Live Tracking - Tiangong 1
 

So there was a very lengthy explanation with numerous reasons why they can't (won't) make any prediction of when it will re-enter the atmosphere. I am not a rocket scientist but I imagine there is a window of time estimate (not earlier than... / not later than...). The total avoidance of any estimate when we are less than 48 hours out lends me to wonder if there is a concern of coming down on a highly populated area.

I think the issue is liability. I remember when Skylab burned up as well...

What goes up eventually will come down, depending on the definition of down...

I just checked the tracker and it's now below 100 miles in altitude.

EDIT: Oops... just checked again and 30 minutes later, it's at 104.55... should've known it would be an elliptical orbit.

Latest reentry forecast provided by ESA’s Space Debris Office, ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany.

Update 11:00 CET, 31 March 2018

The space debris team at ESA have adapted their reentry forecast over the last 24 hr to take into consideration the conditions of low solar activity. New data received overnight gave further confirmation that the forecast window is moving to later on 1 April.

The team now are forecasting a window centred around 23:25 UTC on 1 April (01:25 CEST 2 April), and running from the afternoon of 1 April to the early morning on 2 April. This remains highly variable.

One of the main reasons why it is so difficult to make an accurate reentry predictions, even if just a few days in advance of an expected reentry, materialised during Thursday this week.

A high-speed stream of particles from the Sun, which was expected to reach Earth and influence our planet’s geomagnetic field, did, in fact, not have any effect, and calmer space weather around Earth and its atmosphere is now expected in the coming days.

This means that the density of the upper atmosphere, through which Tiangong-1 is moving, did not increase as predicted (which would have dragged the spacecraft down sooner) and hence the ESA Space Debris Office has adjusted the predicted decay rate.

This implies that the new (and still uncertain) reentry window has shifted to late in the day on 1 April.

Tiangong-1 reentry updates | Rocket Science

We're all domed.

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Same reason the plane flying from NY to Paris is a big arc that goes over Newfoundland and Greenland as the 'shortest route' when drawn on a flat mercator map.
If you put a string on a globe from NY to Paris, it's the shortest route and goes over NFL and Greenland...

and Alaska looks twice as big as it actually is..

I always thought Alaska was sooooo yuuuuuge.... until last summer when I rode across most of it. Its not nearly as large as I imagined. Those maps can be very, very deceiving.

Well this narrows it down some. ;)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1522605678.png

I just got our garden cleaned out for spring. If that thing falls in there I am going to be really mad.

wait, the world is flat, isn't it?

Dropping fast now.
I was going to get up at 5:30 this morning to see if I could see it, but it would have been fairly low in the sky and I probably would have had to drive somewhere for a clear view of the sky. My brother lives in Hawai'i, and it flew right over the islands about an hour ago. But it was hazy there so he didn't see anything.

It would be ironic if it fell on China but it looks like that is unlikely.

I was thinking N. Korea.

I think it might've come down... it seems to have hit the servers hosting the tracking site... they're out cold.

https://www.n2yo.com/?s=37820&live=1

^
Prolly just overloaded from traffic.

^^
Or..someone made a mistake and used a tractor beam instead of a tracking beam

Time for the Peaceniks to get the 'WELCOME!' and 'WE LOVE YOU, ALIENS!' signs out.

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The station is like a skipping stone on water. When it dips to the atmosphere that will grab it, it will tumble and tumble on each hit of "hard" atmosphere. It will eventually dig in and then it will sink. Hard to tell how many skips and where the final dig will be.