[Porsche-O-Phile]

I think there may be one looming. There is a humongous bubble in the stock market today and there’s also a bubble that’s formed in the RE market and worse still we still aren’t “really” recovered from how bad 2008-09 was.

We’re fully ten years out from that recession and the federal reserve still has VERY low interest rates and billions of dollars of junk / bad / “subprime” debt on its books (and will for decades) created during the stupidity of the housing bubble of the mid-2000s. While I don’t see what’s coming as catastrophic, I think it will last longer than it “should” and be slower to recover than has been the case historically simply because the federal reserve doesn’t have the tools to juice the economy when needed - they used every tool in the toolbox to keep the ship afloat during the time from 2008-2012 or so and has STILL (ten years later!) been reluctant to raise rates. We also STILL are seeing anemic wage growth. Only very recently has there been an uptick in salaries... It has taken a very, very long time to haplen and won’t have much time to “marinate” before there is downward pressure on salaries again. That can’t help matters... There’s a lot of money out there but most of it is consolidated with the very, very wealthy. None of that helps. I suspect in the next 2-3 years there will be a downturn for a year or so, followed by sloooooooow, lackluster growth (think 2013-2016).