Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne 962
That is an entertaining and colorful demonstration, but at first glance, I see a lot of problems with it. Firstly, the social distancing means that some people will isolate themselves from getting it (like we are at home - no contact with *anyone*). Secondly, all of the simulations end and/or assume that 100% of the population will get it. If that is the case, then it's the worst-case scenario, which is somewhere on the order of 500,000 to a million deaths in the United States alone.
The models and colorful dancing balls could be more accurate if a bunch of them turned black, indicating deaths. Or red, indicating ICU beds occupied. In addition, it's not yet known that recovery = immunity. There have been suggestions (mostly criticizing the UK approach of looking for "herd immunity") that people who have recovered from this virus may be susceptible to it again during the "second wave."
A bit unnerving - no one knows or has any real clue right now. I guess it could be much worse, it could kill 10%-50% like some of the other viruses have...
-Wayne
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Nothing wrong with those models, they show what they are intended to show.
How isolation measures impact the speed of spread in a given population.
That’s it.
As far as assumptions, unless someone comes up with a vaccine tomorrow we are all getting this, it’s going to be close to 100% infection rate.
The only thing we can do right now is to try and stretch it out so our healthcare resources don’t get overwhelmed which is all the models are illustrating.