Porsche is history, Segway is here (Ginger)

[Zendalar]

Ok, you might know what I am talking about, or you don't. But the innovation is here and I wan't to test that thing someday. Its a handy thing, but the inventor also has a Porsche

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,186660,00.html

More info and pictures at www.segway.com

[cegerer]

I can see the personal injury attorneys all huddled in their boardrooms this morning, mapping out plans for new TV commercials. Have you been runover by a Segway at the mall? Call Lee free at 1-800-I-REALLY-HURT.

[JDaniel]

Hey, where's the part that inserts itself into your rectum?

[adamnitti]

oops..

[prattrc]

They say this thing will replace the car they way the car replaced the horse and buggy. Hmmm.

11 miles without a charge? 12 mph max?

I live about five miles from where I work. It takes me about 15 mintues to go each way in traffic. This thing won't be allowed on sidewalks so I'll have to merge with traffic going 12 mph??? I'll get killed. And what happens when it rains? Or worse when it snows?

As far as polution goes, isn't the entire idea of an electric vehicle missing the big picture? Where does the electricity in the wall come from? Electrical plants. Plants that burn oil or gas or coal, or nuclear plants that stand to create an even worse environmental disaster than global warming, one that will last 1000 times as long.

Am I missing something?

Good luck selling this thing to Americans. We love our freedom, our wide open spaces (more than 11 miles), and our gas guzzling tanks, I mean SUVs. Until you can offer us something that does not force us to change any of those three things, you will not succeed here.

[Clark Griswald]

This thing is obviously not intended to replace the car, it is for short distance. This fits somewhere between walking and driving (remember the bicycle? I think that has been a reasonably successful product catagory, even in the US).

Prattrc, yes you are missing something. This device would require a trivial amount of energy compared with a car. The resulting pollution and natural resource consumption (while displaced to an electric power plant) would be far less.

I for one am watching this closely. The potential is huge. It may not replace my walking shoes, but I expect it will have some massive applications.

[Jim T]

It an interesting thing, I've been following the story for about 8 months now.

I don't think its going to live up to the hype of the inventor and his buddies (Bezos from Amazon and Steve Jobs). They say it is as significant an invention as the car, and that cities will be built around it, etc.

What could you REALLY use it for? It could only be used during good weather. There is no payload capacity. It is expensive.

If it were invented 100 years ago, it would have changed the world, because infrastructures would have been built around it.

But now? I doubt "cities will be built around it." With no infrastructure, it seems like it will be relegated to being a cool toy, or a limited use biz tool (would be nice for a mailman!)

But who knows. With enough backing and marketing, maybe it will have a huge impact. One thing for sure, it is an AMAZING device. Saw it on TV this morning. It uses very little energy, it really quiet, and basically is like a fast "mobile walkway" like you see at the airport. The platform remains amazingly stable, Charlie Gibson was riding it no hands, with no problems.

[jkcrewsn]

He drives a Porsche? Well, at 3 grand a pop, he should at least be able to sell enough to buy a new P-car before the novelty wears off.

[marc weintraub]

I saw them demonstrated today in New York at Bryant Park. They look very clunky, but they seemed to work at $3k plus a pop.. all it will do is make the few that own them fatter and lazier than they already are. Supposedly, the post office is interested in them, but they don't appear to hold too much. Should be fun to watch.

These may end up being our next Olympic sport... synchronized stupidity on carts.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

When it comes down to $1k I'll buy one, if only to make irrigating my pasture easier (running back and forth at 2am is not my idea of fun). This would also be just the thing to get from building to building when I'm at work--especially since I always end up late for meetings!

This will sell best in "wealthy" metropolises like Tokyo and Hong Kong, where people live AND work. Most of the traffic in US cities is from people commuting into and out of them.

And I can definitely see the use of having one or two around for track days or autocrosses!

[nostatic]

Originally posted by Clark Griswald

Prattrc, yes you are missing something. This device would require a trivial amount of energy compared with a car. The resulting pollution and natural resource consumption (while displaced to an electric power plant) would be far less.

In addition, you are talking about controlling emissions on a few central sources (power plants) as opposed to millions of smaller portable ones (cars). Much more efficient, and an easier task (hard to mounts scrubber units on a vehicle).

It would be interesting to see the number on what the average car trip distance is. If in fact most people use their cars for 5 mile trips or so, then this could be a big deal. As for me, my commute is beyond the range of this contraption, and I don't see how my son could ride with me when I pick him up from school. On the other hand, he has no problem riding in the stoker position on our tandem bike.

As usual, the bicycle (the most efficient form of transportation) gets ignored. Seems to me the segway elevates couch potatoism to a new level. And I can't wait to see how many face plants result from system failure. The more control you reliquish to the machine....

[Jack Olsen]

That thing's a dud.

Whatever the gee-whiz factor, how much walking does the average person do in the average day, especially in a situation where they'd be able to tote one of those along to make it easier? You take it to lunch -- and where do you put it? You get back to the office -- and where do you put it? You take it on the elevator? Really?

Maybe I'm missing something, like the part where everybody's got an extra three grand in their checking accounts (which they're willing to spend... to make the day's walking easier?), or the part where our cities are suddenly rebuilt around this wonderful new technology. I can walk up a curb or up a set of stairs without giving it a second thought. I can navigate (rain-slicked) sloped concrete, revolving doors, and escalators pretty easily, too. I'm going to carry this thing over and around all of that to make navigating the dry, uneventful, level parts easier? Really?

It'd be handy at the track, in the pits, if you bring it along on the trailer. And I guess Mail people could use it. But what else?

I'm not an expert on this sort of thing, certainly. But I can't help but compare the cost-versus-benefit of this contraption to a pair of roller skates... and I come up with a new technology that I don't feel compelled to walk any distance to invest in.

In my opinion: a dud.

[Early_S_Man]

I agree, Jack! The 'IT' toy ISN'T going to be the next 'scooter' runaway sales fad!

[Don Wohlfarth]

I think some of you may be selling this thing a little short.
What about the first automoble, the telephone, b/w tv, color tv, computers, calculators, memory chips, on and on...
Kamen and his investors spent a reported $100 million to develope this scooter. That was the price of the first one.
I can't see anyone paying $3K for one, but the price will come down.
The US will end up being the testing ground but this is probably not its intended market. NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE! Bring the price down to the cost of a big tv, refrigerator, bicycle.
Basic transportation at an affordable price.

[marc weintraub]

In all honesty, after having seen them in action, I can't imagine them being used in a New York type setting. They don't have the speed to be on the street and they are too bulky, in all of the iterations that I saw, to make them useful in a society where people walk and congest the sidewalks.

There has been no mention of insurance for something of this nature and based on the size, these can do some damage to both pedestrians and automobiles.

There is also something of a learning curve since going backwards means your bodyweight has to be shifted in the direction that you want to travel and the handlebars are twisted to go right or left. In normal travel devices (scooters, skates, rollerblades, etc.) we are used to maintaining forward momentum and our bodies lean forward, unless we are stopping or slowing down.

In all, this would be a wonderful device if they had a seat with side bars for the elderly. They can go up and down stairs, do grocery shopping if there is a basket and not be afraid of going too fast. Still, I have no idea how they will be used in New York City, but that is neither here nor there.

[kstar]

FWIW, half of all car trips (900 million trips a day total!) in the US are 5 miles or less and just carry the driver, according to the EPA.

See this page for some data:
http://www.segway.com.edgesuite.net/consumer/vision/environment.html

The folks at Segway just need to tap a very small percentage of that market to be wildly successful. The initial target market of mail/parcel services, law enforcement and other governmental agencies and corporations will probably result in tremendous sales, IMO.

I worked for some time with urban planners of new communites in California. While the Segway was not considered in these designs, the goal of these new communities was to get people to interact more and use a car less for for trips to the store, post office and such. These communities had homes with front porches and wide sidewalks which were seperate from the streets. While it is possible that Segway could directly cause the creation of more of these types of communities, it should help to encourage them, IMO.

Roller Blades, scooters and bikes are great for short trips, but still millions of Americans choose to take the car. I think this is the market Segway wants.

Thank goodness that a few pioneers decided to build internal combustion engines in cars and sell them to the public and masses for personal transportation and the hauling of heavy goods. I am sure the development of the car was greeted by much controversy and skepticism from the folks who thought the horse and buggy was just fine.

Regarding the Segway technologically, it is quite remarkable. Its critical electronic systems have multiple redundancies. It is an engineering tour de force! Segway has been over-engineered for obvious reasons. The beauty of the Segway, IMO, is how a very complex balancing and locomotion system has been so elegantly hidden behind the most basic human control interface.

If you don't know about Dean Kamen and his inventions, especially the "iBot", it is certainly worth your time to do a few searches on the Net and learn more.

If Segway were public, I would be buying the stock today. I also plan on buying one of these when the consumer model appears late next year . . . if I can keep myself from bellying-up and buying one of the industrial models sooner!

Check out the site: http://www.segway.com

Better to be skeptical with the full benefit of all the available knowledge than to express skepticism based on cursory opinions - just my humble opinion.

Best to you all!

Kurt

[Jim T]

Originally posted by JackOlsen
That thing's a dud.

Whatever the gee-whiz factor, how much walking does the average person do in the average day, especially in a situation where they'd be able to tote one of those along to make it easier? You take it to lunch -- and where do you put it? You get back to the office -- and where do you put it? You take it on the elevator? Really?

Maybe I'm missing something, like the part where everybody's got an extra three grand in their checking accounts (which they're willing to spend... to make the day's walking easier?), or the part where our cities are suddenly rebuilt around this wonderful new technology. I can walk up a curb or up a set of stairs without giving it a second thought. I can navigate (rain-slicked) sloped concrete, revolving doors, and escalators pretty easily, too. I'm going to carry this thing over and around all of that to make navigating the dry, uneventful, level parts easier? Really?

It'd be handy at the track, in the pits, if you bring it along on the trailer. And I guess Mail people could use it. But what else?

I'm not an expert on this sort of thing, certainly. But I can't help but compare the cost-versus-benefit of this contraption to a pair of roller skates... and I come up with a new technology that I don't feel compelled to walk any distance to invest in.

In my opinion: a dud.

I think it all depends on price, marketing and infrastructure. But those seem to be significant hurdles, particularly infrastructure. One could imagine if that device were around AND someone was planning a city from scratch, one could make accomodations for the device (subway like tunnels, little roads and ramps, etc) and it would probably work out. But that seems like a fantasy. I don't think any cities are going to be rebuilt around the scooter.

So, I don't think it will live up to the incredible hype, either. It is in many ways revolutionary, but that alone doesn't mean it will be a widespread success or change the way that we all live (i.e. "more impact than the invention of the automobile, cities will be built around it," etc.). But its backed by some pretty smart and insightful people, so I would not sell it short, either.

But, the tech is pretty cool! I'd love to try one out. And I wonder if the tech could be used for other, maybe larger devices.

[J-RAD]

And I wonder if the tech could be used for other, maybe larger devices.

That's its only hope IMO. It's a pointless product. A much better exercise in marketing than actual product. Pretty bold statements from the inventor. He's got balls, I'll give him that. For a product to be successful it must meet a demand in the marketplace that is not currently being met. What "demand" is this really meeting? And does the cost outweigh the benefit? Segway's promo video actual says that "it'll replace your feet"! What??? It's an incredibly expensive gimmicky gadget for incredibly lazy people. Let's see, our legs and feet are provided to us at no additional cost. They are very agile and perform quite well. Instead, however, I will spend $3K to get something may be slightly faster but many times more cumbersome and less agile??? I don't think so. Think about how pissed people get at the elderly in their Larks, let alone this thing. Could you imagine riding this thing down the sidewalk during "rush hour" in Manhatten, Chicago, or any other major city? How about Toyko, space is a luxury as it is. I'll tell you what, if some lazy bastard clipped my heels with one of those things he'd find out just how unstable they can be! It makes a much better toy...but at $3K a pop it's hardly a toy. This will be the biggest flop since Enron (I know it hasn't been that long but you get the point! )!

No thanks, I'll walk! (a phrase that I think Segway will hear often)

[Kurt B]

Olsen's on the money here. A dud--esp in regards to the price.
Look, the world will not be changed by an electric scooter with gyroscopes enabling it to remain upright, I assume, without moving.
It's not really new--it's just a mod on a tired scheme. Low speed, wheel driven transportation in 2 dimensions.

The world will be changed when someone invents transportation in 3 dimensions that is personal and safe. Hop on your witch's broomstick and head somewhere for 3k. Flies for 12 miles, up to 30 feet etc. Sign me up now.

But this is a lot of hype for a completely bozo idea. It weighs 60 lbs. I have an electric scooter that weighs less than that. Still, if the powers that be can convince enough Induhviduals (adams) they need one, the backers might get lucky.

[Jack Olsen]

Yeah, don't get me wrong: I think the technology is pretty cool. I hope it gets plugged into some products with real-world utility. But it's not a 'Killer App,' by a long shot. Los Angeles has learned that the time when transportation technology can re-shape an urban center's infrastructure is long past -- witness our pathetic attempts to fit the square peg of mass transportation into the round hole of an already-completed city.

I think transportation improvements are going to be substantial in the next few decades, but they'll have to be sold to the same consumers who have always made it clear that they don't like un-enclosed transportation devices (what good is a motorcycle, scooter or Segway in the rain or the winter?), and they'll have to find a way to utilize the roads and sidewalks that we've already got. Electric vehicles, hybrid cars, fuel-cell cars, bicycles and sneakers -- I think all of these are part of the solution. But tearing out roads or buildings on a nation-wide level for the sake of a faster way to walk is just not going to happen.

Now, I'll bet you could sell these things to golf courses, amusement parks and some of those mega-sized shopping malls. But it's not really a world-changing consumer product, at this point -- no matter what the comany's PR firm is telling us.