The Boxster Effect

[Hladun]

It seems that every Boxster ever made is now for sale. On cars.com I get a count of 1,500 in the US and that may be just the search limit and not the total number of cars for sale. With this many cars for sale, I can see prices dropping further on Boxsters and at some point 911 prices will have to be impacted as well.

What gives here? Was it all rentals by unappreciative types that dumped the cars once the leases were up? Do people just get tired of the limitations of convertibles? Fear of maintenance costs once they’re off warranty?

The real estate collapse combined with the “Boxster effect” should produce some very attractive prices on Porsches, unless you own one that is!

[Rot 911]

The model is "Boxster" not "Boxter."

[DW SD]

Are you buying or selling?

Good luck! See any other commodoties trends :-) ???

Doug

[pwd72s]

One I think is happening? Nice early 911 varients seem to be coming out of the woodwork...can't say that prices are tumbling, but maybe people are thinking that the price escalation of the longnoses has peaked? Boxsters? Yep, tons of them for sale up here, every morn's ads in our state's largest newspaper is full of Boxsters...this morn, even ads for a couple of hardtop boxsters, aka/Cayman...makes me wonder why people would buy, then be willing to sell at a discount, this car...

[JP911]

I don't think dropping boxster prices will drive down 911 prices per se. Dropping 996 prices have had little effect on 993 prices. In fact, you can purchase an early 996 for less than a later 993.

[ovilla]

Yeah, I've seen prices in the mid to high teens here in Chicago. I think that Boxsters just came out at a time when the BMW and Miata's were still getting all of the attention so a lot of folks considered it as an alternative. Now a lot of those same people are looking at the new Pontiac and Saturn "roadsters" or the little Benz. It's funny though how the latest Boxster has caught my eye. Going back to the round headlights makes me like the new 911's too. I used to hate anything after the 993 but now I find myself looking at new 911's again.

[Elombard]

The earliest boxsters are 10 years old now. So they have almost all changed hands at least once, most twice. I guess the more owners the more they can stomach the depreciation.

I also feel like this is the best time of year to buy. Seems like every year I see alot of "deals" around this time??

[Wayne 962]

Originally posted by JP911
Dropping 996 prices have had little effect on 993 prices.

I disagree. Only a few short years ago, it was tough to find a 993 under $40K. Now they are very commonly found in the $25K range. The 996 cars are dropping in price - 1999 models can be had for under $30K just about anywhere (I'm looking for one right now, so I know first hand). These are still good, low-mileage cars (50K) that are not basket cases either. The market is just going very soft for them right now because they made a whole lot of them. Same thing with the 996 Turbo - you can pick up a 2001 996 Turbo for $65K (yes, guaranteed, I looked at one a few weeks ago at this price - one sold for $70K at the German AutoFest two days ago). Yet, there are people who think their 1989 Turbo is worth $50K - just doesn't make much sense.

Early cars (pre-1973) will hold their values for now, assuming that the real estate crash doesn't affect them too much. 1974-1998 should be prepared for a tumble as the 996 prices push down the prices of the earlier cars - the 993 will not be exempt. Of course 1987-89 and 1995-98 will hold their value better than other models, but they will still face downward pressure.

I think a big price correction in the entire market is coming as the 996s come up for sale, and the real estate market adjusts, *and* the adjustable ARM loans start to adjust upwards...

But, a 911 has never been a good financial investment from day one...

-Wayne

[quaz]

I have to put my 2 cents in here. I have been watching this for a while because I like to buy cars when they bottom out in the depreciation department. Drive them for 3-4 years and sell them for what I bought them for. I just loose out on cost of maintenance and mods.

Personally I think Boxsters are at about the bottom. They are a sport convertable. They happen to be Porsches(not 911s), but even the Ses were never really supercars. So like the 968, 951, and even the 928s they will all fall down to the 10-20K range depending on color, year and options. However, because they are still Porsches and topless they will never become worthless like some 914s and 924s.

Now here is my prediction....the 996 with be the next 74-77 911(flame suit on). They will tumble fast in value and never be very desirable. Why??????they are the mistake 911 at this point. Watercooled, narrow body, and first problematic 911s in quite some time (in perseption anyway). At least the 74-77s could be updated to look like an SC or turbo. Without major mods the 996s will always just look like 996s. The 993s have that classic 911 look and the 997 is the continuation of that. It is like the 996 was thrown in there hap-hazardly. So the 993s, as the last of the aircooled cars should hold their values pretty well. Also why the last air cooled turbos are still desirable.

I know I have made some pretty bold statements there, but classic new 911 buyers are a pretty weird crowd. I know quite a few guys with 996s and 997s and they primarily own the cars for image. Never seen a track and are daily driven to work. Well the 993s and 997s just looks the image better. That is what will keep their values up.

[jkap]

Originally posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts
The market is just going very soft for them right now because they made a whole lot of them.

Wayne's statement here is the key. There are a huge number of these cars and, in the case of the Boxster, it is not an "icon" car. What has saved nearly all 911s is the fact that Porsche left the car largely unchanged from the '69s through the 993s. The largest reason the cars in that range hold their value (especially the '69 to '89) is the fact that there are so relatively few of them. Demand has to fall to nearly zero before the value plumets.

The 996, in my opinion, is a doomed car. Inferior to the 997 in nearly every way. Need proof? How many people refer to them as 911s? Most enthusiasts call them 996s not to differentiate a model of 911 as in 930, 964, 993, but rather out of almost a disdain for the car. I am willing to bet that most owners of 996s on this board can't wait to trade up to a 997, and those who are in the market (Wayne excluded, he has money to make ) are buying them as something to use until they can afford a 997!

With so many 996s and early boxsters out there, combined with the loss of icon status, what will keep the value of these cars up?

The 997 may be a different story, provided Porsche finds a way to keep the body largely unchanged for the next 30 years or so like they did with the aircoolers.

Lastly, especially with regard to the Boxster and the 996, this type of value loss is very common, even for the likes of Ferrari and Laborghini. Need proof? Look at the value of a Ferrari 308 once, like the one in Magnum PI, or an early Countach. A patient person could find one of these for a rediculously low price despite their rarity, though why you would want one would be a mystery to me.

So, those of you who own or are about to own a 996 or any boxster.....my advice is.........use it up!! They are great cars, a blast to drive, and fairly reliable for the performance you get. Just dont bother protecting it and expect depreciation like you would in a BMW or Mercedes cause that is, more or less, what Porsche has become.

[niner11]

The boxster slide is just getting going. Autotrader shows 2,802 for sale right now. You could go down the list just low balling people...if you really want one.... and it's not even winter yet! I like what it's doing to the 996 values now but I'm going to sit this one out for about a year or so.

Just a point: I agree with the weak housing market and used porsche values but the price of gas has almost nothing to do with the value of our cars.

[Wayne 962]

Originally posted by quaz
I know I have made some pretty bold statements there, but classic new 911 buyers are a pretty weird crowd. I know quite a few guys with 996s and 997s and they primarily own the cars for image. Never seen a track and are daily driven to work. Well the 993s and 997s just looks the image better. That is what will keep their values up.

This has been true with every 911 - from 1974 to present. The newer ones are only affordable by a certain group of people, and then the rest of us can buy them after a few years...

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally posted by quaz
Now here is my prediction....the 996 with be the next 74-77 911(flame suit on). They will tumble fast in value and never be very desirable. Why??????they are the mistake 911 at this point. Watercooled, narrow body, and first problematic 911s in quite some time (in perseption anyway).

Most people who say this have never driven a 996. Porsche has sold a TON of these cars for a reason - they are good performers and relatively good looking cars (not weird looking like a Z4 or Lotus Elise). Porsche has had great commercial success with both the Boxster and the 996 - I do not think that they will become the red herrings in the near future - in fact, I think that the Boxsters will be *the* DIY car in the near future. Fun, quick, easy to upgrade (install a 911 engine), and now, cheap!

-Wayne

[Christien]

I'll throw another thought out there - the boxster is ultimately a bit of a disappointment. Performance-wise, for the cost of the car you can get a lot more bang for the buck. My first thought is of a 350Z, but I'm sure there are others. Sure it's peppy, good looking, convertible but I think those are novelties that wear off.

I'll believe the 996 has truly tanked when someone offers me a straight-up trade for my 72!

On the image-side, I couldn't agree more that going back to the round headlights is a HUGE improvement with the 997. Small but significant. I HATE the 996/boxster headlights.

[Wayne 962]

Funny how you guys keep bashing the 996. For those who don't know the 996 and the 997 are basically the same exact car. The engine is the same (slightly bigger), and the body style is very, very, very similar. The interior is improved, which was indeed lacking on the 996.

-Wayne

[Todd Simpson]

I think that the Boxsters will be *the* DIY car in the near future.

So Wayne-When is the Boxster book coming out? I know you didn't buy one for nothing.

[Christien]

Originally posted by CS119laCoS
No, the body style isn't very, very similar.

I gotta disagree. To an enthusiast who knows every corner of a car, yes, the bodies are quite distinct. However to the majority of modern 911 buyers they're more or less identical. They're different in ways that one year's Ford Taurus is different from the next. The main lines are still there. Most people notice the differences in 911s in probably 3 stages - SC/Carrera, 993 and 996/997. Maybe even grouping the 993 in with the 996/997.

I would think any new model from any car maker would drive down the values of the preceding model - that just makes sense.

[VincentVega]

Either way, Boxsters keep dropping in price. I was keeping an eye on 97-98's, but now might be looking at an early S. This winter, next spring, who knows.

[Zeke]

Boxster a DIY car??? Yeah, either stripped for the track or by an IT person. There's more wires and boxes in my Boxster in the front, in the back and under the seats than I've ever seen on a car. When that stuff goes away (and I caught a passenger seat rubbing on the harness issue that was almost thru the insulation, can you imagine what that would have been like when 20 wires welded into a bundle???!!!), these are going to be monsters.

Yeah, they made and sold 25,000 some odd cars each year from the onset in '97. That has to have something to do with it.

People have been waxing philoshoical for some time now about the direction of Porsche AG. Too big, too greedy, too diversified. Well, I have to agree to the extent that I know about things like this. I don't know how one can have a coveted, fine, estate bottled wine and make 100's of 1000's of cases and sell it everywhere, no matter what the price. Maybe the Boxster thing is the harbinger of things to come. It was the first high production car that brought huge revenues back to the factory when things were pretty slim. Could they have cannibalized their market?

Nice spelling, eh? "philosophical!"

[rusnak]

milt, that was a great post.