22,000 today? Where's the top!

[Chocaholic]

So, when will the bubble pop....or is it a bubble? Moved a few bucks to cash yesterday only because this kind of market growth makes me nervous. Too much. Too soon, no?

Thoughts?

[widebody911]

Every time I've been tempted to get out, it moves up some more...

[sammyg2]

It's all about interest rates. As long as they are effectively near zero, the market is the best place to put $$$$.

When interest rates eventually climb that will most likely change.

[KFC911]

I trimmed back a while ago....not necessarily a bubble, but mighty expensive (P/E ratios higher than I can ever recall)....time for a 10% correction or more....

Debt ceiling approaching (surely they won't pull that nonsense again),
Tsunammi,
Brexit,
NK,
Trump farts...

Who knows, but it's due

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by widebody911

Every time I've been tempted to get out, it moves up some more...

I never get out...just rebalance somewhat...

[Craig T]

Originally Posted by widebody911

Every time I've been tempted to get out, it moves up some more...

Same here. Pulled 50% out a few months ago and put it right back after earning reports starting coming in above estimates.

Earnings are still coming in strong, the VIX is low and stable, oil and energy are still cheap, unemployment near all time lows. The only thing lagging is wages. The PE of the S&P 500 is a little above historic averages, but I don't see any reason to be bearish at this point.

Besides, Where the hell else are we gonna put it? Put $100K in a money market account and at the end of the year you can use the interest to buy a Starbuck caramel frap and a blueberry muffin.

[Chocaholic]

What about the NK factor? It seems something is going to pop to neutralize Un sooner or later.

[Gogar]

[KFC911]

^^^^ Real estate only goes up, up, up

But it's been one hell of a run...juiced and all

But a few have missed the "ride", and now due to Trump's election think it's time to invest....
dangerous imo. The P/E ratios actually supported the graph...until the past few months. Mighty pricey it is....YMMV.

[Chocaholic]

Yes, over 115 years, the markets have gone up. But, most of us don't have that long. A two year tumble could be devastating to those who are planning to retire soon, and there are plenty of them in the chart above. At some point it's logical to become more conservative. I've got 7 or 8 years before retirement and a lot can happen in that time. All a matter of perspective.

If I was 30, yep, all in. Now, not so much.

[recycled sixtie]

Originally Posted by KC911

I never get out...just rebalance somewhat...

LIKE. I think this is smart advice if you can handle the wild rides.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Yes, over 115 years, the markets have gone up. But, most of us don't have that long. A two year tumble could be devastating to those who are planning to retire soon. At some point it's logical to become more conservative. I've got 7 or 8 years before retirement and a lot can happen in that time. All a matter of perspective.

If I was 30, yep, all in. Now, not so much.

I "retired" at 48, back in '08 when my dept. was outsourced...by choice, rather than continue with whom I considered the Motormeister of my field. I was "all in", and stayed "all in" through it all....wasn't fun . Part of my periodic rebalancing is what you allude too...oldfartitis

Don't need anything but slow and steady, but still have about 45% of my investment portfolio in equities, and will probably never reduce that percentage again. Multifaceted approach here....everyone's situation is different....YMMV.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

LIKE. I think this is smart advice if you can handle the wild rides.

I can "ride" with the best of 'em

[recycled sixtie]

Originally Posted by KC911

I can "ride" with the best of 'em

Eeehaa!

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

Eeehaa!

Comes out Yehaw!....with a thick southern accent when I say it

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Yes, over 115 years, the markets have gone up. But, most of us don't have that long. A two year tumble could be devastating to those who are planning to retire soon, and there are plenty of them in the chart above. At some point it's logical to become more conservative. I've got 7 or 8 years before retirement and a lot can happen in that time. All a matter of perspective.

If I was 30, yep, all in. Now, not so much.

Bingo! Already retired...also, "not so much". Yes, it seems few are watching those P/E ratios...

Anyway, there does come a time when preservation is more important than assuming risk.

[tabs]

KC, PW and Sammy are at least seasoned Investors. The rest well... are Yayhooo's. Old unkel Litvak before they swung the trap on him said, "Yah never give a sucker an even break nor wise up a chump." OK CHUMPS I am stupid.

If I have said it once I have said it 1000 times, THE FIX IS IN>>>> The FED with it's activist monetary policy has guaranteed the economy which in essence is guaranteeing the over and the under on the Equity market. Four factors to consider.

1. No place else to invest money to make an ROI...Bonds? ya like 2.2% on a 10 year..hah

2. Corporate profits have to go somewhere, because there is NO DEMAND for product and no need for more factory's without demand. So it is M&A and stock buy back programs which shortens the supply of equities.

3. Pension Funds structures have been built on the 8% return model to remain solvent...

4. All that money that has been printed has to go somewhere.


I have been calling the Equity markets correctly since 09, most notably with my call in September of 2012 when the SP was at 1390...I said the SP 500 would go to 2250....after that watch out UNLESS it takes an extended amount of that to get to that level. That was when I started saying the fix was in with QE3. That was about the time the data started to become manipulated with a wink and a nod to the savvy. The FED needs cover for their policy actions.

So far if you look at the 5 year SP 500 chart it is been rising at about a 25% degree angle...a slow but steady accretion rate. It is currently at 2470. That regime will continue so long as the FED has credibility and or something big does not happen.

Sammy has it partly right, SO LONG AS THE FED HAS AN ACTIVIST MONETARY POLICY THE EQUITY MARKETS WILL BE IN AN UPWARD MODE. Interest rates are going to remain LOW practically forever if the FED has anything to say about it because there is so much debt that has to be serviced. Any spike in Interest rates means the debt becomes unserviceable.

The FED Is effectively in a box. Print more money to buy debt and the USD becomes shaky, Debt has to be sold and there comes a saturation point where there are no more buyers except for the FED. US Governmental dysfunction is putting the stake through the heart of not only America but the Global economy. What has the US government been able to fix in the past 8 years that would ameliorate the economic malaise? The answer is NOT A FKING THING, it is a 680B USD deficit and rising..it all accumulates ya know... You are in effect dead men walking. You don't even fkin know it because you all are too busy arguing among yourselves....

I have said this over and over again with out effect on this Boards members, which makes their intelligence and veracity suspect. I have little to no respect for you folks nor for practically anybody else. So stupid is the word that applies to you all in my estimation. Wear the dunce cap with pride you have earned it. This is fact and not supposition, so your end is not going to be a happy one. .

I have had feedback on stuff that I wrote from a former FED chairman, and have moved another FED President among others to stutter for 5 minutes after reading one of my emails. What I say is accurate,* I have been watching the markets continuously since 1990, have learned at the knee of a Money manager who is a friend and or acquaintance of a several ex FED chairman and at times has been sought out to give advice to the RNC.


*To say it simply one has to work at being accurate. For one has to continuously weigh out information for it's veracity. One has to factor in what ones own bias's are before one speaks. Absolutely NONE OF YOU DO THAT. Which is what makes you stupid and more over unable to fix a fkin thing. Is that succinct enough for ya all. U boyz are doin a great job of fking yourselves.

[tabs]

Question who are the 6 most powerful people in the world? It is a simple answer really.

[tabs]

It is a simple equation...

Without the ability to be self reflective and enumerate your own culpability in the matter you are doomed to be Lemmings headed for the cliff. That is my message to the collective aka as the "animal spirits" It is the verdict of history.

What the powers that be have done since 08 is to do the same old thing over and over again expecting a different result each time. What used to seemingly work before does not work anymore because the paradigm has shifted. You are in a different world now. The Global economy is deflating, as it has run out of paying customers whose credit limits have been reached. Governments are NOW running huge deficits and accumulating huge debt in order to prop up demand, so the lights will remain on for another day. Sooner or later that regime will have reached it's extremis and will collapse.

So it isn't the Equity market that is in "Bubble" mode it is the US GOVERNMENT and all the other developed nation governments debt loads that is the Bubble."

Honestly the above was the first thing I said in 09...that the govt has subsumed private debt and is creating the "MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES." It is so large that you can not even see it. You feel it's effects in the increasing instability and irrationality of Global situation. Of which D Trump is just a symptom and not a cause.* For Trump was a known before he was elected.

*Trump is a distraction, while the larger issues grow more serious. You argue about the headache while ignoring the cause of the headache which is a growing brain tumor. You are being consumed with the symptoms which is myopic indeed. Get it?

[gatotom]

O' great One Tabs, where then do you see the fall??

Always liked what Will Rodgers once said" the return of principle takes precedence over the return on principle"