Randy,
I have said here before, but perhaps not on this thread... Everything for sale in the USA looks like a tremendous bargain if you are paid in British pounds or Euros right now.
There are many hundreds of highly compensated or wealthy folks in that area that see well cared for US Collections for sale at bargain-basemant prices when converted to their currencies.
Very few of these early Porsches survive in California-condition in The EU, most were driven hard and put away wet, so to speak...
These numbers (1600 or so, never legally imported to USA, so only a few hundreds here) are so small that there will be plenty of demand to drive prices.
Early S's are next, my prediction is 12-24 months from now.

Exactly. The last time the classic car market overheated, it was a sluggish stock market and falling rates that made cars look good. If its difficult to achieve a 8% or so yield, people start to think, geez, why not invest in something tangible that I can enjoy?

Look at E Jags. They were mid-60k cars at the last peak, and fell way below resto cost when stocks became attractive. Lots of 25-30k cars that people had ridiculous money into. Should've been a contrarian and bought them then, the pendulum is now swinging the other way.

The real estate boom has helped as well, maybe people are taking money out of equity to buy exotics, guess you might as well if you can do it at 6-7%.

Too true. Some people just can't stand having cash...

One good thing that will possibly come out of this is the fact that many of these cars will have some good $$$ spent on them to restore them. It costs exactly the same amount to rebuild an RS motor than a regular non-RS motor (actually cheaper, since the RS P&Cs are a common upgrade). As the car's values increase, the amount spent on a restoration becomes less as a percentage of the overall value of the car. Previously far-gone, rusty 911Ss suddendly have a 2nd lease on life...

-Wayne

Re: Carrera RS Values...
 

Wayne,

I agree SCM is a great resource for collector car values, among other things. The statement you have written above about Carrera RS values comes from 2 recent SCM magazines. The first is Feb. 05, written by Jim Schrager in an article "Porsches and the Value Curve". Jim writes: "...the limited production 1973 Carrera RS (1590 made) moved sharply, to the point where very nice Touring models are $75,000-$85,000, with lightweight versions up to and over twice that." The second mention is in the May '05 edition in an article called "911 Specials:1973-1988". Here he writes about the Carrera RS: "The value of these cars have been moving skyward in the last six months, with starting prices now at $85,000 for the RSL Touring versions and well into the six-figure level for nice lightweight examples".

I traded emails with Jim several times about this just this afternoon and he makes the valid point that "SCM is commited to actual sale prices, not rumor mill stuff, and that puts the mag. somewhat slow in reporting bubble-type rapid increases until the prices hit the auctions."

I used the SCM Gold access function to check their data base for the last year and the B-J RS (#507) is the only verifiable auction sale of a '73 Carrera RS in any auction. So does one result make a market? I don't think so. It is much more complex than that.

I think prices have moved far past this one auction result for a +3 condition car. I have photos of the $85K RS for sale and it isn't pretty. It is a color change to a non Porsche color with a non matching motor that requires a full restoration. So does one car set the entry price too?

Seems to me that prices for the RS have gotten ahead of themselves and it will be interesting to look back from the future and determine if this period is like the late 80's or it is something different and more sustained. Doesn't matter to me I am not a speculator, I am a early 911 Porsche car nut that enjoys driving these cars for the same reasons that Don and Stacy mentioned. I also don't care if there are a bunch of look-a-likes out there either. I am in Indiana where there are only 2 road going '73 Carreras that I know of, mine and Jim's.

As he writes about the RS in the article about 911 Specials: "This was the first, and in many ways remains the most successful, of all the special production 911 cars"

Can't say that I agree w/ any of the arguments that clones affect value of real cars, I think that it's the other way around:

Clones are an indication of how valuable and desirable, (and out of reach to most), a particular model of car is.

You will never see clones of any ordinary cars, but the most valuable cars are generally the most cloned. Shelby Cobras and Mustangs, '69 Z-28s, etc.. spring to mind. Considering the value of a real, #s matching, original Z-28, '73 RSes have been cheap up until now. There are a thousand clones for every real Z-28, (at least), it hasn't affected the value of real ones in the least. Unless you think they would be even higher w/o the clones(?) :confused:

AFAIC, anyone who plays the collectible car market as an actual financial strategy, (their wealth depending on it), is a big idiot. The people that I know w/ good collections are mega-rich and just had to have the cars. One friend has a hanger full of #s matching, super-valuable cars, if they go up/down/sideways he could give a *****. :cool:

I can't say that I agree with what RS's are going for these days....but hey, what ever floats yer boat......

Personally I would feel weird having an RS and have it be worth so much I would have serious reservations about taking it out to the track and driving it the way it was designed to be driven.

IF I could afford to own one, I would probably be able to afford to build a high power replica that I could take out to the track...and it would probably out perform the original too....but that's another story altogether.

Mikey....well said.....

"...Yes impressive on the street but only fully appreciated at the track. Preserve your cars from track rash but do get a ride someday in a track prepped and well driven 911. Once you do you will find the euphoria of the street experience in a 911 doesn’t come close to challenging the potential of these cars, or you."

how true......:cool:

There is a truism from the collector car world that goes something like, "Just because a car is worth $200,000 (for example) doesn't mean you can do $200,000 worth of damage to it."
A 2.7 RS repair / rebuild costs are the SAME as any of our early cars, for the most part - SO if you have one, drive it, for crying out loud!!!
Just don't have it stolen or on fire if it is underinsured...;-)

True, true, true. I would much rather have an RS clone than an original, as I know that I can actually drive the car without worrying that it's worth more than my parent's house...

-Wayne

Nice 356s....especially open cars....have doubled in the last few years. I agree the weak US Dollar has a lot to do with it.

Just to add a little fuel to the fire from the British perspective....
Most of the '73 RSs advertised over here are price on application. I had therefore not realised until recently that the prices had soared to these levels. So I did a little phoning around last year. The general opinion was that there were no matching number cars available in the UK for less than 70K in any condition. That's about 140K in good old USDs. There tend to be no more than about 6 cars available at any one time. Prices have doubled in the last 4-5 years.

However it is the same situation with Ts Es and Ss. These cars have also doubled in price. You can change your dollar sign to pounds for these cars too.

Scarcity is part of the reason. I had been trying to convert a friend to 911 ownership for some time. We settled on 2.2 or 2.4 S as he wanted a reasonable amount of power. So I said right lets view some. I could only find one car for sale in the whole of the South of England. That was Italian (dry climate) and in beautiful condition but he could not live with the god awful brown colour. In the end he bought a 964RS. Different but still 100% driver's car and a rock solid investment. That was 2 years ago. Now it's worse.

For some strange reason prices for all these early cars are more hyped up in the UK than continental Europe (probably by 10-20%). Why I really do not know.

You are quite right about the abuse that cars get in Europe, even realatively well looked after UK RHD cars have had savage amounts of welding done on them. They get driven hard too on often bumpy, winding roads, along with occasional visits to the surrounding history. Same can be said for most of the German stuff. Personally I would avoid these cars. Better to pick up some US import that someone else has lost interest in. Hence my 2.2 T from that was imported into the UK from Pasadena in '97. Somebody in the UK had spent quite a bit on it but it was still a project and quite cheap. It is well on the way now though. A very sound, solid car, so far!!

But here is the crippler. As we know none of these '73 RSs were originally imported to the US. Instead they were subject to the adverse climate and high levels of abuse that we Europeans subject our cars to. Many (most?)of those currently over/highly valued cars have been rotted out and / or had significant accident damage and / or been used for racing / rallying. Why? People at the time reckoned that using an RS for comps was as good as cheating. A friend who owns a superb genuine 2.2 S/T reckons a significant number of European RSs were used for rallying in Ireland in the late '70s. If you have ever seen the roads out there you would know that this some form of automotive torture. So don't let the high price tag, shiny paint, and sales chat lead you to believe that the '73 you are looking at has been cherished for the last 32 years. The chances are the car has been abused one way or another contary to the prevailing bull.

Keith.

So.. what are your economic predictions regarding the euro and the dollar? It does not seem rosy for us in the near term. What factors will bring us closer to parity?
At this time, the europeans are getting that 25-30% discount on our stuff, so that really has been good for the sellers here- getting "top dollar"

Hmmm! Hard to predict and I have a background in economics!!! All that one can really say is that the exchange will fluctuate. The dollar may have further to go down and yes it will rebound. By how much and when are the only questions and that is not really an answer!!!

The reality is that generaly cars (new and used) have always been cheaper in the US even going back to the 70's when I first became interested. I don't think there has ever been a period when the reverse was true. Consumer goods have always been cheaper in the US. You pay more for health and education though. Things we take somewhat for granted in the UK. However I think that when you total all the out goings up that there is not such a great difference on either side of the atlantic. I have been to your great country a couple of times and would hope to do so again. We also have several American relations. I have often compared notes. I'm not sure that the average total purchasing power of the average Joe is that different on either side of the atlantic, just different proportions. It is probably just more marked at the extremes of abject wealth and poverty.

Although the dollar exchange is poor for you at the moment, I think it was nearer 3 to the UK pound during the '70s. This does not bide well for those of you aspiring to own an old 911 in the states though.

However recently muscle car values have skyrocketed in the states and in spite of the poor dollar value many are being repatriated to the US. Perhaps all these lovely classic cars just yearn to return to the place of their berth when they get old!!!

Keith.

Kieth, What was the dollar to pound sterling exchange rate in say, 2002? How about 1998 or '99? (If you remember). TIA. :cool:

Hi Denis,

Check out this link. It will generate graphs of exchange rates back to 1971. Run it for USD / GBP.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html

The dollar was 2.4/pound in '71 and increased in value through the '70s and early '80s until it was nearly one for one. Then it bounced back and has been fluctuating between 1.4 and 1.9 ever since.

In '98 when my 911 T was imported into the UK it was 1.6.

I remember old Porsches and VWs coming into the UK 20 years ago and they have been coming in ever since. Look on the bright side though. All those RSs that you have in the States were imported fairly recently as classics thus depleting our European stock of what is a rare car. I understand that they changed the law allowing non fedralized classic cars into the US. When did they change that and how old does it have to be for exemption?


BFN

Keith

It seems to me that the prices on Carrera RS cars are much higher now than in 2005. ;)

It also seems that the Pound is higher versus the dollar than in 2005.

And Sports Car Market is still the best collector car magazine.

And home prices are finally lower. :D

I've just finished reading this resurrected thread; hadn't seen it before today. Lots of great comments, but I'll add my own perspective as a long-time RS owner.

I bought my RS during the "grey market" peak in 1984. I was looking for a non-US version, either a 73RS or a 76-77 Carrera. I found a 73RS first, proving once again that luck often trumps smarts! The exchange rate at the time was something like 3 DM to the dollar, which made the car very affordable in dollars. That's something that's gone dramatically in the reverse direction of late (I won't say what I paid for the car to avoid making people sick...). My guess is that the current exchange rates will contribute to the repatriation of many cars that made it to the US in the 80's.

The thread talks about the Ferrari bubble in the late 80's. Actually I think it was collector cars generally, including cars such as the 73 RS. I had someone in that period make repeated offers to me in the $80k range. I didn't bite, and during the next 5 or so years I figure the value dipped to around $40k based on comparable sales. Given inflation, the $80k value is about where they are today (3.5% inflation over 20 years doubles the price). So we're basically right back to the late 80's as near as I can tell, for the RS at least...

So is this another bubble? Hard to say (although the cooling in the American muscle car market illustrates that prices can drop). I can say that as a "regular guy" with a car now valued in the stratosphere (and way beyond my means to buy one today), I do worry- do I have it insured for the correct amount; what if I get rear-ended and the original case is destroyed, etc.). But after having it so long it's basically part of the family, and I still enjoy driving it and maintaining it, and I try to keep in perspective what I paid for and not what it's worth.

And I still love that amazing kick in the ass from 4500 to redline!

Jeff

Thanks for contributing to this thread. But you cannot post regarding your real RS without pictures!!!;)

Nice!

Wayne, shouldn't you move this the "marketplace" forum? :))

Just kidding.

Cheers