those answers can be answered fairly precisely, so I would assume most of us would do the required calculations or find someone who can.

I'm also not talking about how do you decide if Velasquez was a better painter than Rubens or if Beck had better chops than Page; those are basically subjective questions that can be debated forever, with no particular need to ever make a decision, or consequences for that matter.

The stuff I'm asking about is: there is a decision that has to be made, there is a deadline to make it, if the decision is right/wrong then the outcome will probably be desirable/undesirable, you can possibly get more information with more time but you probably won't ever have all the information, and there is no book or equation or guideline that tells you how to decide.

How do you make the decision? Do you list the specific information you insist on having before deciding, do you set a date on which you'll decide with whatever information you then have, do you write lists of pros and cons and find some semi-quantitative way to extract a decision, do you think and mull until the decision somehow comes to you, do you consult others and be guided by a consensus or the weight of opinion, etc?

Discuss, please.

Will have to ponder the greater questions there before my decision, but, Beck over Page - any day or decade of the week...

A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.

That is how business decisions are made. We never have ALL the info and often times the hard data is pretty thin. If you weigh the choices and it comes out 60/40, the best answer is pretty obvious. If you weigh the choices and it looks more like a coin toss, it probably is. Both choices have pluses and minuses but the end result comes out pretty evenly if you stay the course and follow through with your plan. Pick one, commit to your decision, and carry it through to the end.

Sometimes we make our best choice and it leads us down the wrong path or a dead end. Such is life. We cannot win every time and if we only win 6/10 we look like champions. As long as we learn something from our mistakes it wasn't wasted effort, just an investment in our education and experience.


This is what an effective CEO does every day.

I meant Jeff Beck by the way - not the more recent Beck.

My 2 cents. What Cajundaddy said, along with luck.

You win some.
You lose some.
Some get rained out.

Lay out the data you have, highlight the data you wish you had and why you don't have it, determine if the decision is reversible, then decide... and remember that choosing no decision/no action is a decision in and of itself. Bias for action above all.

Easy... I just ask the Pelican Parts Brain Trust! :D

Scenario planning. Read Arie de Geus, learn and understand the concept that you are not predicting the future, you are merely predicting the future outcome of current decisions.

I had the great privilege of learning from the man, it has made my career as an executive immeasurably easier to understand the previous statement.

That and realizing that the aphorism Ready, Aim, Fire is not appropriate for the human condition, the correct aphorism is Ready, Aim, Fire....Steer!

Dennis

Interesting topic.

One of my tools for dealing with decision-making in the midst of uncertainty is to dive deep into the Punnet Square of Cognition:

1. What do I know that I know about the situation? (Knowledge)

2. What do I know that I don't know? (Missing knowledge that I have a chance of obtaining)

3. What do I not know that I know? (Intangible knowledge or instinct)

4. What do I not know that I don't know? And how do I figure this out?

It's a relatively easy thing to list out 1 and 2. Pay attention to 3 and go with your gut. #4 is what always gets me in these situations. When trying to make a decision, I'll get through 1-3 as thoroughly as I can and attempt to minimize 4.

Yep....so I just trust my gut and wing it :)

A choice is:
a free selection, after, but not based upon, reason or consideration.

You decide based on facts. Your choice is based on something more, a gut feeling, whatever. Somehow at some point you have to resolve feelings of doubt, and make a choice, simply because you choose. It then becomes what you have chosen. Why did you choose it ? because this is what I choose. Often I find that if I cannot make a choice, I need to let the other parts of my mind work on it after all the facts have been gathered. I understand that things sometimes come to me without any conscious effort on my part, if I let them.

I think the most important thing you need to do in life is to stop looking at the possibility of failure, and look at where your intention would like you to be. You are on the racetrack, and you start to slide. There is a telephone pole out at the edge of the corner and beyond. If you look at the telephone pole, you are going to hit it. SO YOU LOOK AT WHERE YOU WANT TO GO, you look down the track towards the end of the corner. Once you stop focusing on what you want to avoid, and start focusing on where you want to go, your mind, body, and all of your being will work in concert to take you where you want to go. You will get there.

Focus your intention on what you want, don't think about what you don't want. Don't even think about thinking about it. Think about your intention, think about what you want, and make a choice while looking down the road at where you want to go. After the choice is made, Keep looking down the road. Trust yourself, and don't look back. Keep telling yourself what you want to accomplish, and where you want to go.

If its a decision that might depend on emotions, I'll flip a coin, the result of the coin will end in disappointment or satisfaction, and easily reveals how I really feel over the decision.

I personally prefer to deal more with decisions that the impact is closer, within a few days. I try to never rise to a management position of making decisions over more than six people unless I absolutely have to step into that position to ensure things get done. Because of that, I tend to focus on how to make the decisions of others work out, rather than making those decisions. I look for the potential problems in a decision that has been made, and start looking for solutions to make that decision work.

On a race track, I visualize the unexpected into a virtual certainty based on past experience. When I see that a barrier has been hit releasing water, I play in my mind my past experience of the grip level to expect, and correspond my angle and speed to rapidly created scenario. Its hard to describe, but it works.

Good luck

I write it down and put it somewhere prominent... And if time allows I sleep on it.

I've done this for decades for every house, investment, car or major life decision etc. So far so good.
When pressed for time I've also made really good decisions using my "gut" only.

Really important stuff? Often I wait & wait until I have to make the decision. TAKE YOUR TIME on the big stuff.

The worse thing you can do is let someone push you into a hasty decision.
My Ex tried to push me during our divorce and to her dismay I took my time with every decision.
... Honestly everything thing I did worked out for the best for me and our children.

One of my bosses told me, "Make a decision with the information you have. If you're right, you can move on. If you're wrong then fix it and move on. "

Failing that I sometimes rely upon the "E triple M" system..
You know :










Eeny meeny miney moe.

Best
Les

I usually just wing it.

Sometimes the better choice is not the one with the best upside but the one with the least downside.

I just shoot randomly into the crowd.
Fate makes the decision for me.

factorial analysis is the discipline that applies re: a set of variables and potential outcomes, no?

Kill em all and let God sort em out?

All I do is go to the buffet, casino, and shopping...I let Mother make all my decisions, it is just easier that way.

Remember: it usually takes three weeks or so AFTER you have left to find the problems, but only takes two weeks to give your notice.....;)

I curl up into a little ball behind the couch and wait for it all to go away.

Are u sure u are not a politician?

Make

Achieve
Preserve
Avoid

Lists

Prioritize

Analyze

Conclude

Always write things down to get them out of your head. Takes perceptions and makes them real allowing for more room in your head to analyze hard info in front of you, now dreams inside you.

I'm surprised no one has said to use the Magic 8 Ball...

^ post # 18

I usually make a shot decision based on where I think I can leave the cue ball for the next shot. As in: "Hmmmm, off the rail or straight in?" How hard? Follow, stop, or draw? Speed needed?" After these calculation I usually hook myself...or miss the shot entirely.

Life is kind of like that, eh?

Actually no, O Great Merchant of All Things Good and Right,

The people are my concern. If that makes me a politician, so be it.

Back in the day, I found myself on a roll pool-wise. For weeks I couldn't miss a shot it felt like. Combination banks across the whole table. **** like that. Over and over again.

Then it was gone.

Just as suddenly, the game of pool returned to a challenge that I decided was insurmountable and thus quit.

On the spot.

With a good solid rack I could consistently draw the cue ball on the break beyond mid table and have with a greater than 70% probability that I would have sunk one, too.

I'd take extra special care when racking for my adversary. Sure enough, when he racked for me it was a solid rack.

Chicks and pool tables go together.

When I found that out, I lost all scruples I thought I once had.

Nothing beats a chick with a good solid rack.



The end.

"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." Gen. George Patton

It depends:

In my company in engineering we develop requirements, criteria then weights and measure against predicted results. I just met with a small engine company this morning that will now make the engine for my next drone. We compared criteria, experience and inked a deal in about 2 hours.

The engine was my biggest risk...not now.

Management and company stuff? My grandfather's brother, who was a senior VP for Matson Navigation Company, a very successful man who came up from the deck plates on Matson ships, had a phrase he shared with his brother: "In business you have to either Shyte, Stand or Stampede: Figuring out which one is the hard part."

Figure out what works for you. I don't gamble so I am a numbers guy. I have a set of criteria that works for me.

Yes. If possible outcomes of your choice include going to prison or being eaten by wolves, I tend to rule out those choices rather quickly.

So...you broke just like this, right? ;) not difficult to understand...difficult to do consistently. How to break is a decision this guy makes well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAEnKCL3stU

This sounds like my quandry of whether to roll entire 401K into something that might survive the coming chit storm from the election results, (or lack of trustworthy results) or let it ride and hope it rebounds after buying low.