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fast_e_man fast_e_man is offline
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: Morrison, Colorado
Posts: 634
Wet thumb in the air:

$3M pretax savings, assuming 4% annual withdrawal yields $120k/year. That's "Openers" for what I'd like to do when I retire. Prefer to hold off on SS, unless you feel you can make >$8% annual return on principal that would otherwise remain in savings if you elect early SS.

Me personally, I want the $3M + the pension from my 35 years with my employer, at the time I retire.

Not interested in planning a financial legacy for the kids. If there are assets remaining that's fine, just don't plan to manage my financial affairs to assure a legacy.

I built a retirement budget, with uncertainty for health care escalation. Then calculated average CAGR scenarios for my investments, with and without inflation. Did some analysis of the stock market since great depression and looked at market CAGR with inflation since then, in 10 year walking windows. looked at market 10, 20, and 30 year average CAGR. We've had some bad decades, but not for 15 years and longer. I concluded a CAGR of 1.5% ave above inflation is reasonable expectation over a 20 year retirement horizon, except if a Black Swan event happens. So, for a 1.5% CAGR, at age 95 I'll have roughly what I have now in portfolio principal.

So, I think I'm conservative - up to a point, although my plan is not robust to Tabs weighing in with a larger downside risk than I've modeled.
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96 993 Cab, 73E Targa, 72S Targa

Last edited by fast_e_man; 09-05-2018 at 07:10 PM.. Reason: added more detail
Old 09-05-2018, 06:46 PM
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