Whats going to happen to the new cars in 20-30 years

[PK 77 911]

With all the electronic issues and cost to maintain the new cars later in their life. Will anyone want them. I have a 2000 M5 at 85,000.00 miles and I am thinking that it may be time to sell it and it doesn't even have any issues. Who can work on them competently other than experienced techs. I have started to plan the rebuild of my 84 3.2 myself. Would I attempt the rebuild of my M5 motor? Not on your life.

I'm interested in your comments on this topic. It was mentioned many times in the 911 Lemon thread.

PK
84 911 Cab
e39 M5

[A&F]

I don't think you have a "modern" car issue on your hands, just a "european maintenance nightmare". Not all old cars are "simple" to work on. Just look at a Testarossa or a Maserati Biturbo. An M5 is going to fall into that group instead of the "Mustang 302" group.

Modern cars will also not be as big a headache in 30 years. I'm willing to be a C7 will have less issues in 30 years compared to what your '84 3.2 has right now. Heck, I'm willing to bet it won't even need a rebuild, unlike your 3.2.

It's like all the old farts complaining about fuel-injection. At the end of the day, it's far superior and actually far easier to tune and maintain. You just need to understand what you are looking at.

[Bill Douglas]

A young guy I know was working on a high end Subaru (high end for Subaru) and he was putting jumpers and so on, on the chips. Basically he was saying to the main computer "Everything is fine and run at you optimum." What we need is a huge override.

[porwolf]

What's going to happen to the new cars in 20-30 years?

They would have to be a lot more fuel efficient. In 984 one gallon of gas cost $1.20. In 30 years it probably will be between $12.- to $20.-. The end of gas guzzlers?

[sc_rufctr]

Electric cars will become common place and that means we'll be able to drive our decadent, petrol old school 911 indefinitely. Especially the non OEM computer dependent ones.
That means anything pre 964 but even then you could easily convert even the last 993 to after market EFI

Yah for electric cars!

[H-viken]

Originally Posted by porwolf

What's going to happen to the new cars in 20-30 years?

They would have to be a lot more fuel efficient. In 984 one gallon of gas cost $1.20. In 30 years it probably will be between $12.- to $20.-. The end of gas guzzlers?

Not necessarily. As alternative fuels gain a foothold and fuel consumption on modern cars goes down, prices may not soar as much as one might fear. Personally I think there is a bigger risk of "gas guzzler" getting banned due to environmental legislation.

(I remember buying gas in San Diego at 99 cents a gallon in 1997 )

/Johan

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by A&F

I don't think you have a "modern" car issue on your hands, just a "european maintenance nightmare". Not all old cars are "simple" to work on. Just look at a Testarossa or a Maserati Biturbo. An M5 is going to fall into that group instead of the "Mustang 302" group.

Modern cars will also not be as big a headache in 30 years. I'm willing to be a C7 will have less issues in 30 years compared to what your '84 3.2 has right now. Heck, I'm willing to bet it won't even need a rebuild, unlike your 3.2.

It's like all the old farts complaining about fuel-injection. At the end of the day, it's far superior and actually far easier to tune and maintain. You just need to understand what you are looking at.

My neighbor DIYs his Testarossa. A few years ago I helped him get his engine out so he could replace the clutch package. He's got money so he DIYs by choice not necessity.
The thing that struck me the most is how straight forward to whole thing is.

He's actually thinking about converting it to MOTEC EFI and uses off the shelf non Ferrari parts when he can. No biggy really

[KNS]

Occasionally you'll hear stories of a 997 or 335i going back to the dealer multiple times for diagnosis to find a software gremlin (windows keep rolling down when the windshield wipers get turned on or something like that). Visit after visit and the techs and even the field reps can't figure it out.

Those are the kind of stories that would keep me owning a 991 long term (or ever, really). There was a big change from the 996 to the 997 regarding the way the cars are wired, even changing a dead battery is more involved than swapping in a replacement (the car has to "recognize" the new battery, at least in the new BMWs). Same with many other modern cars these days.

[Jack Stands]

I don't imagine as many engine issues, but would worry more about the computer systems that are controlling more and more systems in our cars.

The days of +12 volts and a ground are long gone, and these new multiplexed systems are going to be a nightmare when age and corrosion start taking their toll.

[NYNick]

There will always be somebody who knows how to work on an older car...always.

Anyway, I'll be dead in 30 years.

Nick

[Elombard]

I think the gas might go like R12 Freon. At first when they started switching over it was hard to get and expensive. Last I checked R12 is now cheap and easy to get because there is very low demand.

[Jerome74911S]

When cars are all electric who will need gas? They won't 'sell' something for which there is no market, so what are gasoline powered cars going to do? Become obsolete lawn ornaments? Gas won't get cheaper because demand is down - gas will finally be absent from the scene. Good thing I'm old already.

[Quicksilver]

Everyone is missing the issues with long life in the newer cars...

Plastic

The plastic in every square inch of the interior is going to continue to harden until every bit of it cracks and crumbles. If the plastic was fiber reinforced it would be ok but that isn't the way anyone would build a car because there is a BIG financial incentive to make them self destruct after a reasonable service life.

Cars now days are disposable. Even the "green" cars aren't green for that exact reason.

[CountD]

Originally Posted by Quicksilver

Everyone is missing the issues with long life in the newer cars...

Plastic

The plastic in every square inch of the interior is going to continue to harden until every bit of it cracks and crumbles. If the plastic was fiber reinforced it would be ok but that isn't the way anyone would build a car because there is a BIG financial incentive to make them self destruct after a reasonable service life.

Cars now days are disposable. Even the "green" cars aren't green for that exact reason.

This is so true. The plastic on my BMW Z3 is starting to crack, crumble, and just plain deteriorate bigtime in the interior. All these cars - from '90 until now will fall apart and many owners will come to their senses and move on.

[Lapkritis]

In 20-30yrs you'll be able to 3D print replacement plastic parts at home so no big deal.

Electronics and controllers? I expect there will be retrofit adapters and harnesses to have state of the art modern electronics commanding systems that today are done by multiple controllers. Possibly replacing failed controllers with near field or blue tooth communications and eliminating the crusty rotted harnesses entirely.

This will allow the interface of choice to be run on the legacy displays that we're seeing appear in most new car dash boards.

I don't think it will be as grim as some imagine. Humans are creative and if they find something that attracts them and speaks to their souls, they'll preserve or improve it.

[Marine Blue]

Modern cars will survive just as the older cars have survived. But due to the costs of maintaing the electronics and adjustable suspensions etc. people will be pickier about what they choose to keep around and maintain. It will have to be a truly unique car or have a strong sentimental value which these days will be less and less common.

Having said that, when I ordered my Spyder I intentionally ordered it with the most basic options to keep things simple and much easier to maintain over the long haul. For example, no turning xenon lights which have moving parts and cost lots to replace. No adjustable suspension, minimal electronics and the other benefit on the Spyder is a manual top so I can replace it in a matter of two minutes if my current one breaks.

The rest should be easy enough to maintain either myself or by a competent mechanic.

THe nice thing is that I don't need to mess with the fuel injection or valves settings, the computer does it for me and tells me when something is amiss.

[Bob Kontak]

Originally Posted by Marine Blue

THe nice thing is that I don't need to mess with the fuel injection or valves settings, the computer does it for me and tells me when something is amiss.

This is pretty sweet. No idle adjustments, either.

OBDII is 16 years old. Suspect in 20 years there will be a more advanced diagnostic system uniform to all cars. Systems where you can specifically identify the faulty component with the $50 reader. There are some specific codes now but the generic codes like "Lean Bank 1" coupled with "Lean Bank 2" means you have about six things to check with measurement tools on top of the carb cleaner spray looking for vacuum leaks.

If I could have one thing changed, it would be a uniform design set for electrical couplings.

[Trackrash]

Originally Posted by Bob Kontak

This is pretty sweet. No idle adjustments, either.

OBDII is 16 years old. Suspect in 20 years there will be a more advanced diagnostic system uniform to all cars. Systems where you can specifically identify the faulty component with the $50 reader. There are some specific codes now but the generic codes like "Lean Bank 1" coupled with "Lean Bank 2" means you have about six things to check with measurement tools on top of the carb cleaner spray looking for vacuum leaks.

If I could have one thing changed, it would be a uniform design set for electrical couplings.

Yea, I wish. You are right that the diagnostics will be better. In fact on new cars the DEALER can do a real good job at the diagnostics. Problem is you and I can't access them with out expensive proprietary equipment.
Yea, I wish a $50 reader would be universally available. We will see.

[Bob Kontak]

Originally Posted by Trackrash

In fact on new cars the DEALER can do a real good job at the diagnostics.

Dropping the $100 for a real reading now and then can be well worth it.

Maybe someday there will be a $XX "per day/week/year" charge for feeding your cars running info data through the internet and having them e-mail the repair list to you.

[RDM]

I remember the 'zakt same discussion when breakerless ignition first became widespread. And when fuel injection began to come down from the high performance world to everyday cars. How will people possibly keep these immensely complex vehicles running in ten or twenty years? We managed, and so will those who come after us.