[jyl]

Check out the different components of CPI. Services CPI is running around 4-5% (this is from memory, not exact), shelter CPI also fairly high (can't recall exactly), but goods CPI is running very low with durable goods especially low (I want to say 1% ish). The weighting, and hedonic (quality) adjustments are combining to produce an overall CPI under 2%.

Basically this is rising prices for things "produced" in the US vs not rising prices for things imported (e.g. from low cost countries like China).

A major increase in tariffs or a major shift from production in low cost countries to high cost US production can disrupt this low inflation situation.