https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354
Similar debates took place 100 years ago. Some cities didn’t do much NPI (that’s the epidemiologist term for social distancing), or waited to do it, or lifted it quickly, or . . . and there actually a lot of data about the outcomes. The data isn’t textbook clean of course, but the pattern is clear enough.
I read about what my city, Portland, did back then. The first case was 10/3/1918, NPI was applied, then lifted in November, everyone partied (end of WW1, ya know), things got a lot worse, NPI went back on, virus finally faded away in January.
NPI back then was less effective than now. Dance hall, churches, theaters were closed, but streetcars kept running, bars and barbers were open. There wasn’t Amazon, there might have been grocery delivery. Masks were controversial, eventually got used but quite late. And of course there was no testing, no treatment, no one knew what a virus was, being in hospital basically meant a bed and someone watching you and mopping your brow.
Even with the weak NPI, there was a decent relationship between NPI timing and severity, and death peak timing and total deaths.
I think many states have been very effective at NPI this time around. At the risk of bragging, Oregon has held deaths down to only 78 and hospitalizations to only 488 (although, that means 16% of the hospitalized die - erp). We have had some flag toting protestors, but 82% of the population support the social distancing so it will be eased and lifted based on criteria being met, not protests and pressure. However, the state hasn’t done a great job publicizing what the criteria are - they have stated them, but not gotten the word out very well. They need to do s better job communicating.
Other states don’t seem to be doing NPI that effectively. I mean beyond the obvious NY, NJ, MA, etc. Those curves aren’t looking too flat to me. Still, some of them will open up the critical life sustaining parts of the economy - like bowling alleys and beaches. I’d expect history to repeat itself.