Quote:
Originally Posted by stomachmonkey
These models help to explain it visually.
Scroll down for different models ranged by isolation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
BTW, those models are not static animations, the movements of the infected are random every time you rerun a model.
And for those who keep trotting out comparisons to the common flu, which we generally have a vaccine for and ~50% of the population gets, that vaccinated population replaces socially isolated people in these models. |
That is an entertaining and colorful demonstration, but at first glance, I see a lot of problems with it. Firstly, the social distancing means that some people will isolate themselves from getting it (like we are at home - no contact with *anyone*). Secondly, all of the simulations end and/or assume that 100% of the population will get it. If that is the case, then it's the worst-case scenario, which is somewhere on the order of 500,000 to a million deaths in the United States alone.
The models and colorful dancing balls could be more accurate if a bunch of them turned black, indicating deaths. Or red, indicating ICU beds occupied. In addition, it's not yet known that recovery = immunity. There have been suggestions (mostly criticizing the UK approach of looking for "herd immunity") that people who have recovered from this virus may be susceptible to it again during the "second wave."
A bit unnerving - no one knows or has any real clue right now. I guess it could be much worse, it could kill 10%-50% like some of the other viruses have...
-Wayne